Regarding Hurricanes: I Give Up!

Hurricane Teddy won't be hitting the American Northeast, though it could do some damage in the Canadian Maritimes, but I'm having trouble keeping up with all of these storms - especially the disturbances out at sea or off the African coast that are given almost zero chance of forming . . . and then form anyway!

The disturbance that wasn't supposed to be a tropical storm after it was supposed to become one became Tropical Storm Wilfred, and that storm has since dissipated.  Meanwhile, it looked like that a storm in the Gulf of Mexico that originally wasn't supposed to form would become Wilfred, then Alpha, going to Greek letters, but then a disturbance that had a low chance of being a problem became Subtropical - Subtropical? - Storm Alpha and made landfall on the Iberian Peninsula (affecting both Portugal and Spain) in southwestern Europe.  Now the Gulf disturbance is Tropical Storm Beta and is about to hit Texas.  But there's another disturbance near the Azores in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that's actually a remnant of Hurricane Paulette and has a medium chance of forming, and it may have become a tropical depression soon . . . 

Got all that?

And the hurricane season doesn't end until November 30 . . .

Ready Teddy? (And Where's Wilfred?)

The storm that became Hurricane Teddy, originally expected to take along arc along the East Coast, is likely to stay out to sea.  But there's another threat.

Never mind the active storms or the disturbance shown on this map from today in yellow, as they have no chance of becoming tropical depressions.  As for the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico shown in red, red meaning a high chance of forming there's no indication that this system will make landfall if it developed.  Pay attention instead to the other disturbance shown in red, the one off the coast of Africa.  It's a 70 percent chance for forming by this coming weekend.  And as it will form that far south and move west over warm waters, it has a good chance of being a storm like Teddy and will likely receive the name Wilfred.

According to the area shaded in red, it's likely to take a west-northwest turn west of the 40th meridian like Teddy, but that doesn't mean that this likely storm will follow the same trajectory as Teddy.  All tropical cyclones are different from each other, and there's no guarantee that that pattern that is keeping Teddy out to sea will keep what I call Future Wilfred as well.  (And, truth be told, there's no guarantee that Teddy will be far out to sea enough not to affect land either.)  Although it's not showing up as a tropical system in any long-range projections yet, this disturbance could very well the next storm of this busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season and a storm that needs to be watched - and the last storm to be given a Christian name this season.

Even if Future Wilfred doesn't get the East Coast, by the way, a storm named for Greek letter just might.  I know we're past peak season, but remember - Sandy hit the American Northeast two days before Halloween, and at least one of the almanacs had forecast a hurricane threat for the Northeast around Columbus Day.