In Like a Lion . . . Early

After a snowless winter for over two months, the Tri-State New York area got three to six inches of the white stuff yesterday, just before March came in.  

My immediate area only got a winter weather advisory, while other parts of the area were under a winter storm warning.  This comes after temperatures have been going up and down like a yo-yo all winter long . . . and when they go up is usually when it precipitates, hence rain instead of snow.

Tomorrow will by in the fifties so there will be a taste of spring, but the lion should roar again on Friday, when the greater New York area could experience every form of precipitation known to humankind.

Including freezing rain.

Good Lord! 

Let's Go, Landon?

No, the title is not a reference to a Republican presidential campaign slogan from 1936.  Landon is the name that The Weather Channel has given to the winter storm for this week.  And the reason I'm bringing up the weather again is that I may have to worry about an ice storm in my neck of the woods.

As the CNN map above shows, there will be a band of ice and sleet between snow on one side of a cold front and rain on the other side.  And the line is going to cross New Jersey over the course of the day on Friday, but right now no one seems to know for certain whether my area will get mostly rain, mostly ice, or mostly a wintry mix - though the third option is the likeliest one. But the Global Forecast System (GFS) pretty much has an ice storm on tap for my area, with a good deal of sleet and snow to follow, while the European, Canadian and NAM computer projections back a more rainy scenario with some mixed precipitation at the end.

The only good thing about all this is that the GFS is clearly the outlier for now, but the other projections could just easily align themselves with what it's spewing out.  And it was consistent in all four of its runs yesterday.  The odds favor the Euro and the Canadian because what the GFS is projecting isn't supposed to happen in my area.  We will see.      

Another Storm . . .

Well, I got through yesterday morning's storm, but the show's not over yet for this week, this one's a . . . well, you know the rest. 

As the map above from The Weather Channel shows, the Northeast will get some plowable snow tomorrow, and there could also be some ice mixed in - sleet, not freezing rain, so it seems.  I don't have to worry about icing this time.  (But folks in Virginia and points southwest will have to deal with icing again.)

This has been a very stormy pattern affecting much of the entire country,  Earlier this week, you could have driven (assuming it was safe) from Brownsville, Texas to Fort Kent, Maine by way of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys without going through a county not under a winter storm wanting.  Texas itself has gotten the sort of snow and subzero wind chills normally associate with Siberia, leading to electrical outages and delays of administering of COVID vaccines.

There's one more storm after this coming next Monday, but a less stormy pattern should settle in after that.

COVID On Ice

It's the worst possible forecast you can have at this time - a threat of significant (you never want to hear that word in a weather forecast!) icing in the middle of a pandemic.

The current forecast for my area hints at sleet with some light freezing rain for tonight into early tomorrow, which could produce a light glaze on bare outdoor surfaces - like streets and highways.  A more potent wintry mix delivering even more icing - possibly icing of catastrophic proportions - for Tuesday - has been in the forecast, but more recent reports seem to be backing away from this idea and suggesting plain rain that doesn't freeze on contact.  (Kentucky and Virginia haven't been so lucky, having both gotten sever ice storms already.)

So, even as the COVID virus is killing all of us, we have to deal with a winter Armageddon.  The endless cycle of storms should last another week and shut down after that, but the many rounds of bad winter weather we've been having these past couple of weeks only remind me why February has always been my least favorite month.

STELLA! STELLA!

The snowfall that hit New Jersey this past Friday was named Reggie by The Weather Channel, leading me to suspect that one day we'd get a winter storm named Jughead.  But the next one that's coming tomorrow will be named after a character in A Streetcar Named Desire.

Whatever.  Anyway, this storm is expected to dump almost as much snow as the January 2016 nor'easter, if not exactly as much . . . or even more so.  The only weather computer model predicting less than a foot for my area was the GFS, until early this morning, when it joined all of the others.

The map above is from the latest Canadian model, showing the storm at 2 PM Eastern Time Tuesday.  It looks pretty bad. It could be worse.  No, really, it could.  And once again, despite the fact that I've only lost electricity once in a snowstorm that took place between December and March, I'm antsy about a possible blackout tomorrow - after 38 blackouts of varying duration since November 2009. 

I hope I and everyone else affected makes it through the storm all right.  But as far as I am concerned, every weather geek online who was wishing for a blizzard when this storm first became a possibility five days ago, are peeing in their pants in excitement over this storm, and are rooting for another snowfall next weekend (as some computer models are apparently pointing to) should be drawn and quartered, and anyone who happily yells "BLIZZAWD! BLIZZAWD!" in public has a special place in hell reserved for them. 

Stay tuned, I may be back . . ..     

Because The Wind Is High a Third Time . . .

Oh, wonderful.

My electricity stayed on during the snowstorm this past week all right, and it looks a threatened snowfall for this coming week may not amount too much but tomorrow my area may be - and will likely be  - under a high wind warning for a third time this winter (there's a high wind watch as I type), with the promise of another outage opportunity.

All over New Jersey, in fact.

Forget terrorism.  My biggest fear is the weather.  Trump would make me feel a whole lot better if he suddenly realized that climate change is a bigger threat to our safety and happiness than the Islamic State.

Did I happen to mention that AccuWeather is predicting an ice storm for early March?

Okay, it's eighteen days out, and AccuWeather's predictions for an ice storm for fewer days out than that have proven to be erroneous in past winters, but there's always a first time for AccuWeather to live up to its name, isn't there? :-O      

Winter Forecast: Snow Bright Side

The winter storm predicted for today is expected to be worse - much worse - than previously anticipated.  

What was expected to be two to four inches in northern New Jersey is now expected to be six to ten inches, with as much of a foot in some places.  But the warm temperatures from yesterday have made the ground too warm for the snow to stick too much, right?  Wrong - the sharply colder temperatures will freeze the ground pretty quickly.  But wasn't the storm supposed to start out as rain, which would theoretically hold snow totals down before the changeover?  It's going to start as snow and end as snow.  Period.

But the storm will end soon, right?  Perhaps you weren't paying attention - we could get up to a foot!  If it ends as quickly as expected, we could see snowfall an inch an hour - or more.  But it will only be disruptive, not crippling, right?  It's going to be heavy, wet snow - and if it falls as fast as predicted, it could take down some power lines . . . right before temperatures dip into the teens.

Don't look for a mitigating factor.  There is no such thing with this storm.  Stay tuned.  I may be back. :-O 

Wild Winter Weather

It was somewhat mild yesterday, but it's be warmer with rain today, followed by a mild springlike day tomorrow in advance of . . . three to six inches of snow tomorrow night into Thursday??

What is this, March?

Well, no, it's February, and you don't normally see winter get this volatile this early, and the thought of snow later this week wouldn't be so bad if it weren't for the fact that this is expected to be heavy wet snow that could fall at an inch or two an hour. It's not supposed to be a nor'easter, and it should be out of the way quickly, but the nature and rapidity of the snowfall could be as bad as any long blizzard.

The first half of winter is over, but the second half could get more, uh, interesting.  After a brief cold snap, we could get rain this coming weekend.  Some long-range forecasts show a major rainstorm bringing in March like a lion around the first weekend of the month.  

And Donald Trump doesn't believe in climate change.

Meanwhile, French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, well aware of Trump's ignorance of the subject, says that, if elected, he will encourage American scientists and renewable-energy entrepreneurs to move to France and continue their work without fear of being undermined.  It looks like America could be on the wrong end of a brain drain that benefits the French.  Only it's not going to be jazz singers and actors we're losing to France this time.      

An Ice Weekend?

We just got a few inches of snow where I live.  In the meantime, I've seen some weather reports indicating rain and freezing rain for the Martin Luther King holiday coming up next weekend . . . specifically, next Sunday night into Monday morning.  It's expected to be light - so far - and it should hopefully warm up to the point where it's only plain rain.  But this forecast is still a week out.  An ice storm isn't out ofthe question.  Remember, a week before Hurricane Sandy, that storm was excepted to miss us entirely.  

So now I wait to see if we in fact will experience our first electrical outage of 2017, or whether we get through it and still hold out hope for our first outage-free calendar year since 2008 (yeah, right).  Also, even if we do escape ice next weekend, there's another threat coming late next week.

Why do I still write about possible ice storms despite the fact that they never seem to materialize?  I figure that if I keep writing about it, then nothing will happen.  Hey, it's worked so far!

In the meantime, this week is supposed to be warm after a bitterly cold start.   

Where's Spring??

How long is it taking winter to end in the Northeast?

I once heard an Emerson, Lake and Palmer record that seemed less interminable.

Snowfall is predicted for the Northeast tomorrow, and not necessarily just a coating - there are forecasts of up to ten inches in New Jersey, where I live. A winter storm watch for my home county of Essex has been downgraded to a much less serious winter weather advisory, and for only twelve hours - midnight tonight to noon tomorrow. A winter storm warning, however, is in effect for Morris County - right next door.

So while my hometown will probably get a mix of rain and snow with less accumulation, I probably won't see much in the way of grass for awhile after today.

I'm just glad Easter falls late this year. It's hard celebrating Easter when the weather makes it seem like Christmas.