Murphy's Law of Justice

The Democrats hoped to gain one governorship this year by holding the governor's office in Virginia and taking the governor's office in New Jersey, where Republican lame duck Chris Christie is historically unpopular and where Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Murphy leads his GOP opponent, Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, by double digits in the polls.  But even if they do both, the party's net gain will be zero.  That's because West Virginia Governor James Justice, elected as a Democrat in 2016, just became a Republican.

Justice, the governor a of state dependent on coal mining and a coal magnate himself, said he could no longer serve his constituents as a Democrat when the Democratic Party seems hell-bent on destroying the coal industry (actually, market forces are destroying the coal industry, but let that pass).   His defection to the GOP comes after Donald Trump won West Virginia by two to one over Hillary Clinton.

To those who suggest that this could be a foolish move for Justice if Trump doesn't get West Virginia's economy moving again by 2020, when both men are up for re-election, and if Trump's popularity tanks in West Virginia as it already has nationally, you're the fools.  No Democratic presidential candidate has carried West Virginia since 1996.  Republicans have made serious inroads in state and local politics in the past twenty years.  Senator Joe Manchin, the only West Virginia politician of any relevance with a D after his name, could be in trouble when he runs for re-election next year; Shelley Moore Capito, the state's Republican U.S. Senator, faces no apparent difficulty when she, like Trump and Justice, is up for re-election in 2020.  Even if Trump loses his bid for re-election in a landslide, he'll still carry West Virginia.  Justice knows that.  

(Pointless historical aside I couldn't resist: It was a Republican administration - the first, Lincoln's administration - that brought West Virginia into the Union in the first place.  When Virginia, of which it was a part, seceded in 1861 at the outbreak of the Civil War, the western counties nullified the secession ordinance and remained loyal to the Union.  The Union Army occupied the region almost immediately and helped the locals form the new state of West Virginia, admitted to the Union in 1863.)     

Now it is more crucial than ever for the Democrats to hold the governorship in neighboring Virginia and win back the governorship in New Jersey.  I don't know what's going on with the Virginia campaign, which is for an open gubernatorial seat due to a one-term limit, but in New Jersey, voters are so sour on state politics that they don't think much of either candidate, despite Phil Murphy's huge lead.  And his lead may not be as big as it appears; one of Kim Guadagno's internal polls shows her to be behind by only nine points, meaning that her emphasis on lower property taxes could be paying off.

If the Democrats can't win back the governor's office in New Jersey even after eight years of Christopher James Christie, than the party will likely go full Whig indeed. 

With Opponents Like These . . .

Former Republican senator Mel Martinez of Florida has admitted recently that he would prefer that the Republicans don't win back the Senate this year because, whereas the GOP is expected to take over the House, they would only share blame with the Democrats for an economy that's unlikely to get better any time soon if the Democrats were to keep control of the Senate. If they win everything, Martinez argued, the Republicans would be held accountable for everything. Perhaps that's why Republicans who are in a good position to win key Senate races are either saying stupid things or allowing stupid things they've done to resurface, thus blowing their chances.

Cases in point: West Virginia and Colorado. With a possible victory in his grasp in his bid to win the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat, West Virginia Republican candidate John Raese, vying to become the first Republican senator elected from the Mountain State since the fifties, told ABC News that the minimum wage is an archaic form of government control of the free market and should be abolished.

Joe Manchin, the Democratic governor of West Virginia opposing Raese in the special Senate election, has been given a wonderful gift in this culturally conservative but highly unionized state. Many West Virginia voters have been encouraged to vote for Raese and keep Manchin as governor rather than give President Obama - deeply unpopular in the Mountain State - another vote for his economic agenda. Now they just might want that vote to preserve their jobs and federally guaranteed wages. Rease - who is legally a West Virginia resident but spends much of his time in Florida - is so out of touch he boasts how he made his money the old fashioned way by inheriting it. Well, the wealthy steel and limestone tycoon clearly didn't earn it like Smith Barney. (If the name sounds familiar to some West Virginians, it may be because he ran against Jay Rockefeller for the state's other Senate seat in 1984 but lost to Rockefeller - then the state's governor - despite Ronald Reagan's re-election landslide that year.)

Meanwhile, appointed Democratic senator Michael Bennet in Colorado is fighting for a term in his own right and his political life against Tea Party Republican Ken Buck, and has been slipping badly, but a chapter in Buck's past has come back to haunt him. It appears that when he was the district attorney for Weld County in 2005, Buck refused to look into an allegation of rape because the woman who made the claim did not have proof beyond a reasonable doubt He could have stopped there, but the woman, it turns out, secretly taped a meeting with Buck in which he explained another reason for not pursuing the case. "It appears to me," Buck said, "that you invited him over to have sex with him."

This is redolent of Jeremiah Denton, the one-term Republican senator from Alabama in the 1980s, who objected to prosecuting a man accused of raping his wife because when women get married, they have to expect they're going to get a little sex. In fact, it's just plain redolent. Buck is known for his misogynistic attitude; he once said he'd make a better candidate than his female competitor for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination because he didn't "wear high heels."

Buck leads Bennet by five points overall but trails badly among women. I understand that Michelle Obama is going to campaign for Democrats to help get out the women's vote. She should go to Colorado. She doesn't even have to mention the rape controversy. She just has to go there.

Plan B

The Republicans think they might have an opportunity to win control of the Senate by picking up two Democratic seats - neither of which should ever have been in play. One is a seat the Democrats were expected to hold easily. The other is a seat that is only up for election through because a twist of fate and bad timing.

As noted here yesterday, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is ahead of his Republican opponent for the U.S. Senate, noted drug-pushing violence peddler Linda McMahon, by only three percentage points. Factoring in other polls and computing the averages makes the situation look better for Blumenthal - but not much better. How did this happen? Conventional wisdom suggests that Blumenthal was been hobbled by his misstatements about his Vietnam-era military service. But Blumenthal actually survived that; most Connecticut voters accepted his explanation. (As I noted, it was clear to anyone paying attention that he was speaking in general terms about his and other people's military service in the Vietnam era.) What's hobbling him is a twofold problem. One, McMahon is outspending him and outshining him; she has more money to invest in her campaign and you see her more often in TV ads. Blumenthal is practically a nonentity on television. Two, he's connected with the Democrats and the status quo at a time when many voters in Connecticut and elsewhere in the nation are not so much infatuated with either. One thing about the McMahon campaign that appears to be resonating with voters is that career politicians like Blumenthal are part of the problem and that outsiders have new ideas.

Yes, but a drug-pushing violence peddler? A woman who makes her living having "wrestlers" pretend to bludgeon each other within inches of their lives?

If Blumenthal had deliberately misled voters about his Vietnam-era record, his war stories would be more believable than Linda McMahon's events.

Since Connecticut is regarded as a preppie state, Linda McMahon has high negatives among its voters. But Blumenthal hasn't been much of a candidate; he's almost Martha Coakley (who?) in a suit and tie. He needs to get it in gear.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Robert Byrd's seat ended up open to a special election because Byrd died a week before holding such an election would not have been necessary under West Virginia law; an appointed senator would have been able to fill out the entire term. Governor Joe Manchin could have avoided calling a special election on a technicality. See my post from June 28, 2010 explaining it in detail.) Manchin preferred to appoint an interim senator, call a special election, and announced his candidacy for the seat. It was a risk, but one Manchin was willing to take. An election was in fact warranted, and Manchin, who wants the seat, would run for it in a fair and open contest that he expected to win due to his popularity as governor.

But, as reported last week, Republican John Raese has made it a race, running strongly against Manchin. Manchin is still popular, but many West Virginians disapprove of President Obama and his policies and would prefer not to reward him with a senator that would keep the Democrats in control of the Senate. And, by voting for Raese, they can keep the popular Manchin as governor through early 2013.

Manchin hasn't lost yet, though, and he's stepped up his campaign by highlighting his differences with Obama to demonstrate his Independence. (It's a shame that a U.S. Senate candidate has to distance himself from his President, but that's the Democratic party for you.) Plus, there's the problem of Raese's official residence. He's legally a West Viriginia resident but he lives most of the time in Florida. Sounds like someone who likes to have it both ways, if you ask me.

What's my prediction? My gut tells me that Blumenthal will pull through in Connecticut - and he would have been far better off if he'd read my blog and taken my advice on a statewide bus tour. How hard would it be to tour a state of four million people sixty miles wide and ninety miles across? As for West Virginia, I have no idea how that's going to turn out. My knowledge of the state is restricted to a John Denver song and a visit to Harpers Ferry. I wouldn't advice Manchin to take a bus tour, though; the terrain will do a number on the transmission. I would, however, advise him to go to mountains that have had their tops blown off by greedy coal companies to show folks the kind of environmental policies Raese would support as a senator.

The GOP's Plan B to take over the Senate may be blunted elsewhere, though. In Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul is suddenly facing a late surge from Democrat Jack Conway. In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet has come out stronger against Tea Party Republican Ken Buck. These were seats Republicans were favored to win not too long ago. Polls now show the Democrats running stronger overall in the congressional midterm elections, in both houses. Can the GOP tide by stemmed if not stopped? I hope so.

The Raese Is On

If Robert Byrd had died a week later than he did, I would not be posting this blog entry.

When Byrd died a week before July 3 - the threshold date to avoid a special election to decide who would complete his term, expires on January 3, 2013 - Governor Joseph Manchin could have appointed a permanent replacement for Byrd to serve out the remainder of the term under a technicality, but he appointed an interim senator - Carte Goodwin - and chose to ran for the seat himself. He led Republican John Raese by five to seven points. Now, six weeks before the election, he's behind Raese by three points.

Statistically, that may be unimportant. But Rease has pushed a hard campaign against Manchin by tying him to President Obama, who's as popular in the Mountain State as downhill skiing in Kansas. Manchin may still have a shot, as he is a conservative Democrat with the backing of the Chamber of Commerce. But this latest poll result - along with incumbent Wisconsin Democratic senator Russell Feingold slipping behind Republican challenger Ron Johnson by a wide margin - has late Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com to promise a new Senate election forecast that promises "a lot to chew on." I think the forecast is going to make me choke.

Manchin is still a popular governor. But the desire of West Virginians to see more Republicans in Congress just might lead the state to elect a Republican senator for the first time since since Elvis first appeared on "The Ed Sullivan Show." (Manchin will still be governor if he loses.)

This Republican campaign to take over the Senate may come down to one seat. Byrd's old seat just may be it.

The Byrd Has Flown

Nothing changes political equations like an unexpected event, or even a death that's not entirely unexpected, as is the case with Robert Byrd, who died this morning at 92. Byrd, a Democratic senator from West Virginia and a former Democratic caucus leader in the Senate, was the longest-serving U.S. Senator in history.

For now, the loss of Byrd is unlikely to create any change in the number of Democratic senators. West Virginia's Democratic governor, Joe Manchin, will likely name a replacement after the Independence Day holiday. West Virginia law allows an appointed U.S. Senator to fill an unexpired term without the benefit of a special election so long as there are two years and six months or less remaining in the term. Byrd's death technically leaves the unexpired term a few days longer than that, but after Saturday that will be academic . . . except for Republicans, to be sure. So right now, it's unclear whether a special election will be called, even as Manchin waits to name a replacement. Because what if he does wait until after Saturday?

Byrd's death changes the political equation in Washington for reasons of seniority. Having served since January 1959, Byrd had plenty of seniority, but the loss of Byrd will now likely shift the balance of power within the Senate Democratic caucus a bit. And West Virginia is likely to feel Byrd's loss acutely, as he was instrumental in getting gobs of federal money directed to his state. (He'd already surrendered his chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee this past November.)

Byrd was also known for his courtly adherence to Senate debating rules and his vigorous defense of the U.S. Constitution. A firm believer in the separation of powers, he opposed efforts to give the President line-item veto power with appropriations bills, claiming it gave the executive too much power. He was the Senate Democratic leader from 1977 to 1989, serving as minority leader from 1981 to 1987.

West Virginia hasn't voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1996 but votes Democratic more often in state and local elections.

West Virginia Mining Disaster: The Last Chapter

The rescue team that finally made it into the coal mine in West Virginia where an explosion took place last week turned into a recovery team, as the remaining miners trapped in the shaft were found dead, bringing the final toll to 29 killed.

With that, the media have apparently moved on to other things, such as the call to arms by the participants of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference and Tiger Woods's loss at the Masters. I've long since given up on the idea that anything can be done about preventing future Montcoal-type disaster, as the press corps never follow up on such stories, the Democratic party is too wimpy to press the issue, and the highest-rated political commentators are right-wingers.

But ask yourself - how many more workers have to be injured or die on the job before American labor finally gets a fair shake after forty years of being under siege?

Mine Furor

There may be many more miners trapped in that West Virginia coal mine where an underground explosion took place on Monday, but no one can get in and rescue them. Though the company that owns the mine (Massey Energy) has drilled holes over it to ventilate it and release harmful gases to make a rescue possible, a rescue attempt had to be aborted because the gases were still too dangerous.

Meanwhile, families in the small mining town of Montcoal are still waiting to see if their loved ones are alive. They might managed to get into an airtight shelter where a four-day supply of food, water and air, and time is running out.

Massey has been getting away with treating its workers as expendable for far too long, and now many more miners may die as a result - more in the first four months of 2010 in this one mine than in all of 2009. And if federal enforcement of mining regulations remain gutted thanks to the pro-business, anti-labor attitude of many in Washington, Massey could literally get away with murder.

I'm getting really angry now. I can't believe any of this.

Blood For Coal

The mining disaster in West Virginia that took place in West Virginia yesterday didn't have to happen. Twenty-five miners died in an explosion caused by the release of dangerous gases was a disaster in the making nonetheless, as Massey, the company that owned this mine south of Charleston, had been cited for safety violations in the past fifteen years totalling two million dollars. When Massey wasn't challenging these fines in court, they happily paid them knowing it would have cost more to actually comply with safety regulations. More are still trapped inside.

Thanks to federal legislation and strong unions, many coal mines have quite commendable safety records and treat their employees as valuable team members, but several others have pretty much done as they please, ignoring workers' safety in the interest of maximizing their profits. Today's coal mines aren't about going right under the land surface and digging out lumps of coal in the mine walls. Much of the coal is father below ground - it's of inferior quality - and it's more dangerous to get to. Reform of the coal mining industry actually brought mine deaths in 2009 to a record low since mine safety legislation was passed in 1977, with only 34 fatalities. Yesterday's explosion caused 25 deaths alone, and it's only April.

Hopefully, this tragedy will encourage a tougher enforcement of federal mine laws, which had lagged in the Bush years. But coal companies still hae a lot of political influence in many states dependent on mining.