More Hurricane Anxiety

I've been looking at the GFS weather projection over various runs, and until the 06z run today, I've been hopeful that a possible hurricane forming over the Western Caribbean and heading northeast would stay out at sea and giveNew Jersey only some heavy rain at best.  But the 06z run today gave me new fears for the final week of October.

This is the GFS's latest projection for 8. P.M. Eastern time, Monday, October 26  It shows the storm out at sea and only giving New Jersey some rain.  That's not what scares me.  Also, you'll notice a band of rain coming in from the west which may merge with the tropical system out at sea or over the Canadian Maritimes.  But even though the next several runs may bring the tropical storm closer to the U.S. East Coast, causing a Sandy-like superstorm. that's not what scares me - yet.

No, what scares me is what could happen after this storm pulls away!

This is the GFS's latest projection for 2 P.M. Eastern time the next day, Tuesday, October 27, showing a storm forming in the Carolinas coming right after the hurricane and dumping more rain on New Jersey, and even snow in the interior Northeast - with some snow in northwestern New Jersey by the time it pulls out!

This is the first time the GFS has shown such a scenario. If these two separate systems were to merge sooner and farther to the south, we could have something that could dwarf Sandy!

The 06z run of the GFS isn't the most reliable one, though, and a friend of mine on social media has reminded me that these projections are just for guidance  . . . and the nature of this beast  will depend steering currents and ocean temperatures.  Not just in the Caribbean, but in the northwestern Atlantic as well, where the water is cooler.

Hang on.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

The dueling presidential campaign town halls? Relax, I'll get to that . . ..