Henri. Merde.

When it turned out that the first week of August passed by without a hurricane in my area, I felt some considerable relief, as it meant that the Old Farmer's Almanac was wrong when it predicted a hurricane threat for the American Northeast for that time.  I laughed at the almanac, in fact, as it had gotten earlier forecasts for 2021 wrong.  It looks like the editors of that venerable publication will have the last laugh.  Because Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Henri could indeed hit the Northeast - maybe even the part where I live. 

This advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 PM yesterday left my blood run cold.

The projected track, once thought to remain out at sea, has moved farther to the west and is aimed at Boston.  The cone of uncertainty, you'll notice, also includes New York City and northeastern New Jersey.  That's likely because of this 12z GFS run from yesterday showing the storm on a northeasterly course and then actually drift over to Long Island before backing up and continuing on to Massachusetts as of 8:00 A.M., Monday, August 23.

The 18z run from yesterday shows a better outcome for the New York City area for that same day and time, though Cape Cod residents would get their hair mussed up somewhat.

Regardless, I didn't want to look at GFS computer projections after that.  NHC maps are scary enough, thank you.

Except for this one, issues at 11:00 P.M. last night, showing a turn back to the east.  But it may not be the way it ultimately goes.  And even if this map bears out, someone could still get hit.

I am possibly now, with the realization that Henri is going to hit someone, caught in the ethically dubious situation of hoping it misses the greater New York area, which is the same as hoping that it hits New England.  Because a "fish storm" scenario, where it says out to sea, is unlikely.