Hurricane Anxiety

Now here's something to get nervous about.

Hurricane Delta is now a remnant dumping rain in northern New Jersey, and despite earlier predictions of a deluge, the rain isn't too bad today.  Ironically, the Old Farmer's Almanac predicted a hurricane threat for the Northeast for this time in 2020, and the threat for this time turned out not to be a hurricane but what was left of one.

But hurricane season isn't over yet.  And October has become a month to dread in hurricane season, thanks to Sandy in 2012 and Matthew in 2016.  And there's reason to believe that we could have a hurricane similar to Sandy that could affect us at the same time of the month.  It could be even worse than Sandy, in fact.  

Here it is. 

This is the latest run from the GFS weather projection showing a Category 2 storm about a hundred miles off the New Jersey coast at 8:00 PM Eastern time, Monday, October 26.  The GFS sees this storm forming from a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea, where most tropical systems - including Sandy -  form at this time of year.  It wouldn't hit New Jersey directly - in this run, it would make landfall near Boston, in fact - but it could cause enough wind and rain to cause a whole lot of problems in the Garden State, possibly even a power outage that could rival the massive outages Sandy caused eight years ago.  Earlier projections showed this storm hearing out to sea father south, but this one proves that another storm like Sandy in late October of 2020 is not only possible, it could be likely.

There are a few mitigating factors. First of all, this is a 06z run, and those GFS runs tend to be less reliable than others.  Secondly, this is two weeks out; any GFS run that far out should be taken with a grain of salt, if not a whole salt shaker's worth.  Thirdly, this storm would come from a disturbance that hasn't even formed yet. (It would have to form this weekend at the earliest before developing into  a tropical depression.)  So there's no reason to worry - yet.  But the possibility is still there, and so anyone in the Northeast who follows these weather projections for whatever reason there might be will likely have a lot of sleepless nights.  Everyone else will be losing sleep later on if this projection bears out.  

All I can say now is, stay tuned.  Remember, hurricane season doesn't end until November 30.