Thursday, September 10, 2020

Triple Climate Change Whammy?

My area is expected to get widespread thunderstorms today, and for once, they're not expected to be severe.  But I fear far worse down the road.
In light of the numerous wildfires in California (and the rest of the West Coast!) and a 60-degree (Fahrenheit) drop in temperatures that caused Denver to go from a heat wave to a snowstorm in less than a day, it's important to note that the Atlantic hurricane season peaks today.  But that doesn't mean that there's less of a chance of tropical cyclone hitting the East Coast after September 10.  In fact, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) weather projection, which goes out sixteen days, shows six disturbances in the Atlantic at once.  One of them is a tropical wave moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and possibly becoming a hurricane - maybe even a major hurricane - within two weeks, and some runs of the GFS have shown it getting dangerously close to the East Coast - maybe hitting Florida and running right up the shoreline to Long Island, or even hitting Newfoundland as a Category 4 storm!  Newfoundland! 
To be fair, runs showing a major storm have tended to be primarily 06z and 18z runs on the GFS, and they're somewhat less accurate than the the standard 00z and 12z runs.  In addition to being the only forecasting projection going out beyond ten days, the GFS is the only major weather projection with intermediate runs between 00z and 12z.  But the fact that such a storm is popping up on the GFS at all is rather frightening. And the main runs aren't necessarily that much better - recent 00z and 12z runs have shown this system beyond a ten-day period making landfall in Florida and possibly going up the shoreline from Georgia, albeit as a tropical storm. And the Euro and the Canadian projections have not been far off from the GFS in the earlier stages in regarding where this storm goes within a ten-day period. 
This storm will likely be the eighteenth named cyclone in this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and I'm already recalling that Sandy was the eighteenth named cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  The name this storm would thus get is Sally - eerily similar!  And I'm already having nightmarish visions of maps showing Charlie Brown's sister's head as the center of this storm bearing right down on my area.
Remember, the farm almanacs last year predicted a hurricane threat for the Northeast in September and October. And we're only in the beginning of that two-month period. :-(  

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