November Hurricane Anxiety

I thought I was done posting for the month of October.  But circumstances warrant me to post yet again . . . about the hurricane season.

The hurricane that was supposed to hit the American Northeast between this past Monday and Thursday didn't materialize, although Zeta did form from the same area that the hypothetical threat to the Northeast did - in the Western Caribbean.  And now there is a disturbance there that will all but certainly be a tropical storm, and possibly be a hurricane as well - to be named Eta.

The Euro, the Canadian, and the GFS all agree it would reach Central America after it forms.  But the GFS - which has been better this busy year in predicting hurricanes than the other computer projections - deviates from the others in bringing it northward.  Far northward.  Very far northward.  In fact, it brings it to . . . the Northeast. 

This is the 12z GFS run from today showing the Eastern Seaboard at 7:00 P.M., Wednesday, November 11 - Veterans' Day.  It's a 970-millibar storm that comes into and goes out of the Northeast within 24 hours after making landfall just west of Gainesville, Florida the day before and charging up the Interstate 95 corridor as if it were a car on that highway.  Okay, this projection is likely to change, but probably not by much - this is the fourth consecutive run showing what will likely be Eta affecting the entire Eastern Seaboard, and it's within the two-week window, not sixteen days out.  Because the GFS has been so good with hurricane projections this past year, this projection is all bad for those of us on this end of the country.

It wouldn't produce a lot of rain for New Jersey, actually - about an inch and a half - but, as we'd be on the right flank if this projection were to bear out, it would produce a lot of wind.  That would create a massive, long power outage.  A Sandy-like storm plus a pandemic - the perfect formula for a completely disastrous 2020, and that's not even factoring in what happens in the election.

Oh yeah, I had another power outage at my house today - a momentary one that was long enough to stop all the clocks, ironically, on the last day of Daylight Savings Time.  I've given up keeping track of a of the outages I've had since November 2009; I think it's been sixty or so.  But I can look forward to another one very, very soon if the GFS is right, and why would it be wrong now? 😱

And I thought 2020 was going to be a good year for me when it started.  My year? My foot! 😬    

Weather Weary

We're nearing the  peak of hurricane season soon, and it's too soon to say whether Tropical Storms Fay and Isaias are the worst storms my area is getting for this season.  Last week, we had a triple threat of severe thunderstorms - Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday - and we got at least one severe storm that passed before it could do any damage. But there are no indications that we're going to get anything comparable to those storms in the next two weeks.

That's not to say we won't get any inclement weather in the next two weeks.  A cold front arriving on Labor Day is expected to being showers and thunderstorms all up and down the Northeast . . . and it's going to stay here for much of the week.  It's too soon, though, to say whether any of them will be severe.  But tropical cyclones, though they will still form, will mostly stay away from the East Coast.  As I type, one tropical depression that formed off the East Coast and has become a tropical storm, though its trajectory will take it out to sea.  Any storm that forms off the west coast of Africa is likely to also remain out at sea, what's called a "fish storm" because those are the only living creatures affected.   (As for frog storms, you can read about those in the Old Testament.)  There is one potential cyclone that could affect land - a storm heading west across the Caribbean toward Central America.

It should be noted that even though the East Coast will not be affected by a tropical cyclone during hurricane peak period - September 10 and a couple of days before and after - we in the Northeast could still be hit by a hurricane much later.  Repeat: Sandy hit us in late October.  But for now, at least, the weather is giving us a break.

The Latest Weather

Yesterday it got up to 65 degrees Fahrenheit in the afternoon in northern New Jersey, despite the fact that it was the first day of February. Meanwhile, much of Europe is going through a deep freeze. The worst of the cold has been in Poland, Russia, Ukraine and the Balkans: Moscow saw temperatures of six degrees below zero Fahrenheit, while Romania has seen temperatures plummet to 26 below Fahrenheit. Several people in numerous European countries have died of hypothermia. Several villages in Bosnia and Serbia have been cut off by cold and snow, with supplies and rescues having to be made by helicopter.

The United Kingdom is experiencing a more moderate winter, certainly more moderate than the deep freezes of more recent years, with temperatures in London right around the freezing mark, but still below normal. The cold snap was big enough news in Britain to get disc jockeys on BBC Radio 2 to comment on it. So, yeah, it's a big freakin' deal.

The abnormally warm temperatures in the American Northeast should also be a big deal. I don't see spring- like days in early February as a good thing. I see it as the planet being completely out of whack. Because climate change means that not only is North America getting warmer, it means that much of Europe could end up in a new Ice Age. A good deal of Europe sits above the 50th parallel, and the Gulf Stream pretty much makes human habitation possible in Great Britain, Ireland and Norway.  Melting polar ice caps may have a tendency to skew the Gulf Stream rather considerably.

Back in the U.S., many folks in the Northeast took advantage of the abnormally (soon to be normally) warm temperatures, and I doubt many of them knew about the cold snap in Europe - especially if they read USA Today. People were in New York's Central Park soaking up the sun. In February. Don't they get it? It's like Michael Moore once said - If the sun rose at night, you'd be freaking out, yet warm temperatures in the northern U.S. in February are just as abnormal and unnatural. Wake up, America: Climate change is real!

And yet, I don't mind if it continues to be mild in my neck of the woods.  I hate myself right now.  

Oh yeah, today's Groundhog Day. Punxsutawney Phil in western Pennsylvania saw his shadow, meaning six more weeks of winter, but it New York City, Staten Island Chuck (Chuck?) did not see his shadow, meaning an early spring. Climate change even has the groundhogs confused.