Plan B

The Republicans think they might have an opportunity to win control of the Senate by picking up two Democratic seats - neither of which should ever have been in play. One is a seat the Democrats were expected to hold easily. The other is a seat that is only up for election through because a twist of fate and bad timing.

As noted here yesterday, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is ahead of his Republican opponent for the U.S. Senate, noted drug-pushing violence peddler Linda McMahon, by only three percentage points. Factoring in other polls and computing the averages makes the situation look better for Blumenthal - but not much better. How did this happen? Conventional wisdom suggests that Blumenthal was been hobbled by his misstatements about his Vietnam-era military service. But Blumenthal actually survived that; most Connecticut voters accepted his explanation. (As I noted, it was clear to anyone paying attention that he was speaking in general terms about his and other people's military service in the Vietnam era.) What's hobbling him is a twofold problem. One, McMahon is outspending him and outshining him; she has more money to invest in her campaign and you see her more often in TV ads. Blumenthal is practically a nonentity on television. Two, he's connected with the Democrats and the status quo at a time when many voters in Connecticut and elsewhere in the nation are not so much infatuated with either. One thing about the McMahon campaign that appears to be resonating with voters is that career politicians like Blumenthal are part of the problem and that outsiders have new ideas.

Yes, but a drug-pushing violence peddler? A woman who makes her living having "wrestlers" pretend to bludgeon each other within inches of their lives?

If Blumenthal had deliberately misled voters about his Vietnam-era record, his war stories would be more believable than Linda McMahon's events.

Since Connecticut is regarded as a preppie state, Linda McMahon has high negatives among its voters. But Blumenthal hasn't been much of a candidate; he's almost Martha Coakley (who?) in a suit and tie. He needs to get it in gear.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Robert Byrd's seat ended up open to a special election because Byrd died a week before holding such an election would not have been necessary under West Virginia law; an appointed senator would have been able to fill out the entire term. Governor Joe Manchin could have avoided calling a special election on a technicality. See my post from June 28, 2010 explaining it in detail.) Manchin preferred to appoint an interim senator, call a special election, and announced his candidacy for the seat. It was a risk, but one Manchin was willing to take. An election was in fact warranted, and Manchin, who wants the seat, would run for it in a fair and open contest that he expected to win due to his popularity as governor.

But, as reported last week, Republican John Raese has made it a race, running strongly against Manchin. Manchin is still popular, but many West Virginians disapprove of President Obama and his policies and would prefer not to reward him with a senator that would keep the Democrats in control of the Senate. And, by voting for Raese, they can keep the popular Manchin as governor through early 2013.

Manchin hasn't lost yet, though, and he's stepped up his campaign by highlighting his differences with Obama to demonstrate his Independence. (It's a shame that a U.S. Senate candidate has to distance himself from his President, but that's the Democratic party for you.) Plus, there's the problem of Raese's official residence. He's legally a West Viriginia resident but he lives most of the time in Florida. Sounds like someone who likes to have it both ways, if you ask me.

What's my prediction? My gut tells me that Blumenthal will pull through in Connecticut - and he would have been far better off if he'd read my blog and taken my advice on a statewide bus tour. How hard would it be to tour a state of four million people sixty miles wide and ninety miles across? As for West Virginia, I have no idea how that's going to turn out. My knowledge of the state is restricted to a John Denver song and a visit to Harpers Ferry. I wouldn't advice Manchin to take a bus tour, though; the terrain will do a number on the transmission. I would, however, advise him to go to mountains that have had their tops blown off by greedy coal companies to show folks the kind of environmental policies Raese would support as a senator.

The GOP's Plan B to take over the Senate may be blunted elsewhere, though. In Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul is suddenly facing a late surge from Democrat Jack Conway. In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet has come out stronger against Tea Party Republican Ken Buck. These were seats Republicans were favored to win not too long ago. Polls now show the Democrats running stronger overall in the congressional midterm elections, in both houses. Can the GOP tide by stemmed if not stopped? I hope so.