Not Out Like a Lamb

March isn't going quietly this year.  We have yet another rainstorm in the Northeast that could give us a real soaking today. 

And come Thursday morning - April 1, though it's not an April Fool joke - we could get a bit of snow.  Not much, but just enough to make us groan.

But that's nothing in light of the fact that my area could get yet another wind advisory - the fourth or fifth one since the start of March.  And Friday - Good Friday - could feel like just that - the start of March, with a nasty chill in the air.

I'm getting sick of all of this.

There is a bright side - literally.  It gets warmer and sunnier on Holy Saturday, with even nicer weather for Easter Sunday and immediately after.   No more wintry weather any time soon after that.  I can't wait.

Another Storm . . .

Well, I got through yesterday morning's storm, but the show's not over yet for this week, this one's a . . . well, you know the rest. 

As the map above from The Weather Channel shows, the Northeast will get some plowable snow tomorrow, and there could also be some ice mixed in - sleet, not freezing rain, so it seems.  I don't have to worry about icing this time.  (But folks in Virginia and points southwest will have to deal with icing again.)

This has been a very stormy pattern affecting much of the entire country,  Earlier this week, you could have driven (assuming it was safe) from Brownsville, Texas to Fort Kent, Maine by way of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys without going through a county not under a winter storm wanting.  Texas itself has gotten the sort of snow and subzero wind chills normally associate with Siberia, leading to electrical outages and delays of administering of COVID vaccines.

There's one more storm after this coming next Monday, but a less stormy pattern should settle in after that.

Triple Climate Change Whammy?

My area is expected to get widespread thunderstorms today, and for once, they're not expected to be severe.  But I fear far worse down the road.

In light of the numerous wildfires in California (and the rest of the West Coast!) and a 60-degree (Fahrenheit) drop in temperatures that caused Denver to go from a heat wave to a snowstorm in less than a day, it's important to note that the Atlantic hurricane season peaks today.  But that doesn't mean that there's less of a chance of tropical cyclone hitting the East Coast after September 10.  In fact, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) weather projection, which goes out sixteen days, shows six disturbances in the Atlantic at once.  One of them is a tropical wave moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and possibly becoming a hurricane - maybe even a major hurricane - within two weeks, and some runs of the GFS have shown it getting dangerously close to the East Coast - maybe hitting Florida and running right up the shoreline to Long Island, or even hitting Newfoundland as a Category 4 storm!  Newfoundland! 

To be fair, runs showing a major storm have tended to be primarily 06z and 18z runs on the GFS, and they're somewhat less accurate than the the standard 00z and 12z runs.  In addition to being the only forecasting projection going out beyond ten days, the GFS is the only major weather projection with intermediate runs between 00z and 12z.  But the fact that such a storm is popping up on the GFS at all is rather frightening. And the main runs aren't necessarily that much better - recent 00z and 12z runs have shown this system beyond a ten-day period making landfall in Florida and possibly going up the shoreline from Georgia, albeit as a tropical storm. And the Euro and the Canadian projections have not been far off from the GFS in the earlier stages in regarding where this storm goes within a ten-day period. 

This storm will likely be the eighteenth named cyclone in this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and I'm already recalling that Sandy was the eighteenth named cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  The name this storm would thus get is Sally - eerily similar!  And I'm already having nightmarish visions of maps showing Charlie Brown's sister's head as the center of this storm bearing right down on my area.

Remember, the farm almanacs last year predicted a hurricane threat for the Northeast in September and October. And we're only in the beginning of that two-month period. :-(  

Snow and Ice and Rain . . .

The Northeast is about to get its first big snowfall of the meteorological winter of 2019-20. . . on the first day, tomorrow (December 1).  And if that weren't bad enough, sleet and freezing rain are in the mix.  

Right now, my area may not get the worst of the snow, but ice accretion is still a concern.  As I type this, there's a worst-case scenario for my area with regard to ice, but hopefully it will be more sleet (frozen ice pellets, less treacherous) than freezing rain (rain freezes on contact, ice weighs down branches and power lines, no one wants that to happen!).  Not all of the rain we get will freeze, though.  However, I feel frustrated, because I haven't finished raking the autumn leaves, and now I have to worry about a winter storm.

I'd move to southern California, but I'd rather deal with a thousand snowstorms (but no ice storms) than a single firestorm.

Not feeling very inspired right now. Sorry . . .   

Beware of Maya

The winter storm The Weather Channel has named for the Hindi word for "illusion" is no illusion, it's the real thing.  It's bringing snow, ice and rain to my area tomorrow after having wreaked havoc elsewhere, and even though the ice my area is expected to get is more likely to be sleet - rain that freezes in midair - than rain that freezes the moment it comes into contact with whatever it touches, like tree limbs and power lines, it's still going to be a nasty storm for us.  So, even though it won't be a bona fide ice storm, a 49th power outage for my block, counting from November 2009, can't be ruled out entirely.

I've had an easy winter, and the idea that would remain easy was just an illusion; this is Mother Nature's way of having everything turn out even, especially after it was over sixty degrees Fahrenheit  early last week.

Stick around. I may be back soon.

Snow and Ice and Rain, Oh My!

As you've probably been hearing all week, a dangerous winter storm bringing every form of precipitation known to humankind has been marching across the 48 contiguous United States.  The storm, which The Weather Channel inexplicably decided to name after Paul Simon's eldest son (weather forecasters who don't work for The Weather Channel don't name winter storms, and they go  to great lengths not to use the names The Weather Channel assigns to them), is bringing snow, rain,. sleet, and freezing rain to just about anywhere. California got hit with rain and snow already.  The Great Plains have been walloped with snow and the Midwest has gotten snow and ice as well.  In the Northeast, we've been awaiting our turn, which is coming some time after I publish this. 

Ice has been the main concern for my immediate area, with threats of significant icing in parts of New Jersey north and west of New York City.  Icing occurs when warm air aloft causes snow to melt into raindrops over frozen ground and then refreeze on contact - freezing rain.  That's different from sleet, where melted snow refreezes into pellets before it hits the ground.  Earlier forecasts for my area called for snow to change to rain and for ground-level temperatures to be cold enough to allow rain to freeze on the ground and create ice heavy enough to bring down trees . . . and power lines.  This in an area where I have had to endure no fewer than 48 outages in the past decade.  At this writing, however, more recent forecasts call for snow to change to rain where I live and not freeze on the ground, as temperatures will be rising through the night and in the overnight hours.  So I think my neighborhood will be spared icing.    

I think we will be spared icing because after the precipitation ends by midday tomorrow, the temperature will start to fall, falling to 32 degrees Fahrenheit around 3 P.M., falling to about 24 after sunset, falling to 13 by midnight and finally bottoming out at 6 at 9 A.M. Monday.  And another forecast says that freezing rain in my area is still a possibility for tonight.  But the falling temperatures throughout Sunday afternoon and evening are the primary concerns here, because they will cause a flash freezing of any collected water that hasn't evaporated from the winds, which will also be picking up.  High wind speed plus freezing water on power lines and trees equal disaster.  

While I'm a little more confident than I was yesterday that my block will be speared a power outage, I'm not taking any chances as far as my blogs are concerned.  I have written a blog entry and scheduled it to be published on Tuesday, January 22, but I don't expect to write anything else here if a blackout occurs.  Maybe not even if a blackout doesn't occur; I have other and more important things to do online this coming week.  Also, I have rescheduled posts on my beautiful-women picture blog so that, after a post today,  there will not be a new post there until Friday.

As for my non-online life, I have plans to encase food in Styrofoam boxes and store them in a cold place if my power does go out, and I may have to leave the water running to prevent freezing pipes.  But whatever happens, it's actually supposed to get up to the mid-forties by Wednesday.

I hope to be back in a timely matter.  Stay tuned.     

Hard To Believe

Some things are hard to believe, aren't they?

Hard to believe that Trump would arrive at the celebration of the one hundredth anniversary of the end of World War I separately and also deliberately apart from virtually every other world leader, right?  No, the thing that's hard to believe is that he made it at all.  He wouldn't honor American war dead at a cemetery outside Paris because it was raining and he didn't want to muss up his hair.  He skipped a wreath-laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery back home for the same reason.  What you expect from someone whose biggest obsession is himself?

Hard to believe that Trump razzed French president Emmanuel Macron for suggesting a pan-European defense force and proclaimed that American military superiority saved the French in both world wars? No, I believe it, because Republicans like Trump are renowned for always taking the opportunity to dismiss the French, especially for their bad luck in military engagements.  But then Republicans never appreciated that the French are better at making love than making war.

Hard to believe that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema edged out Republican Martha McSally in the U.S. Senate election in Arizona, to become Arizona's first female senator and become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the Grand Canyon State in three decades?  No, because McSally tried to make immigration an issue in a state with a growing Hispanic population and left a bitter taste in people's mouths.  However, award McSally points for her gracious concession video, which also included her dog. 

Hard to believe that they're still counting votes in the gubernatorial and senatorial elections in Florida?  Really?  Are you kidding?

Hard to believe that a Mississippi Republican senator said something racist referring to lynching in this day and age?  See above. 

Hard to believe that Trump would get rid of Kirstjen Nielsen at the Department of Homeland Security at a time when he has 15,000 soldiers at the border defending America from . . . what?  A thousand women and children?  No, not really, because Trump doesn't think through things when he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Hard to believe that Trump would blame California for its forest fires because of bad forest management even though the latest fires are brush fires and federal forest management is a federal responsibility?  No, because Trump hates Californians for not voting for him in 2016.   Hey, he's petty. 

Hard to believe it's going to snow in the Northeast tomorrow when it's only November?  No, because that's the result of what's fueling the California wildfires - climate change. 

Easter Monday Snow

We thought we'd been spared.  After a bitter, stormy and snowy March that left many people at the end of their tethers - that would include me - we thought April showers would come our way, but instead we got April snow for today, Easter Monday.  And a couple of amateur forecasters on social media - not all of whom are sloppy novices - keep warning us about a major snowstorm of emergency proportions approaching for this coming weekend.  That is less likely to happen at this point - computer projections have been retreating from that prediction somewhat - but the prospect of any April snow shouldn't be taken lightly.  April snow usually melts quickly, but it can stick around long enough if it comes down hard and fast enough . . . and stay cold long enough thereafter.  If that sounds ludicrous, check the weather records for the American Northeast for April 1982 and see how much snow fell on April 6 . . . and how long it stayed cold thereafter.

But then who needs a big snowstorm this coming weekend when today's snow turned out to be worse than expected?  Originally forecast tow be two or three inches, it's almost six inches deep.  The good news is it will be gone in couple of days.  The bad news is that we're going to get a heavy rain, which means a lot of flooding due to rainfall on top of the melting snow.  Meanwhile, I can also assume that the scheduled pickup of yard debris from the March 7 storm in my town has been canceled.  Until further notice.

We're being told five or six days out from the next system not to worry about a repeat of 1982, except for this one guy who gives weather forecasts for my area on social media.  Of course, we were also told not to worry about Hurricane Sandy five or six days out.  As for this weekend's snow maker, well, I'm crossing my fingers.

What Could Be Worse Than Three March Nor'easters?

How about four March nor'easters?

Yes, another coastal system his headed up the American East Coast, and yes, it will be a nor'easter (forecasters are calling this fourth nor'easter a "foureaster"), with winds gusting at speeds just above tropical storm force - inland as well as along the shore.

This storm was expected to pass south of the New York City area, and part of will do so tomorrow, but a second part is expected to come up the coast on Wednesday - the first full day of spring - and Wednesday just happens to be the only day this week where temperatures won't make it comfortably above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning more snow than rain.

If there's any good news here, it's that accumulations in northern New Jersey, as these maps from the National Weather Service indicate, should be modest - two or three inches, which is the equivalent of a quarter of an inch of rain - and that the sun angle resulting from the vernal equinox should prevent much of it from sticking.  But I'm concerned about the winds.  The ground is so moist and the wind gusts are expected to be strong, and my neighborhood has been subjected to mass deforestation as a result of the previous storms.  At this point, I'm tired of all this and I am patiently waiting for spring weather.  I feel like I'm waiting for a moment that just won't come.

I hope March goes out as quietly as it came in ferociously, but we shouldn't be too sure of that. :-(  I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  This month wasn't named after the Roman war god for nothing.       

In Like a Lion . . . Again

The weather will be rocking and rolling in my neck of the woods to start off March.  The American Northeast is about to be subject to a nor'easter, and not only has confidence been growing in the forecasts for a big storm, predictions for how bad it will be have progressively worsened.  After a hopeful sign that the storm, expected to begin tomorrow night and produce two inches of rain, could be gone by late Friday, it is now expected to linger into Saturday morning.  And after early signs that the winds would be at a manageable 20 to 25 miles an hour, they could now be as high as 35 mph, and that's just inland - not at the coast, where winds could be higher still and cause flooding at high tide under a full moon.  And oh yes, the heavy rain could turn to snow just before it tapers off.

We're going to get everything.

And how will this affect my electricity, which has gone out over forty times in the past ten years?  I don't know yet, but right now I'm cautiously optimistic, because it could be worse.  Tempering that hope, of course, is the fact that the forecast has been getting worse.  As always, stay tuned - I may be back.  

First Snow Of the Year

And it might be worse than it currently appears. 

This is the amount of snow forecast for New Jersey on Thursday, courtesy of News 12 New Jersey.  This snow is due to a big, powerful, significant, massive storm - described with all of the adjectives you never want to hear in any weather forecast - and even though my area is in the two- to four-inch range (in fact, I'm in the edge between a coating to two inches and two to four inches) and there's no winter storm watch for my county as of yet, those numbers could increase and there could be a storm alert for my county if the storm continues to turned west as it has been doing.  (As anyone who's ever seen Kanye pop up on hot topics online can attest, "trending" and "west" are two words you never want to hear together.)   This storm will include high winds, the most severe of which will be at the shoreline.

Then, after the storm, comes the worst cold of this winter so far - single-digit highs and sub-zero lows!  The good news?   It'll warm up into the forties by next Monday.  (Remember, all temperatures are Fahrenheit.)  Since I likely won't get the worst winds or the worst snow, I think my electricity should be alright.  

My pipes, on the other hand . . .

Ima let you thaw, but . . .   

Winter: So Far, So Good

It was fairly warm in the American Northeast today, and it's been mild overall this January. Don't tell me there's no climate change! Seattle had a devastating snowstorm earlier this month, the very kind of storm New York is used to seeing in the winter. We in the Greater New York area have been getting mostly rain, the same kind of winter weather you normally see in . . . Seattle. (Alas, New York hasn't adopted Seattle's grunge rock culture, but that's another post.)

The only snow we Tristaters have gotten this winter so far is the snowfall of last Saturday (January 21), which barely amounted to three inches and melted within almost as many days. So far we've had a manageable winter in the Greater New York area, and while I hope it continues to work out that way, I know the weather could turn nasty and cold any time now.

Meanwhile, the forecast around her calls for temperatures in the mid-forties for the coming week. I'll take it.

False Weather Alarm

So it didn't snow yesterday where I live after all. No, I'll qualify that. It did snow a bit around eleven o'clock in the morning or so, but nothing stuck. It was mostly a cold rain.

So what happened? Well, the forecast was no April Fool's joke. As the nor'easter got closer it looked like it would dump snow in northern New Jersey, but as the track of the storm became clearer and as the forecasts were revised, it became obvious that it wouldn't amount to much if anything for most of us. The winter storm warning for Morris County was downgraded to a winter weather advisory, and the winter weather advisory for Essex County was canceled Thursday night.

So much of New Jersey dodged a bullet. The heaviest snow from this April storm fell in Massachusetts and Maine. The center of Massachusetts was hit fairly hard. But here the storm wimped out. Today has been very pleasant.

New Jersey isn't out of the woods yet. Some thundershowers and wind storms are moving across the country and are expected to hit New Jersey Tuesday morning. Welcome to April, the cruelest month.

Winter Break

It's been rather mild these past few days in the American Northeast, and snow that's been on the ground since the turn of the year has finally melted. Trouble is, it's supposed to get down to the low thirties (Fahrenheit) in my neck of the woods, with a couple of inches of new snow in the forecast. But I think there may be light at the end of the wintry tunnel, as temperatures are expected to recover later on.

Punxsutawney Phil, the esteemed Pennsylvania groundhog, didn't see his shadow this past February 2, indicating an early spring. That little rodent might just be right. :-)

But if we are getting an early spring, the past couple of days have only been a sneak preview. For now, the break from winter is over.

Back with more miscellaneous musings later.

Cabin Fever

Okay, it's official: I can't take winter anymore. Remember, I live in the Northeast, which gets snowstorms from the Rockies, Gulf storms from the South, blizzards from the Midwest, Alberta clippers from Canada . . .. Aughh! We're on the receiving end of storms from everywhere!

I keep having to cancel plans because of the constant snowfalls, and the only bright side to that is that I haven't made that many plans these days anyway. My writers' group keeps having to reschedule events not because of the snow but because of changes of hours of operation at the library where we meet . . . but we could get around those changes more easily if it weren't snowing every three days. (At least four days have some kind of winter precipitation in the week ahead, with another big storm expected on Thursday.)

Even worse, I have to get by on winter gear that's wearing and tearing by the day. It wasn't supposed to be like that. My mother bought a pair of Thinsulate gloves for me for Christmas, and she was going to buy new boots online for me as well. But the boots she wanted to get me wouldn't be available until April, and I lost my Thinsulate gloves. Because the geniuses who run retail chains decided that no one buys winter clothing in February because they already have what they need - it never occurs to them that people lose gloves and need to replace them - and because they're too busy putting out Easter candy (Easter falls on April 24!), I can't buy a new pair. So, in addition to relying on wearing boots that I've had since the older George Bush was President, I have to rely on a pair of cheap store-brand gloves that started to wear out the same day bought them.

I bought them last year.

A friend of mine told me she saw an ABC news report saying that the worst of this winter would be over by the middle of February, and that the rest of it would have better weather. I don't think so. And I don;t think we'll have an early spring just because Punxsutawney Phil said so on Groundhog Day. A more benign winter? This winter ain't gonna lighten up; it's gonna tighten up!

And I'll still have those same worn gloves.

Ugh . . . I have to finish clearing the snow off our flat garage roof before the next nor'easter.

Holiday Rut

Well, I had an interesting weekend.

It snowed in northern New Jersey over the weekend, and even though it was supposed to be a coating and melt quickly, it snowed enough that I had to shovel late on Saturday night.

Last night - or rather, this morning - I went to bed at 1:30 in the morning and didn't get much sleep after having looked in vain for my keys. I thought they were gone for good, and I tossed and turned at the idea of spending two hundred dollars to replace my computerized car key fob. I left a note to my mother asking her to leave her house keys behind so I could make copies of the them. I turned out that I hadn't lost my keys - my mother took them thinking they were hers.

But at least we got out lights on our Christmas tree.

I'm pretty tired right now.

Not very inspired this morning. Sorry.

I think today I'll read that James Monroe biography that I checked out of the library. Maybe that'll make me feel good.

(You have to know your American history to get that joke.)