The Raese Is On

If Robert Byrd had died a week later than he did, I would not be posting this blog entry.

When Byrd died a week before July 3 - the threshold date to avoid a special election to decide who would complete his term, expires on January 3, 2013 - Governor Joseph Manchin could have appointed a permanent replacement for Byrd to serve out the remainder of the term under a technicality, but he appointed an interim senator - Carte Goodwin - and chose to ran for the seat himself. He led Republican John Raese by five to seven points. Now, six weeks before the election, he's behind Raese by three points.

Statistically, that may be unimportant. But Rease has pushed a hard campaign against Manchin by tying him to President Obama, who's as popular in the Mountain State as downhill skiing in Kansas. Manchin may still have a shot, as he is a conservative Democrat with the backing of the Chamber of Commerce. But this latest poll result - along with incumbent Wisconsin Democratic senator Russell Feingold slipping behind Republican challenger Ron Johnson by a wide margin - has late Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com to promise a new Senate election forecast that promises "a lot to chew on." I think the forecast is going to make me choke.

Manchin is still a popular governor. But the desire of West Virginians to see more Republicans in Congress just might lead the state to elect a Republican senator for the first time since since Elvis first appeared on "The Ed Sullivan Show." (Manchin will still be governor if he loses.)

This Republican campaign to take over the Senate may come down to one seat. Byrd's old seat just may be it.