Here We Go Again

I could be talking here about the pandemic, the new voting-restriction law in Georgia, or President Biden's infrastructure initiative, but no, here I am talking about the weather again.

As you all, know the American Southeast has been hit by numerous tornadoes, and while tornadoes in that part of the country are not uncommon at this time of year, the intensity of the storms is.  There have been so many serious storms there of late that they're making national news and turning network news anchors into on-camera meteorologists.

And then there's my neck of the woods.

Severe thunderstorms aren't supposed to materialize in the American Northeast this early in the year, but now there's a marginal chance of severe weather in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut today, with greater chances in Delaware and Maryland.  And there's a particular line of storms that, according to one computer projection, could deliver severe weather right over northern New Jersey - literally hitting my where I live!

It's too soon.  But thanks to climate change, late-March thunderstorms will be a thing.

Oh yeah, there could be a tornado or two in southern New Jersey.

And remember, my area could get a hurricane in August.

I'm not looing forward to the rest of the year, and not just because of the pandemic.    

Less Hurricane Anxiety

It's amazing how these weather computer projections can change.  Before the weekend started, I was scared to death of a major hurricane coming up the East Coast and literally hitting me where I live. Now look at this map from the Global Forecast System (GFS), showing 1:00 P.M. Eastern time on Monday, October 26, from today's 06z run!

While it shows a large swath of rain of snow coming in across the continent (which would affect my area by Wednesday, October 28), it does not show that hypothetical Western Caribbean storm affecting the Eastern seaboard.  In fact, it doesn't show any such storm; while a hurricane is expected to form out in the Atlantic near Bermuda but likely not to affect land, the hurricane that forecasters thought would develop from the area of the Caribbean Sea of the coast of Nicaragua is completely non-existent.  Although something could still form near Central America, the shift in the jet stream dip from east to west would likely preclude any such storm reaching the Northeast as Sandy did eight years ago.  The current trends on the GFS have been consistent for several runs.  And the National Hurricane Center has lessened the chance of anything forming in that part of the Atlantic basin to near nil.

Although Mike Seidel on The Weather Channel insists the chance will still go up.

On the other hand, here's what new York meteorologist Joe Cioffi had to say about all of this: "Another tropical storm could develop in the Northwest Caribbean and it has been one that weather models have been showing for the last 10 days and weather chatterers on social media have played up for all sorts of apocalyptic outcomes. Yes, it is 2020, but overnight we see that models have lost the idea of a hurricane moving up the coast and show that anything that forms in the Northwest Caribbean could get trapped there. We suggest that until there is something that develops, we will focus attention on what is actually there and not what could be."

Although Mike Seidel on The Weather Channel will continue focusing on what could be.

Vivian Brown's departure from The Weather Chanel wasn't the only reason I stopped watching that channel so much. 😛 

Into the Summer

After some dicey weather this past month (some rain, some severe weather threats), we're settling into a  nice Memorial Day weekend, although it'll be a little hot tomorrow.  I've been riding my bicycle,  going for walks, and all that bit.  I'm hoping to go to my local Memorial Day parade this year; I missed the one last year.  And now that I have some time to enjoy the decent weather we have in New Jersey right now, I won't be blogging as much for awhile.  Stay tuned, though; I'll still be around, even as summer begins to get into gear.  

April Showers Bring May Rain

I waited through a dismal April to enjoy a nice warm May, but it's been cold and rainy these past couple of days, and more rain is to follow this week.  And tomorrow will feel so summery that we could get the sort of severe thunderstorms that normally come in July and August.   

As if that weren't bad enough, some computer projections are looking at a serious tropical storm affecting the American East Coast by the end of this month, before the hurricane season even starts.  

According to the projection, which I won't show here because it's too early to take it seriously and it's also too scary to look at, it could hit the Northeast almost a year to the day after Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement.

This year has been a disappointment for me and a whole lot of other people . . ..  I'm hoping the weather doesn't turn it into a disaster. :-O :-( 

In With a Leonine Storm

I thought we'd been spared. Although a line of severe thunderstorms came through my area this past Saturday - the result of abnormally warm weather meeting seasonably cold air coming in from the west (producing summerlike storms in February for the second year in a row!), my immediate area didn't get the worst of it, and I thought that would be it for awhile.  But no, we've gotten more warm air pumped into our area, and another cold front is bearing down on us for today, the first day of March . . . and the threat for my immediate vicinity may be even greater this time. :-O

This is the map issued late yesterday showing the risk areas for severe thunderstorms in the lower forty-eight.  As you can see, New Jersey is in the "slight risk" zone, which means there's far more than a slight chance that we're going to get pummeled - especially when the forecast squall line is expected to push southeast rather than northeast like the one from Saturday.  The map issued the day before showed northern New Jersey in the "marginal" risk zone; the entire state, for all I know, could be in an "enhanced risk" zone by the time you read this.     

I have a feeling we're going to get an electrical blackout for an undetermined duration, or at least a cable blackout, so I may be out of commission for awhile.  Utility companies have bragged in recent years about how their infrastructural systems has been hardened to the point where they can withstand the sort of damaging winds and torrential downpours that this sort of severe weather can bring.  But trees are no stronger than they've always been, of course, and no electrical or cable wire strung from one pressure-treated utility pole to the other can withstand a tree brought down by a wind gust.

Neither can a living room window.

And if there is cloud-to-ground lightning, all bets are off.

I may be back later.  Suffice to say, we shouldn't be getting July-like storms in March.  We shouldn't even be getting the sort of storms we got last July; climate change has only made them more fierce.