Another Storm . . .

How's this to make the argument in favor of climate change being real?  Yesterday, we had a major winter storm in the fall that produced spring-like temperatures and summerlike thunderstorms along the East Coast even as it produced snow in Ohio.  And New England got hit especially hard, with downed trees and power lines all over the place.

Above is an actual picture of the actual storm.

No power outage here, but it was touch and go for awhile.

Oh yeah, yesterday was the last day of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.  Of the thirty-one tropical depressions that formed this year, only one failed to become a named storm.  Thirteen of the tropical cyclones that formed became hurricanes, and six of those hurricanes reached Category 3 or higher  The last hurricane, Iota, became the first November Category 5 storm in decades and slammed Central America, an area that had already been hit by a hurricane a couple of weeks earlier.  Guatemala and Nicaragua have been set back at least a couple hundred years.  Not that Louisiana, also hit by multiple storms this year, fared all that much better.

And although we have to worry about getting through winter before we start worrying about the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the almanacs ensure that it's never too early to start fretting about it.  It seems that the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmer's Almanac are both forecasting a hurricane threat for the Northeast in August 2021; the only difference between them is that they're about a week off from each other.  I couldn't help but notice, though, that the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts this hypothetical hurricane to affect the Northeast at almost the exact same time that Tropical Storm Isaias - which had made landfall in North Carolina as a hurricane - affected the Northeast.  So maybe it's just basing its forecast on what happened before.  

Oh yeah, the Old Farmer's Almanac is also predicting a tropical storm threat for the region in September 2021.

And despite predictions of a mild winter for this coming year, there's always the chance of borderline freezing weather that might produce an ice storm.

Even with COVID vaccines becoming available in 2021, we have to deal with a changing climate that no one can provide immunization for.

A New World Record

Tropical Storm Eta has been quite erratic, but those of us in the Northeast can breathe easy, as it is expected to weaken in the eastern Gulf of Mexico after having affected southern Florida as it moves north likely dissipating by the weekend.

But - the hurricane season is still not winding down.  A subtropical cyclone named Theta formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  This marks the twenty-ninth Atlantic cyclone, setting an all new record for the most storms in the an Atlantic hurricane second ever.  Ever!

Did I happen to mention that a thirtieth storm is likely to form in the Caribbean this week?

The good news for the U.S. is that this thirtieth storm likely won't hit the lower forty-eight.  The bad news is that the same part of Central America affected by Eta will likely have have to deal with this as-yet unformed storm - to be called Iota.

Only eight cyclones formed in 2014, the last time the current batch of names was used, and now we could be getting quadruple that.  By the time this season is over, we may end up having more tropical systems this year than Baskin-Robbins has ice cream flavors.

This is all preferable to the pandemic, though.  At least storms come and go. COVID-19 will likely always be with us. 😞

Not Another Hurricane!

Hurricane fatigue is quickly replacing COVID fatigue in America.  The latest tropical cyclone to form is Zeta, expected to be a hurricane or a strong tropical storm when it makes landfall this week . . . in Louisiana, a state that has already seen four tropical systems make landfall there his year.

If Biden is elected President, Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards should become his FEMA administrator.  He already has the experience.

This storm will be a repeat of Delta, which hit Louisiana and ended up causing a lot of rain for New Jersey.  Zeta will follow the same course.

And that's not all.  The Global Forecast System, you may recall, predicted a hurricane that would affect the New York area today, October 26.  That isn't happening, of course, but it's been stubbornly predicting that some sort of tropical system will affect the East Coast in the first half of November.  One projection showed a storm hitting the New York City area with bull's-eye precision on Saturday, November 7.  Subsequent runs have taken that off the table, but they have still been showing a storm coming out of the Caribbean and possibly affecting Florida before going either out to sea or moving up the I-95 corridor into the Carolinas by November 10, suggesting that the storm could affect the Northeast in time for Veterans' Day.  Funny, though, how the GFS is always projecting a hurricane affecting the East Coat sixteen days from whenever I look at it . . .  

Ten tropical cyclones will have made landfall in the U.S. this year, a new record - four of them, as noted, in Louisiana.  Zeta will make it five and eleven, respectively.  Zeta is the 27th named storm of 2020, bringing it behind only the 2005 season, which had 28 named storms.  (I might have said on this blog that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had 26 named storms.  I was wrong, but not as wrong as we will be if we guess that this season won't tie or break that record. 😨 )

Less Hurricane Anxiety

It's amazing how these weather computer projections can change.  Before the weekend started, I was scared to death of a major hurricane coming up the East Coast and literally hitting me where I live. Now look at this map from the Global Forecast System (GFS), showing 1:00 P.M. Eastern time on Monday, October 26, from today's 06z run!

While it shows a large swath of rain of snow coming in across the continent (which would affect my area by Wednesday, October 28), it does not show that hypothetical Western Caribbean storm affecting the Eastern seaboard.  In fact, it doesn't show any such storm; while a hurricane is expected to form out in the Atlantic near Bermuda but likely not to affect land, the hurricane that forecasters thought would develop from the area of the Caribbean Sea of the coast of Nicaragua is completely non-existent.  Although something could still form near Central America, the shift in the jet stream dip from east to west would likely preclude any such storm reaching the Northeast as Sandy did eight years ago.  The current trends on the GFS have been consistent for several runs.  And the National Hurricane Center has lessened the chance of anything forming in that part of the Atlantic basin to near nil.

Although Mike Seidel on The Weather Channel insists the chance will still go up.

On the other hand, here's what new York meteorologist Joe Cioffi had to say about all of this: "Another tropical storm could develop in the Northwest Caribbean and it has been one that weather models have been showing for the last 10 days and weather chatterers on social media have played up for all sorts of apocalyptic outcomes. Yes, it is 2020, but overnight we see that models have lost the idea of a hurricane moving up the coast and show that anything that forms in the Northwest Caribbean could get trapped there. We suggest that until there is something that develops, we will focus attention on what is actually there and not what could be."

Although Mike Seidel on The Weather Channel will continue focusing on what could be.

Vivian Brown's departure from The Weather Chanel wasn't the only reason I stopped watching that channel so much. 😛 

More Hurricane Anxiety

I've been looking at the GFS weather projection over various runs, and until the 06z run today, I've been hopeful that a possible hurricane forming over the Western Caribbean and heading northeast would stay out at sea and giveNew Jersey only some heavy rain at best.  But the 06z run today gave me new fears for the final week of October.

This is the GFS's latest projection for 8. P.M. Eastern time, Monday, October 26  It shows the storm out at sea and only giving New Jersey some rain.  That's not what scares me.  Also, you'll notice a band of rain coming in from the west which may merge with the tropical system out at sea or over the Canadian Maritimes.  But even though the next several runs may bring the tropical storm closer to the U.S. East Coast, causing a Sandy-like superstorm. that's not what scares me - yet.

No, what scares me is what could happen after this storm pulls away!

This is the GFS's latest projection for 2 P.M. Eastern time the next day, Tuesday, October 27, showing a storm forming in the Carolinas coming right after the hurricane and dumping more rain on New Jersey, and even snow in the interior Northeast - with some snow in northwestern New Jersey by the time it pulls out!

This is the first time the GFS has shown such a scenario. If these two separate systems were to merge sooner and farther to the south, we could have something that could dwarf Sandy!

The 06z run of the GFS isn't the most reliable one, though, and a friend of mine on social media has reminded me that these projections are just for guidance  . . . and the nature of this beast  will depend steering currents and ocean temperatures.  Not just in the Caribbean, but in the northwestern Atlantic as well, where the water is cooler.

Hang on.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

The dueling presidential campaign town halls? Relax, I'll get to that . . ..

Hurricane Anxiety

Now here's something to get nervous about.

Hurricane Delta is now a remnant dumping rain in northern New Jersey, and despite earlier predictions of a deluge, the rain isn't too bad today.  Ironically, the Old Farmer's Almanac predicted a hurricane threat for the Northeast for this time in 2020, and the threat for this time turned out not to be a hurricane but what was left of one.

But hurricane season isn't over yet.  And October has become a month to dread in hurricane season, thanks to Sandy in 2012 and Matthew in 2016.  And there's reason to believe that we could have a hurricane similar to Sandy that could affect us at the same time of the month.  It could be even worse than Sandy, in fact.  

Here it is. 

This is the latest run from the GFS weather projection showing a Category 2 storm about a hundred miles off the New Jersey coast at 8:00 PM Eastern time, Monday, October 26.  The GFS sees this storm forming from a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea, where most tropical systems - including Sandy -  form at this time of year.  It wouldn't hit New Jersey directly - in this run, it would make landfall near Boston, in fact - but it could cause enough wind and rain to cause a whole lot of problems in the Garden State, possibly even a power outage that could rival the massive outages Sandy caused eight years ago.  Earlier projections showed this storm hearing out to sea father south, but this one proves that another storm like Sandy in late October of 2020 is not only possible, it could be likely.

There are a few mitigating factors. First of all, this is a 06z run, and those GFS runs tend to be less reliable than others.  Secondly, this is two weeks out; any GFS run that far out should be taken with a grain of salt, if not a whole salt shaker's worth.  Thirdly, this storm would come from a disturbance that hasn't even formed yet. (It would have to form this weekend at the earliest before developing into  a tropical depression.)  So there's no reason to worry - yet.  But the possibility is still there, and so anyone in the Northeast who follows these weather projections for whatever reason there might be will likely have a lot of sleepless nights.  Everyone else will be losing sleep later on if this projection bears out.  

All I can say now is, stay tuned.  Remember, hurricane season doesn't end until November 30.

Delta Dawning

Hurricane Delta, the fourth tropical cyclone named for a Greek letter and the twenty-fifth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, has approached major-hurricane status and is lashing the Yucatan Peninsula before it's expected to close in on the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Delta is going to hit the delta.

The storm is likely going to do a number on New Orleans and affect a good deal of Mississippi before becoming a depression and moving northeast, its remnants possibly affecting New Jersey or Pennsylvania by Columbus Day.  Right now, as I type, there are no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin that could form a tropical system, so the mid-October hurricane that the almanacs predicted for the Northeast is not going to happen.  That doesn't mean that there won't be tropical activity later.

This all happens as Sir David Attenborough is promoting a new film saying how the earth is living on borrowed time due to climate change.  Maybe we should listen to him.

All Quiet For Now

You see this?

For the first time in over a month, the tropics are quiet.

This Atlantic hurricane season has been an active one, but with Sally, Teddy, Beta and finally Paulette gone for good, the Atlantic basin is clear of any organized storms.

So now we can rest easy, right?  Uh, no, we can't.  See, the hurricane season doesn't end for another two months, and we're still five storms short of the predicted 28 storms for the Atlantic basin this year . . . and next.  The last (and only previous) season that was active enough to produce storms that required Greek letters for names, the 2005 season, lasted into 2006.  And October s nown for producing some bad hurricanes and tropical storms.  Only in the coming month, they will be forming more in the Caribbean Sea than the Atlantic Ocean, and in fact Hurricane Sandy in 2012 originated off the coast of Nicaragua before making its way to the American Northeast .  And - remember! - at least one almanac has predicted a hurricane threat for some time around Columbus day.  At least one computer projection simulated a tropical storm for that approximate period hiting the Northeast, though another projection from the same source (the GFS, for the record) indicated a storm hitting the Gulf Coast at about that same time instead.  None of this is written in stone, of course.  As Long Island weatherman Joe Cioffi explains on his own Web site, troughs will be dropping into the Eastern half of the United States, which "makes for interesting scenarios under certain circumstances."

Like another Sandy?

Let's wait and see what happens.  Just remember, its not over yet.

Regarding Hurricanes: I Give Up!

Hurricane Teddy won't be hitting the American Northeast, though it could do some damage in the Canadian Maritimes, but I'm having trouble keeping up with all of these storms - especially the disturbances out at sea or off the African coast that are given almost zero chance of forming . . . and then form anyway!

The disturbance that wasn't supposed to be a tropical storm after it was supposed to become one became Tropical Storm Wilfred, and that storm has since dissipated.  Meanwhile, it looked like that a storm in the Gulf of Mexico that originally wasn't supposed to form would become Wilfred, then Alpha, going to Greek letters, but then a disturbance that had a low chance of being a problem became Subtropical - Subtropical? - Storm Alpha and made landfall on the Iberian Peninsula (affecting both Portugal and Spain) in southwestern Europe.  Now the Gulf disturbance is Tropical Storm Beta and is about to hit Texas.  But there's another disturbance near the Azores in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that's actually a remnant of Hurricane Paulette and has a medium chance of forming, and it may have become a tropical depression soon . . . 

Got all that?

And the hurricane season doesn't end until November 30 . . .

Ready Teddy? (And Where's Wilfred?)

The storm that became Hurricane Teddy, originally expected to take along arc along the East Coast, is likely to stay out to sea.  But there's another threat.

Never mind the active storms or the disturbance shown on this map from today in yellow, as they have no chance of becoming tropical depressions.  As for the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico shown in red, red meaning a high chance of forming there's no indication that this system will make landfall if it developed.  Pay attention instead to the other disturbance shown in red, the one off the coast of Africa.  It's a 70 percent chance for forming by this coming weekend.  And as it will form that far south and move west over warm waters, it has a good chance of being a storm like Teddy and will likely receive the name Wilfred.

According to the area shaded in red, it's likely to take a west-northwest turn west of the 40th meridian like Teddy, but that doesn't mean that this likely storm will follow the same trajectory as Teddy.  All tropical cyclones are different from each other, and there's no guarantee that that pattern that is keeping Teddy out to sea will keep what I call Future Wilfred as well.  (And, truth be told, there's no guarantee that Teddy will be far out to sea enough not to affect land either.)  Although it's not showing up as a tropical system in any long-range projections yet, this disturbance could very well the next storm of this busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season and a storm that needs to be watched - and the last storm to be given a Christian name this season.

Even if Future Wilfred doesn't get the East Coast, by the way, a storm named for Greek letter just might.  I know we're past peak season, but remember - Sandy hit the American Northeast two days before Halloween, and at least one of the almanacs had forecast a hurricane threat for the Northeast around Columbus Day. 

Sally? Gee!

Tropical Storm Sally has formed.  But not from the tropical wave you might be thinking of.

The new storm developed from a small disturbance just as of Miami that the National Hurricane Center gave little chance of forming into anything significant, and yet when it bisects the Gulf of Mexico on a northwesterly track, it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting the coast of Mississippi. 

As for the wave that came off the coast of Senegal, it has finally developed into a tropical depression and will likely become Tropical Storm Teddy late today (Sunday, September 13).  Then it should become a hurricane soon after. 

But get this.  Teddy will likely turn to the north sooner than originally anticipated, as the GFS computer projection now agrees with the Euro that will pose no threat to land. So those earlier projections of this storm affecting the whole damn U.S. East Coast appear to have fizzled.

I have to remain vigilant, though.  The hurricane season comes to end at the end of November, and the Northeast could still get that late -season storm the 2020 almanacs have been hinting at.

In the meantime, the 2021 almanacs should be out soon.  I can't wait to see what they say about next year!

Triple Climate Change Whammy?

My area is expected to get widespread thunderstorms today, and for once, they're not expected to be severe.  But I fear far worse down the road.

In light of the numerous wildfires in California (and the rest of the West Coast!) and a 60-degree (Fahrenheit) drop in temperatures that caused Denver to go from a heat wave to a snowstorm in less than a day, it's important to note that the Atlantic hurricane season peaks today.  But that doesn't mean that there's less of a chance of tropical cyclone hitting the East Coast after September 10.  In fact, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) weather projection, which goes out sixteen days, shows six disturbances in the Atlantic at once.  One of them is a tropical wave moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and possibly becoming a hurricane - maybe even a major hurricane - within two weeks, and some runs of the GFS have shown it getting dangerously close to the East Coast - maybe hitting Florida and running right up the shoreline to Long Island, or even hitting Newfoundland as a Category 4 storm!  Newfoundland! 

To be fair, runs showing a major storm have tended to be primarily 06z and 18z runs on the GFS, and they're somewhat less accurate than the the standard 00z and 12z runs.  In addition to being the only forecasting projection going out beyond ten days, the GFS is the only major weather projection with intermediate runs between 00z and 12z.  But the fact that such a storm is popping up on the GFS at all is rather frightening. And the main runs aren't necessarily that much better - recent 00z and 12z runs have shown this system beyond a ten-day period making landfall in Florida and possibly going up the shoreline from Georgia, albeit as a tropical storm. And the Euro and the Canadian projections have not been far off from the GFS in the earlier stages in regarding where this storm goes within a ten-day period. 

This storm will likely be the eighteenth named cyclone in this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and I'm already recalling that Sandy was the eighteenth named cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  The name this storm would thus get is Sally - eerily similar!  And I'm already having nightmarish visions of maps showing Charlie Brown's sister's head as the center of this storm bearing right down on my area.

Remember, the farm almanacs last year predicted a hurricane threat for the Northeast in September and October. And we're only in the beginning of that two-month period. :-(  

Weather Weary

We're nearing the  peak of hurricane season soon, and it's too soon to say whether Tropical Storms Fay and Isaias are the worst storms my area is getting for this season.  Last week, we had a triple threat of severe thunderstorms - Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday - and we got at least one severe storm that passed before it could do any damage. But there are no indications that we're going to get anything comparable to those storms in the next two weeks.

That's not to say we won't get any inclement weather in the next two weeks.  A cold front arriving on Labor Day is expected to being showers and thunderstorms all up and down the Northeast . . . and it's going to stay here for much of the week.  It's too soon, though, to say whether any of them will be severe.  But tropical cyclones, though they will still form, will mostly stay away from the East Coast.  As I type, one tropical depression that formed off the East Coast and has become a tropical storm, though its trajectory will take it out to sea.  Any storm that forms off the west coast of Africa is likely to also remain out at sea, what's called a "fish storm" because those are the only living creatures affected.   (As for frog storms, you can read about those in the Old Testament.)  There is one potential cyclone that could affect land - a storm heading west across the Caribbean toward Central America.

It should be noted that even though the East Coast will not be affected by a tropical cyclone during hurricane peak period - September 10 and a couple of days before and after - we in the Northeast could still be hit by a hurricane much later.  Repeat: Sandy hit us in late October.  But for now, at least, the weather is giving us a break.

Think Of Laura (and Marco)

Believe it or else, boys and girls, the continental United States is expected to get hit by not one, but two tropical cyclones this coming week!

Tropical Storm Laura (above) formed from a depression out in the Atlantic Ocean, followed by Marco, which formed from a depression in the Caribbean Sea. Laura could be Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola and, Marco is expected to come ashore on the Texas coast as a tropical storm.  They are forecast to make landfall within a day of each other.

Marco won't affect the Northeast, obviously, but no one knows how Laura will affect areas beyond the South Central states.  Some projections have Laura going across land to Virginia Beach or North Carolina before going out to sea, others have it crossing the Delmarva Peninsula before doing so, and some projections even have it going over - HORRORS! - New Jersey, maybe over Cape May or over Burlington County by way of Philadelphia before going over open water.  But the likeliest fate for Laura is that it will lose a lot of steam going over Alabama and Tennessee before passing over areas north of parallel line 36°30 as a storm remnant.  That said, no one really knows how Laura or Marco will play out once over land.

When you think of Laura (and Marco), cry, don't laugh, because worse may come for all of us a couple of weeks later, as hurricane season peaks on September 10.  And we may not be out of the woods after that.  Sandy, remember, hit New Jersey two days before Halloween.

I'm only sorry I got Christopher Cross' last hit single stuck in your head.  In the meantime, it will be interesting to see how Trump handles a double tropical-cyclone strike in Republican states as he prepares to accept the GOP's presidential nomination.  

Two For the Price of One

Two tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean at once?

This is a map from the National Hurricane Center, posted this past Friday evening, showing the positions of not one, but two tropical storms in the North Atlantic - Josephine and Kyle, the two earliest tenth and eleventh cyclones to form in any Atlantic hurricane season.  In fact, every tropical cyclone to form this season has formed earlier in this season than usual, and only one tropical depression - Number Ten - failed to become a storm.

Scared yet?

After Isaias, I'm still worried that the Northeast could get it again, maybe by a major hurricane, which hasn't happened since 1938. And what's really nerve-wracking is that no major hurricane has formed yet in 2020 - and as many as ten could be in store.  

Now for the good news: Josephine and Kyle have both since dissipated, never having posed any threat to land.  But the fact that two storms have been out there simultaneously should cause more concern.  And two other disturbances in the Atlantic could form into storms later this week.  I have a feeling that the pandemic won't be the only thing affecting this year's presidential election. :-O 

I Survived Isaias

But I'm not putting that on a T-shirt.

My household was one of the lucky ones.  We had three momentary outages during the height of the storm, during the 1:00 PM hour, and I swear that I thought any one of them would turn out to be a multi-day outage.  At about 3:35 PM, there was a brownout and the lights dimmed.  The sun came out later but the wind continued to howl.  By that evening it was over.  I was relieved, of course.  (For the record, we've now had 61 outages since November 2009, adding the three momentary outages from Tuesday's storm to the tally.)  

Then we suddenly had a cable outage while I was working on an article while wearing my other hat as a reporter.  My story was delayed because of it.  Fortunately, the cable service was restored by Wednesday morning.  I was convinced that Isaias wasn't as bad as Sandy had been.

Then I drove around town.

There were downed trees everywhere, and one tree in particular caused a lot of damage when it fell.  It not only took down power lines, it took down at least three utility poles, splitting one down the middle, and it laid waste to several transformers.  Another tree on the same street fell and brought down more wires.  After three days, power crews were still working on getting the wires back up and clearing the street.   Yes, people are saying that this storm was worse than Sandy in many ways.

We were lucky this time.  But I haven't forgotten that the Atlantic hurricane season has yet to peak, and that it hasn't produced a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) yet - and that six to ten such storms are predicted.  Not all of them will make landfall, and not all of them will make landfall on the East Coast.  But we only need one to make an already bad year exponentially worse.  And the Northeast - which, the almanacs say, is under a hurricane threat this fall - hasn't had a major hurricane pass through it since 1938.  We're overdue for one. :-(

Anyway, I continued my hiatus even after my cable service was restored, because I decided I needed a break. And now that I'm back, I'm not looking forward to commenting on the news of the day.

Pronounced "ees-uh-EE-us"

Well, well, it looks like another tropical system is coming my way!

Hurricane Isaias, the earliest I-named storm on record, formed last week and is now working its way up the Florida Atlantic coast, and it's eventually going too get to my neck of the woods.  I'm not as worried about this storm as I was only yesterday.  For one thing, it's expected to revert back to a tropical storm before it gets up to the Delmarva Peninsula.  Also, it will have 50-mile-per-hour winds, the same intensity as Tropical Storm Fay. So I'm not worrying about the wind so much.  But we might get more than a little rain - maybe four inches' worth!

I'm actually more worried about today's weather, as the local forecasters are not only calling for severe thunderstorms - again - but also suggesting, thanks to all of the tropical moisture, that there could even be a tornado!

I might already be experiencing a power or cable outage by the time you read this.

While Isaias might not be the big deal for New Jersey that it started out to be, it's important to remember that the Atlantic hurricane season has a long way to go before it's over, and a big one - Category 3 or higher - is always possible.  And so the Northeast could very well get the hurricane that the almanacs predicted for this fall.

I can't wait until 2020 is over, although I don't know why, because who's to say 2021 is going to be better? 

Hanna Storm

(Note to sports fans - see what I did there?)

After we got the earliest named storms for the first seven letters of the alphabet in this Atlantic hurricane season, Hanna became the earliest eighth named storm ever and the first hurricane of this season, slamming into the Texas Gulf Coast.

This comes amid persistent, interminable heat waves in the Northeast and an even stronger Pacific hurricane hitting Hawaii.  It's official - climate change is here and getting worse.  Those lockdowns at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic only slowed down carbon emissions in a minuscule, temporary way.  It seems like everything that could cause Armageddon is coming together in 2020.  As for the extreme weather, I suspect it may have been the cause for some recent Internet outages I've had this summer and I fear a far greater outage of services as the hurricane season progresses and peaks later.  Just because my area got a tropical storm a couple of weeks ago, doesn't mean a stronger storm can't affect my area later.       

I'll be glad to see 2020 go - unless Trump is re-elected, in which case I'll write off 2021 and beyond.  Because I know that, if that happens, nothing will be done about climate change and far worse will happen in the immediate future . . . things that have nothing to do with the weather.