Henri. Merde.

When it turned out that the first week of August passed by without a hurricane in my area, I felt some considerable relief, as it meant that the Old Farmer's Almanac was wrong when it predicted a hurricane threat for the American Northeast for that time.  I laughed at the almanac, in fact, as it had gotten earlier forecasts for 2021 wrong.  It looks like the editors of that venerable publication will have the last laugh.  Because Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Henri could indeed hit the Northeast - maybe even the part where I live. 

This advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 PM yesterday left my blood run cold.

The projected track, once thought to remain out at sea, has moved farther to the west and is aimed at Boston.  The cone of uncertainty, you'll notice, also includes New York City and northeastern New Jersey.  That's likely because of this 12z GFS run from yesterday showing the storm on a northeasterly course and then actually drift over to Long Island before backing up and continuing on to Massachusetts as of 8:00 A.M., Monday, August 23.

The 18z run from yesterday shows a better outcome for the New York City area for that same day and time, though Cape Cod residents would get their hair mussed up somewhat.

Regardless, I didn't want to look at GFS computer projections after that.  NHC maps are scary enough, thank you.

Except for this one, issues at 11:00 P.M. last night, showing a turn back to the east.  But it may not be the way it ultimately goes.  And even if this map bears out, someone could still get hit.

I am possibly now, with the realization that Henri is going to hit someone, caught in the ethically dubious situation of hoping it misses the greater New York area, which is the same as hoping that it hits New England.  Because a "fish storm" scenario, where it says out to sea, is unlikely.

Pronounced "ees-uh-EE-us"

Well, well, it looks like another tropical system is coming my way!

Hurricane Isaias, the earliest I-named storm on record, formed last week and is now working its way up the Florida Atlantic coast, and it's eventually going too get to my neck of the woods.  I'm not as worried about this storm as I was only yesterday.  For one thing, it's expected to revert back to a tropical storm before it gets up to the Delmarva Peninsula.  Also, it will have 50-mile-per-hour winds, the same intensity as Tropical Storm Fay. So I'm not worrying about the wind so much.  But we might get more than a little rain - maybe four inches' worth!

I'm actually more worried about today's weather, as the local forecasters are not only calling for severe thunderstorms - again - but also suggesting, thanks to all of the tropical moisture, that there could even be a tornado!

I might already be experiencing a power or cable outage by the time you read this.

While Isaias might not be the big deal for New Jersey that it started out to be, it's important to remember that the Atlantic hurricane season has a long way to go before it's over, and a big one - Category 3 or higher - is always possible.  And so the Northeast could very well get the hurricane that the almanacs predicted for this fall.

I can't wait until 2020 is over, although I don't know why, because who's to say 2021 is going to be better? 

April Showers Bring May Rain

I waited through a dismal April to enjoy a nice warm May, but it's been cold and rainy these past couple of days, and more rain is to follow this week.  And tomorrow will feel so summery that we could get the sort of severe thunderstorms that normally come in July and August.   

As if that weren't bad enough, some computer projections are looking at a serious tropical storm affecting the American East Coast by the end of this month, before the hurricane season even starts.  

According to the projection, which I won't show here because it's too early to take it seriously and it's also too scary to look at, it could hit the Northeast almost a year to the day after Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement.

This year has been a disappointment for me and a whole lot of other people . . ..  I'm hoping the weather doesn't turn it into a disaster. :-O :-( 

No Way - Jose?

Hurricane Jose, after spinning aimlessly in the North Atlantic for a week, is moving again, and it's heading toward the American Northeast.

Jose was expected to move north and then head out to sea, but the chances of it being just a fish storm are now small and diminishing with each passing advisory from the National Hurricane Center.  Computer projections have pushed the storm closer to the coast by September 19 or 20, and while there's no evidence that it will make landfall in the New York City Tri-State area, it will comethisclose to it, pushing waves against the shore even with the center a couple hundred miles away.

We in the Greater New York area can't even look at the bright side of Jose weakening and likely falling apart from being over cooler waters at or around forty degrees latitude north.  That, according to The Weather Channel, is only going to expand the wind field and possibly bring tropical-storm-force winds well inland, even where I live.

There are no watches or warnings yet, and the forecast, as I type this, calls for showers and inconsequential winds where I live.  But all it takes is for the track of the storm to nudge just a little to the west for Greater New York to get Sandy Mark Two.  

I'm not going to rest easy in the meantime.  It's been like this all week.  Just when I think I can rest easy, another computer projection shows the storm  as a greater threat to not just the Greater New York area but also to coastal New England.   And to add insult to injury, Jose isn't going to head out to sea and dissipate after it passes through the waters off the American Northeast.  First the Euro, now the GFS, both have it looping around in a big circle - like a car on the Capital Belaway around Washington - and possibly heading back toward the North American mainland.  The Euro even has it merging with . . . another tropical storm!  Jose is the storm that won't go away.

Needless to say, I might have to deal with Power Outage #42 in a few days, and I may have to shut down my blog - maybe even take down my current Music Video Of the Week early, since any outage  I get might last beyond this coming Friday (September 22) - and computer projections show another storm, a storm that hasn't even formed yet, after that.

Stay tuned.  I may be around.      

Its Name Is Earl

The National Weather Service reported earlier today that Hurricane Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane and some news stories on the storm - which is on an indeterminate track toward the American East Coast - could hit anywhere between North Carolina and Maine and possibly give the New York City area a lashing reminiscent of the 1938 hurricane that famously destroyed Providence, Rhode Island. It's been that long since the Northeast has had to deal with a tropical storm of Katrina-size proportions.

This is bad enough news for those of us with the lingering bad memories of the February blizzards earlier this year, not to mention the March nor'easter that turned much of New Jersey into an inland sea. The laws of averages suggest that the greater New York area can't possibly go through the same kind of adverse weather twice in one year, but of course nor'easters and hurricanes are in fact two different kinds of storms . . . only with the same nasty effects.

Hurricane Earl is expected to be within range of the Northeast by Thursday night of Friday. A likely scenario has Earl staying out at sea and not affecting land terribly, but a hit - direct or indirect - is not out of the question just yet. Friday's forecast for the New York area, as of this writing, calls for a 40 percent chance of showers.

We're going to get hit, I know it.

The blizzards we got this past winter were originally forecast to be snow showers.