Sunday, October 11, 2020

Anxiety (Get Nervous)

I'm not talking about a hit song from Pat Benatar.  I'm talking about the election.

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead in the polls, but there's enough of a margin of error in swing states to help Trump come from behind like he did last time.  An unscientific survey taken by Michael Smerconish on his CNN program showed that three out of five people don't trust the polls.  But it should give one some comfort that erroneous polling practices have been fixed since the polls of 2016 showed Hillary Clinton ahead by margins similar to the margins Biden enjoys today.  Throw in the pandemic and the lack of interest in third-party and independent candidates (Kanye West has all but disappeared, which would suggest that he would make a good candidate for Vice President) and Democrats can breathe more easily.  But not completely easily.  As long as Trump has a small chance he can win, he can still win.
That said, it's hard to imagine that scenario this time, especially when he refused to take part in a virtual debate out of fear of getting cut off if he tries to go over his time or talk over Biden.  Trump can reach more people in debates than he can at a rally, and he's having rallies again despite the fact that he's preaching to the converted.   
As a result, the town hall debate has been canceled, Biden refuses to renegotiate dates for debating that both campaigns agreed to back in the summer - and given his standing in the polls that three out of five people don't trust, Biden doesn't really have to debate again.  But he does have to campaign.  Even if the polls are right this time, the election is not in the bag for the Democrats yet.  Don't worry about that; Biden will still campaign and campaign hard because he knows what's at stake. 
But then, the fact that a lot is at stake is just yet another reason to get nervous. 

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