In Like a Lion . . . Early

After a snowless winter for over two months, the Tri-State New York area got three to six inches of the white stuff yesterday, just before March came in.  

My immediate area only got a winter weather advisory, while other parts of the area were under a winter storm warning.  This comes after temperatures have been going up and down like a yo-yo all winter long . . . and when they go up is usually when it precipitates, hence rain instead of snow.

Tomorrow will by in the fifties so there will be a taste of spring, but the lion should roar again on Friday, when the greater New York area could experience every form of precipitation known to humankind.

Including freezing rain.

Good Lord! 

L.A. Snow?

You may have heard that a major winter storm is bearing down on southern California.  You may have seen the headline about "Los Angeles snow."  Well, that's misleading.  Los Angeles is not getting any snow from this storm.  It's just getting a lot of rain, with temperatures in the 50s.  

But in the mountains just a few miles away . . .

Did I happen to mention overnight temperatures in the teens?

Climate change is real, people!

Cruz (Damage) Control

I don't think I've seen the sort of incompetence over the handling of the power crisis in Texas in any previous crisis, and I remember Hurricane Katrina.  Texas, still thinking it's a independent republic, has its own power grid, and the deregulation of the electricity in the state allowed the grid to remain unwinterized despite the growing evidence that climate change not only causes hotter summer s and stronger hurricanes but colder winters in the nation's midsection thanks to a greater flow of polar air form up north.  Governor Greg Abbott is blaming the failure of the electricity on wind power despite the greater reliance on fossil fuels, and others are fingering the Green New Deal, which, last I checked, hasn't been implemented.  But all of this pales in comparison to how Texas's junior U.S. Senator has handled it.

As you all know by now, Ted Cruz (above) hightailed it out of Houston and took his wife and daughters to Cancun, Mexico to escape the cold while millions of Texans were freezing in the dark with no running water - and the water crisis and the burst pipes resulting from unheated buildings have made things exponentially worse.  Cruz tried to patch things up, saying that was only going to drop off his daughters and come back (not true), the trip had been planned ahead of time (it was a last-minute decision) and that he shouldn't have taken his daughters' advice to take the family to Mexico (sure, blame the kids, especially when your kids are girls).  And then he admitted it was a "mistake."

The only reason that isn't an understatement is because Cruz tried to stop Joe Biden's election to the President during the Capitol insurrection and hasn't even admitted to that being a mistake.  Everything Cruz does is meant to further his own interests and make himself look good. Too bad for him that he won't succeed at that.  Democrats and Republicans rarely agree on anything in Washington, by Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Senate all agree that Cruz is the biggest schmuck in the upper house of Congress and everyone hates him.

While Cruz was trying to get away to Cancun, Beto O'Rourke was back home in Texas distributing emergency supplies to local residents and getting others to help pitch in.  In other words, exactly what Cruz is supposed to do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that O'Rourke and not Cruz had won the 2018 Senate election in Texas.  In 2024, when Cruz is up again, that outcome is very much a possibility.

Snovember

A November snowstorm in the Northeast?  Let's review:

Initial forecasts for snow on November 15, 2018 in the greater New York area called for one to three inches, turning to rain by 6 P.M. and washing the snow away.  No big deal.

Then forecasts called for two to four inches with the snow turning to rain at about 9 P.M.  Still, no big deal.  Just a winter weather advisory for my area.

Then on the appointed day of the snowfall, last-minute forecast changes upgraded the advisory to a winter storm warning - ironically, without warning - and more than six inches - nine inches in some parts of New Jersey - fell and fell fast.  And Governor Murphy in New Jersey and Mayor de Blasio in New York City are in trouble for being ill-prepared for a storm that wasn't supposed to be so bad and for preparing for what the forecasters originally told them?  This was comparable to cooking dinner for two guests and finding out that eight people are showing up for dinner half an hour before the main course is ready to take out of the oven. 

And I, meanwhile, had to shovel the snow myself rather than call someone to do it for me, which I hadn't done in time for the same reason public officials didn't take the storm - now being called a nor'easter - seriously:  The forecast had called for a manageable, negligible snowfall and then almost literally changed at the last minute, and it was too late to adapt.  I could no longer call the kid who clears our snow for us; it would have taken him forever to get to my house if I tried to call him at the last minute.

And the snow hasn't really washed away, because snow half a foot deep in sub-40-degree-Fahrenheit weather has a tendency to take its sweet time melting.  Besides, the rain we got turned back to snow in the end, and the roads were still covered with icy slush when the skies cleared.

Call this storm a November surprise.

At least our electricity didn't go out due to snow on leafy trees. 

What Could Be Worse Than Two March Nor'easters?

How about three March nor'easters?

Once upon a time you got one big snowstorm to end the winter in March, and then . . . spring.  Spring, at last, glorious spring.  But this winter doesn't want to give up.  A third major (you never want to hear that word in any forecast!) coastal storm could affect the Northeast.  This comes on top of a snowstorm that spewed two feet of snow on my area like Linda Blair in The Exorcist spewing out pea soup.  It brought down trees and power lines all over Essex County, New Jersey, which was the epicenter of the heaviest of the heaviest snowfall.  The snow was of the wet variety, not the dry powdery stuff.  It did indeed bring down trees and power lines, leaving numerous New Jerseyans (and not just Essex County residents) in the dark.  Although my house was not blacked out, my property was not spared - I have an evergreen tree that's a whole lot shorter than it used to be, its top shorn off and deposited upside down in a snowbank next to a red maple tree as tall as the evergreen treetop.   

If there's anything positive to be said about this third storm (and believe me, I'm stretching it here!), it's that it may not be as bad as the last two.  

Although the March 11 Global Forecast System (GFS) 0z map for Tuesday morning, March 13 (above) looks ominous, this storm is likely to spare northern New Jersey of the heaviest snow, putting down two or three inches where I live and more east of New York City - and up to nearly a foot in Boston.  The snowfall map from the GFS March 11 0z run below shows the projected 24-hour  snowfall total as of 8 PM Eastern Time March 13.

Sadly, this offers little consolation to those who have been without electricity since this past Wednesday (March 7) and absolutely no consolation at all to those who have been without electricity since the first storm hit on March 2.  A lot of us are just ready to give up in disgust at the sight of even one more millimeter of snow.

What Could Be Worse Than a March Nor'easter?

How abut two March nor'easters?

The National Weather Service is predicting another coastal storm for the American Northeast to strike tomorrow.  I got through the last storm this past Friday without a blackout, and because the wind is not expected to be severe as last time, the chances of a blackout from wind in this next storm are much less likely.  However, because we could get an average of ten inches of snow, and because the snow is of the heavy and wet, not powdery and dry, variety, it could still do a number on our electricity by accumulating on the power lines.  True, wet snow has knocked our power out only once before in a snowstorm between early December and late March, but if there's always a first time, there's always a second time as well.  And that means that Donald Trump could get re-elected President.

Oh yeah, a third nor'easter is possible next week.  And, truth be told, the last nor'easter wasn't supposed to be as bad inland as along the coast; in fact, inland northern New Jersey suffered the most blackouts and the greatest damage in the state from it. 

For personal as well as meteorological reasons, this is turning out to be my worst March in years.  Sometimes I wish I were more like Alice Cooper, whose image is in the meme above (stolen from the 1978 Sgt. Pepper movie).  Do I mean that I'd like to have a No-More Mr.-Nice-Guy, take-no-prisoners approach and just laugh at all the horror around me?  No, I mean I wish I could just dunk my face in a pie and sleep through everything! :-D      

So Cold It Blows

The forecast for a snowstorm that was supposed to be no big deal for my area turned out to be just that.  The coastal storm shifted more inland even as its pressure rapidly dropped with no floor in sight - a process called "bombogenesis," the word twisted out of proportion by on-camera TV meteorologists who want to scare people - and produced more snow than initially expected.  (Ain't that always the case?)  But the snowfall paled in comparison to the bitter winds and the equally bitter cold that have followed - temperatures are supposed to get below zero this weekend, and to respond to complaints from foreigners that I'm making too big a deal of sub-zero readings . . . I ain't talking Celsius!  (It's going to be 18 or 19 below Celsius, is that below zero enough for you fans of centigrade?)

To add insult to injury, even though temperatures are supposed to recover to a point above freezing by Monday, the "warmup" could be accompanied by rain and sleet.  And some forecasts haven't ruled out some sort of ice accretion in the Northeast next weekend.

Anyway, we in New Jersey got lucky.  The South Shore of Massachusetts - where some of my friends live - got hit hard, particularly Kingston and Scituate. Maine and Nova Scotia got hit worse.  There should be a January thaw for the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes soon, but February could see more of what we just had.

Winter is only beginning . . .

The latest hijinks in Trump World?  Relax, I'll get to it.

STELLA! STELLA!

The snowfall that hit New Jersey this past Friday was named Reggie by The Weather Channel, leading me to suspect that one day we'd get a winter storm named Jughead.  But the next one that's coming tomorrow will be named after a character in A Streetcar Named Desire.

Whatever.  Anyway, this storm is expected to dump almost as much snow as the January 2016 nor'easter, if not exactly as much . . . or even more so.  The only weather computer model predicting less than a foot for my area was the GFS, until early this morning, when it joined all of the others.

The map above is from the latest Canadian model, showing the storm at 2 PM Eastern Time Tuesday.  It looks pretty bad. It could be worse.  No, really, it could.  And once again, despite the fact that I've only lost electricity once in a snowstorm that took place between December and March, I'm antsy about a possible blackout tomorrow - after 38 blackouts of varying duration since November 2009. 

I hope I and everyone else affected makes it through the storm all right.  But as far as I am concerned, every weather geek online who was wishing for a blizzard when this storm first became a possibility five days ago, are peeing in their pants in excitement over this storm, and are rooting for another snowfall next weekend (as some computer models are apparently pointing to) should be drawn and quartered, and anyone who happily yells "BLIZZAWD! BLIZZAWD!" in public has a special place in hell reserved for them. 

Stay tuned, I may be back . . ..     

Winter Forecast: Snow Bright Side

The winter storm predicted for today is expected to be worse - much worse - than previously anticipated.  

What was expected to be two to four inches in northern New Jersey is now expected to be six to ten inches, with as much of a foot in some places.  But the warm temperatures from yesterday have made the ground too warm for the snow to stick too much, right?  Wrong - the sharply colder temperatures will freeze the ground pretty quickly.  But wasn't the storm supposed to start out as rain, which would theoretically hold snow totals down before the changeover?  It's going to start as snow and end as snow.  Period.

But the storm will end soon, right?  Perhaps you weren't paying attention - we could get up to a foot!  If it ends as quickly as expected, we could see snowfall an inch an hour - or more.  But it will only be disruptive, not crippling, right?  It's going to be heavy, wet snow - and if it falls as fast as predicted, it could take down some power lines . . . right before temperatures dip into the teens.

Don't look for a mitigating factor.  There is no such thing with this storm.  Stay tuned.  I may be back. :-O 

Where's Spring??

How long is it taking winter to end in the Northeast?

I once heard an Emerson, Lake and Palmer record that seemed less interminable.

Snowfall is predicted for the Northeast tomorrow, and not necessarily just a coating - there are forecasts of up to ten inches in New Jersey, where I live. A winter storm watch for my home county of Essex has been downgraded to a much less serious winter weather advisory, and for only twelve hours - midnight tonight to noon tomorrow. A winter storm warning, however, is in effect for Morris County - right next door.

So while my hometown will probably get a mix of rain and snow with less accumulation, I probably won't see much in the way of grass for awhile after today.

I'm just glad Easter falls late this year. It's hard celebrating Easter when the weather makes it seem like Christmas.

Snowblind

Noted reckless driver Chris Christie, who recently replaced Joe Piscopo as the official state embarrassment, is finally on the receiving end of mainstream media criticism from people not named Ed Schultz. As you all know by now, Christie was on vacation in Disney World in Florida when the Christmas weekend blizzard hit New Jersey, and he didn't see fit to return home as quickly as possible to fulfill his constitutional role as governor and take charge of a major emergency. Rumor has it that he couldn't leave because he had trouble wedging himself out of his seat in the teacup ride.

On December 22, when the forecast for the coming weekend suggested light snow showers, Christie - unaware that forecasts are subject to change - informed New Jersey Senate President Stephen Sweeney that he and Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno would be out of the state for the holiday and that he, Sweeney, would thus serve as acting governor. Neither Christie nor Sweeney likely expected anything to happen, but with the possibility of a blizzard very much in the air, so to speak - forecasters couldn't rule it out - it didn't look good for both the governor and the lieutenant governor to make tracks for warmer climates. (While Christie was at Disney World, Guadagno went to Mexico.) Ironically, the recent creation of the office of lieutenant governor was meant to lessen the the need for the Senate president to be acting governor.

Sweeney performed admirably during the emergency - more so than New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who seemed to be tone deaf to cries about unplowed streets in the city's outer boroughs - and garnered a lot of good press for his efforts. When Christie returned to New Jersey, he was lambasted, and rightly so, for putting personal interest over state concerns. Kim Guadagno had to go to see Mexico to be with her ailing father, who most likely won't live much longer, so it only made sense for Christie to cancel his family's trip to Disney World rather than leave the state to deal with a major winter storm on its own. But Christie was adamant, insisting that he promised his kids a trip to Disney World and saying that his family comes first.

So why is he the governor of New Jersey?

Can you imagine the idea of President Christie? ("I promised my kids a trip to Australia, and with Vice President Fiorina also out of the country, I was certain Speaker Bachmann could handle the blackout riots in Phoenix. Sending a Blackwater contingent in to restore order was the right thing to do.")

At least Bloomberg was on the ground when the storm hit, and he was contrite about his failures. So while Newark mayor Cory Booker was going all over the city (also underplowed like New York) to help shovel snow and let everyone know about it via Twitter, getting good press like Sweeney, Christie had to face a different kind of storm - a media storm of questions about his sense of priority, his sense of responsibility, and his fitness to govern.

Where were all these reporters when Christie cut taxes on the wealthy? How come no one questioned his fitness for office when he cut spending on various social programs and raised fees and transit fares? How come Steve Kroft didn't point out any of this in his interview with the governor on "60 Minutes" for a story about state and local budget crises?

Christie faced questions about his ineffectiveness this time because the problem - the snowstorm - was so obvious. Most of his crimes against New Jersey have to be explained with statistics and charts - you know, boring stuff - and so the media have given him a pass. So if you think this is the start of a more serious look at the governor of New Jersey, think again.

Christie, for his part, deflected blame for the handling of the snow local governments. He also said the media made a big deal out of it because they had nothing else to talk about during a slow news week. If the media only saw what he gets away with in other weeks, they'd have far more damning news to report than this.

Snow Big Deal

The snowstorm that passed through the American East turned out to be a raspberry for the greater New York area, which includes northern New Jersey, where what little snow that fell wasn't even enough to be considered a dusting. But it was very different in central and southern New Jersey, and especially Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and much of Virginia and West Virginia. In some parts of New Jersey the snow measured anywhere between 18 and 24 inches, and it got up to 30 inches in the nation's capital. Snowfall totals for Washington were the most for a single storm in ninety years.

Maybe the politicians will take advantage of being snowed in together and accomplish something.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned DJ Pete Fornatale had his annual midwinter show on New York's WFUV-FM. As always, he devoted his air time to songs about or mentioning winter with, of course, special emphasis on winter songs - "Sleigh Ride," Jingle Bells," "Winter Wonderland" - that are associated exclusively with Christmas and are no longer played on the radio after the holiday season but have nothing to do with Christmas. He set out to play six different versions of "Winter Wonderland" to drive the point home.

Five were played. See, Fornatale was not on the air live; he taped his show, or at least his studio banter, in advance. Someone at the station must have screwed up, because when Dion's version of "Winter Wonderland" was supposed to be played, the station aired Dion's cover of "White Christmas" instead.

Oops.

Anyway, residents of northern New Jersey and New York City will get to walk in a winter wonderland soon enough. Another winter storm is predicted for Wednesday, and this one should hit our area, though maybe not as severely as the previous storm hit the rest of the mid-Atlantic region. We'll see. We in the greater New York area have been lucky this winter; this will only be the second big storm of the season. But I still can't wait for spring.