Coming Storms

No, not the elections of 2022 and 2024 . . . I mean actual, literal storms this year.

It looks like Hurricane Sam is going to miss not only the U.S. East Coast but Atlantic Canada.  Various computer projections of late have shown the storm curving eastward over the open ocean, with at least one projection showing it cross the Atlantic all the way to Scotland.  

But it looks like more storms are coming up in October.  The National Hurricane Center sees a high chance of not one, but two tropical depressions forming at the end of the week from a wave of the west coast of Africa.  It should be noted that not one tropical depression that has formed this year has failed to become named storm.  If either of these new depression were to fail to become a named storm, it would be a first for this season.

But even if those tropical storms don't reach land, other computer projections, mainly from the GFS, have shown a storm forming off Nicaragua's Mosquito Coast and taking a northward beeline for Cuba and then Florida.  Another GFS projection shows a storm forming off the southern coast of Hispaniola and making a beeline for the Northeast. For anyone who thought October would be a calmer month meteorologically . . . you got another thing comin', bucko.

Damn Sam!

Another tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and it is all but certain to become a tropical cyclone named Sam.

Sam is likely to form into a major hurricane by Monday.  Although early projections indicate that it will stay out to sea, this could change and it could affect the East Coast . . . possibly maintaining Category 3 strength or higher.

All tropical depressions that have formed in the Atlantic this year have become named cyclones. There have now been eighteen storms.  And while it took three months for the first nine storms to form, it only took one month for the second nine to storms to form.

Meanwhile, a cold front inching its way across the eastern U.S. could produce thunderstorms strong enough to knock out my power like the one that knocked it out last week.  Even if that doesn't happen, there will still be rain, and lots of it.

Welcome to climate change, ladies and gents. 😱  

Weather Weary

We're nearing the  peak of hurricane season soon, and it's too soon to say whether Tropical Storms Fay and Isaias are the worst storms my area is getting for this season.  Last week, we had a triple threat of severe thunderstorms - Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday - and we got at least one severe storm that passed before it could do any damage. But there are no indications that we're going to get anything comparable to those storms in the next two weeks.

That's not to say we won't get any inclement weather in the next two weeks.  A cold front arriving on Labor Day is expected to being showers and thunderstorms all up and down the Northeast . . . and it's going to stay here for much of the week.  It's too soon, though, to say whether any of them will be severe.  But tropical cyclones, though they will still form, will mostly stay away from the East Coast.  As I type, one tropical depression that formed off the East Coast and has become a tropical storm, though its trajectory will take it out to sea.  Any storm that forms off the west coast of Africa is likely to also remain out at sea, what's called a "fish storm" because those are the only living creatures affected.   (As for frog storms, you can read about those in the Old Testament.)  There is one potential cyclone that could affect land - a storm heading west across the Caribbean toward Central America.

It should be noted that even though the East Coast will not be affected by a tropical cyclone during hurricane peak period - September 10 and a couple of days before and after - we in the Northeast could still be hit by a hurricane much later.  Repeat: Sandy hit us in late October.  But for now, at least, the weather is giving us a break.