Let's Go, Landon?

No, the title is not a reference to a Republican presidential campaign slogan from 1936.  Landon is the name that The Weather Channel has given to the winter storm for this week.  And the reason I'm bringing up the weather again is that I may have to worry about an ice storm in my neck of the woods.

As the CNN map above shows, there will be a band of ice and sleet between snow on one side of a cold front and rain on the other side.  And the line is going to cross New Jersey over the course of the day on Friday, but right now no one seems to know for certain whether my area will get mostly rain, mostly ice, or mostly a wintry mix - though the third option is the likeliest one. But the Global Forecast System (GFS) pretty much has an ice storm on tap for my area, with a good deal of sleet and snow to follow, while the European, Canadian and NAM computer projections back a more rainy scenario with some mixed precipitation at the end.

The only good thing about all this is that the GFS is clearly the outlier for now, but the other projections could just easily align themselves with what it's spewing out.  And it was consistent in all four of its runs yesterday.  The odds favor the Euro and the Canadian because what the GFS is projecting isn't supposed to happen in my area.  We will see.      

COVID On Ice

It's the worst possible forecast you can have at this time - a threat of significant (you never want to hear that word in a weather forecast!) icing in the middle of a pandemic.

The current forecast for my area hints at sleet with some light freezing rain for tonight into early tomorrow, which could produce a light glaze on bare outdoor surfaces - like streets and highways.  A more potent wintry mix delivering even more icing - possibly icing of catastrophic proportions - for Tuesday - has been in the forecast, but more recent reports seem to be backing away from this idea and suggesting plain rain that doesn't freeze on contact.  (Kentucky and Virginia haven't been so lucky, having both gotten sever ice storms already.)

So, even as the COVID virus is killing all of us, we have to deal with a winter Armageddon.  The endless cycle of storms should last another week and shut down after that, but the many rounds of bad winter weather we've been having these past couple of weeks only remind me why February has always been my least favorite month.

Beware of Maya

The winter storm The Weather Channel has named for the Hindi word for "illusion" is no illusion, it's the real thing.  It's bringing snow, ice and rain to my area tomorrow after having wreaked havoc elsewhere, and even though the ice my area is expected to get is more likely to be sleet - rain that freezes in midair - than rain that freezes the moment it comes into contact with whatever it touches, like tree limbs and power lines, it's still going to be a nasty storm for us.  So, even though it won't be a bona fide ice storm, a 49th power outage for my block, counting from November 2009, can't be ruled out entirely.

I've had an easy winter, and the idea that would remain easy was just an illusion; this is Mother Nature's way of having everything turn out even, especially after it was over sixty degrees Fahrenheit  early last week.

Stick around. I may be back soon.