I'm Dreaming of a White COVID - The Sequel

 Swell.

We have another major snowstorm bearing down on the American Northeast, where I live, at the same time we're being warned that the COVID crisis could last right into 2022 and get even worse before it gets worse still.  As for the snow . . . up to two feet, gusty winds, blackout threat  - all of the stuff we had to go through in the storm we had back in December 2020.  Except that, unlike that storm, this one could live up to the hype.

I'll back - I don't know when, obviously - to talk more about the COVID crisis, but after hearing everything Michael Osterholm and Laurie Garrett have said about what to expect, between COVID and the heavy snow, I prefer the heavy snow.  At least I know the snow is going to melt away.

And I'm convinced that if Osterholm and Garrett were husband and wife, they'd probably celebrate their wedding anniversary with cups of hemlock.

I'm Dreaming of a White COVID

Allow me to get personal here.

Recent events in the outside world and my personal life have caused me to sink into a deep depression.  I have had to battle with anent-mindedness and inattentiveness all my life, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which has robbed, like everyone else of a normal life and has caused me - again, like everyone else - to spend most of my time at home have taken a toll on my psychological well-being.  And now, having already endured the worst year of my life, it's going to get even worse with tomorrow's weather - a snowstorm that threatens to become a full-blown blizzard.   

I don't have to clear the snow - we have someone who does that for us - but the idea of having a winter storm forecasters have been calling "major," "powerful" and "significant" - again, adjectives you never want to see in any weather forecast - this early in the season at a time when we're in the worst of the worst pandemic in a century depresses me even more.  (I may even have to worry about the possibility of an electrical outage!)  Somehow, despite the COVID vaccines, the sentence "We will get through this" has come to sound empty and meaningless.  And to think this year started with a benign winter and nothing but better times that I - and I'm sure, you as well - was looking forward to.

The good news is that 2020 will end. The bad news is that 2021 isn't really going to be all that much better.  I'll have more to say about this outgoing year when it's all but over. 😞 😧

Snow and Ice and Rain . . .

The Northeast is about to get its first big snowfall of the meteorological winter of 2019-20. . . on the first day, tomorrow (December 1).  And if that weren't bad enough, sleet and freezing rain are in the mix.  

Right now, my area may not get the worst of the snow, but ice accretion is still a concern.  As I type this, there's a worst-case scenario for my area with regard to ice, but hopefully it will be more sleet (frozen ice pellets, less treacherous) than freezing rain (rain freezes on contact, ice weighs down branches and power lines, no one wants that to happen!).  Not all of the rain we get will freeze, though.  However, I feel frustrated, because I haven't finished raking the autumn leaves, and now I have to worry about a winter storm.

I'd move to southern California, but I'd rather deal with a thousand snowstorms (but no ice storms) than a single firestorm.

Not feeling very inspired right now. Sorry . . .   

Beware of Maya

The winter storm The Weather Channel has named for the Hindi word for "illusion" is no illusion, it's the real thing.  It's bringing snow, ice and rain to my area tomorrow after having wreaked havoc elsewhere, and even though the ice my area is expected to get is more likely to be sleet - rain that freezes in midair - than rain that freezes the moment it comes into contact with whatever it touches, like tree limbs and power lines, it's still going to be a nasty storm for us.  So, even though it won't be a bona fide ice storm, a 49th power outage for my block, counting from November 2009, can't be ruled out entirely.

I've had an easy winter, and the idea that would remain easy was just an illusion; this is Mother Nature's way of having everything turn out even, especially after it was over sixty degrees Fahrenheit  early last week.

Stick around. I may be back soon.

Snow and Ice and Rain, Oh My!

As you've probably been hearing all week, a dangerous winter storm bringing every form of precipitation known to humankind has been marching across the 48 contiguous United States.  The storm, which The Weather Channel inexplicably decided to name after Paul Simon's eldest son (weather forecasters who don't work for The Weather Channel don't name winter storms, and they go  to great lengths not to use the names The Weather Channel assigns to them), is bringing snow, rain,. sleet, and freezing rain to just about anywhere. California got hit with rain and snow already.  The Great Plains have been walloped with snow and the Midwest has gotten snow and ice as well.  In the Northeast, we've been awaiting our turn, which is coming some time after I publish this. 

Ice has been the main concern for my immediate area, with threats of significant icing in parts of New Jersey north and west of New York City.  Icing occurs when warm air aloft causes snow to melt into raindrops over frozen ground and then refreeze on contact - freezing rain.  That's different from sleet, where melted snow refreezes into pellets before it hits the ground.  Earlier forecasts for my area called for snow to change to rain and for ground-level temperatures to be cold enough to allow rain to freeze on the ground and create ice heavy enough to bring down trees . . . and power lines.  This in an area where I have had to endure no fewer than 48 outages in the past decade.  At this writing, however, more recent forecasts call for snow to change to rain where I live and not freeze on the ground, as temperatures will be rising through the night and in the overnight hours.  So I think my neighborhood will be spared icing.    

I think we will be spared icing because after the precipitation ends by midday tomorrow, the temperature will start to fall, falling to 32 degrees Fahrenheit around 3 P.M., falling to about 24 after sunset, falling to 13 by midnight and finally bottoming out at 6 at 9 A.M. Monday.  And another forecast says that freezing rain in my area is still a possibility for tonight.  But the falling temperatures throughout Sunday afternoon and evening are the primary concerns here, because they will cause a flash freezing of any collected water that hasn't evaporated from the winds, which will also be picking up.  High wind speed plus freezing water on power lines and trees equal disaster.  

While I'm a little more confident than I was yesterday that my block will be speared a power outage, I'm not taking any chances as far as my blogs are concerned.  I have written a blog entry and scheduled it to be published on Tuesday, January 22, but I don't expect to write anything else here if a blackout occurs.  Maybe not even if a blackout doesn't occur; I have other and more important things to do online this coming week.  Also, I have rescheduled posts on my beautiful-women picture blog so that, after a post today,  there will not be a new post there until Friday.

As for my non-online life, I have plans to encase food in Styrofoam boxes and store them in a cold place if my power does go out, and I may have to leave the water running to prevent freezing pipes.  But whatever happens, it's actually supposed to get up to the mid-forties by Wednesday.

I hope to be back in a timely matter.  Stay tuned.     

What Could Be Worse Than Three March Nor'easters?

How about four March nor'easters?

Yes, another coastal system his headed up the American East Coast, and yes, it will be a nor'easter (forecasters are calling this fourth nor'easter a "foureaster"), with winds gusting at speeds just above tropical storm force - inland as well as along the shore.

This storm was expected to pass south of the New York City area, and part of will do so tomorrow, but a second part is expected to come up the coast on Wednesday - the first full day of spring - and Wednesday just happens to be the only day this week where temperatures won't make it comfortably above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning more snow than rain.

If there's any good news here, it's that accumulations in northern New Jersey, as these maps from the National Weather Service indicate, should be modest - two or three inches, which is the equivalent of a quarter of an inch of rain - and that the sun angle resulting from the vernal equinox should prevent much of it from sticking.  But I'm concerned about the winds.  The ground is so moist and the wind gusts are expected to be strong, and my neighborhood has been subjected to mass deforestation as a result of the previous storms.  At this point, I'm tired of all this and I am patiently waiting for spring weather.  I feel like I'm waiting for a moment that just won't come.

I hope March goes out as quietly as it came in ferociously, but we shouldn't be too sure of that. :-(  I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  This month wasn't named after the Roman war god for nothing.       

In Like a Lion . . . Again

The weather will be rocking and rolling in my neck of the woods to start off March.  The American Northeast is about to be subject to a nor'easter, and not only has confidence been growing in the forecasts for a big storm, predictions for how bad it will be have progressively worsened.  After a hopeful sign that the storm, expected to begin tomorrow night and produce two inches of rain, could be gone by late Friday, it is now expected to linger into Saturday morning.  And after early signs that the winds would be at a manageable 20 to 25 miles an hour, they could now be as high as 35 mph, and that's just inland - not at the coast, where winds could be higher still and cause flooding at high tide under a full moon.  And oh yes, the heavy rain could turn to snow just before it tapers off.

We're going to get everything.

And how will this affect my electricity, which has gone out over forty times in the past ten years?  I don't know yet, but right now I'm cautiously optimistic, because it could be worse.  Tempering that hope, of course, is the fact that the forecast has been getting worse.  As always, stay tuned - I may be back.  

First Snow Of the Year

And it might be worse than it currently appears. 

This is the amount of snow forecast for New Jersey on Thursday, courtesy of News 12 New Jersey.  This snow is due to a big, powerful, significant, massive storm - described with all of the adjectives you never want to hear in any weather forecast - and even though my area is in the two- to four-inch range (in fact, I'm in the edge between a coating to two inches and two to four inches) and there's no winter storm watch for my county as of yet, those numbers could increase and there could be a storm alert for my county if the storm continues to turned west as it has been doing.  (As anyone who's ever seen Kanye pop up on hot topics online can attest, "trending" and "west" are two words you never want to hear together.)   This storm will include high winds, the most severe of which will be at the shoreline.

Then, after the storm, comes the worst cold of this winter so far - single-digit highs and sub-zero lows!  The good news?   It'll warm up into the forties by next Monday.  (Remember, all temperatures are Fahrenheit.)  Since I likely won't get the worst winds or the worst snow, I think my electricity should be alright.  

My pipes, on the other hand . . .

Ima let you thaw, but . . .   

STELLA! STELLA!

The snowfall that hit New Jersey this past Friday was named Reggie by The Weather Channel, leading me to suspect that one day we'd get a winter storm named Jughead.  But the next one that's coming tomorrow will be named after a character in A Streetcar Named Desire.

Whatever.  Anyway, this storm is expected to dump almost as much snow as the January 2016 nor'easter, if not exactly as much . . . or even more so.  The only weather computer model predicting less than a foot for my area was the GFS, until early this morning, when it joined all of the others.

The map above is from the latest Canadian model, showing the storm at 2 PM Eastern Time Tuesday.  It looks pretty bad. It could be worse.  No, really, it could.  And once again, despite the fact that I've only lost electricity once in a snowstorm that took place between December and March, I'm antsy about a possible blackout tomorrow - after 38 blackouts of varying duration since November 2009. 

I hope I and everyone else affected makes it through the storm all right.  But as far as I am concerned, every weather geek online who was wishing for a blizzard when this storm first became a possibility five days ago, are peeing in their pants in excitement over this storm, and are rooting for another snowfall next weekend (as some computer models are apparently pointing to) should be drawn and quartered, and anyone who happily yells "BLIZZAWD! BLIZZAWD!" in public has a special place in hell reserved for them. 

Stay tuned, I may be back . . ..     

False Weather Alarm

So it didn't snow yesterday where I live after all. No, I'll qualify that. It did snow a bit around eleven o'clock in the morning or so, but nothing stuck. It was mostly a cold rain.

So what happened? Well, the forecast was no April Fool's joke. As the nor'easter got closer it looked like it would dump snow in northern New Jersey, but as the track of the storm became clearer and as the forecasts were revised, it became obvious that it wouldn't amount to much if anything for most of us. The winter storm warning for Morris County was downgraded to a winter weather advisory, and the winter weather advisory for Essex County was canceled Thursday night.

So much of New Jersey dodged a bullet. The heaviest snow from this April storm fell in Massachusetts and Maine. The center of Massachusetts was hit fairly hard. But here the storm wimped out. Today has been very pleasant.

New Jersey isn't out of the woods yet. Some thundershowers and wind storms are moving across the country and are expected to hit New Jersey Tuesday morning. Welcome to April, the cruelest month.

The Mother Of All Storms

I can't remember a winter storm being this bad. The nor'easter that hit the greater New York area this past weekend didn't produce any snow, and there was no winter storm warning, but it was still a winter storm (spring hasn't officially begun yet), a storm full of howling wind and driving rain, and it was a doozy. The storm left over 300,000 houses without power, my house included. But that's just part of the story. My cable service went out. That meant no telephone service, no television, and no Internet connection. The power was only off for five hours - some people are still experiencing outages as I type - but my cable outage lasted nineteen hours. The service finally came back on at 11:00 PM last night.

Then, overnight, it went out again.

And now? I'm typing this blog entry from a computer in my local library. You can guess the rest.

How long will I be without any form of communication at home? Speaking of guessing, I can only guess that, too.

I can't wait until spring.