Cowboy Movie

Ever see one of those old-time Westerns, particularly the ones from the silent film era?  They all seem to go like this: Cowboy Bill and Cowboy Bob get in a fight, they punch and wrestle and work their way to the edge of a cliff, and then Cowboy Bob pins Cowboy Bill down and gets his hands around his throat.  He's about to choke Bill with his bare hands.  Then, Bill feels a surge of energy, overpowers Bob, and punches   him, causing Bob to stumble over the edge of the cliff to his inevitable and rather painful death.

I bring up this sort-of-imaginary Western as a parable for the two American political parties.  Cowboy Bob is the Democratic Party and Cowboy Bill is the Republican Party.  Like Cowboy Bill, the GOP had been on the verge of death only to get a surge of energy and then be in a position to push the Democrats over the abyss.

That's the script the two parties have been playing out since President Obama took office in January 2009.  The Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress at the start of Obama's term, and the Republicans were heading toward becoming a nonentity, remaining a mostly white party in an increasingly multiracial society.  Then the Tea Party exploded on the scene and gave the Republicans enough energy to get out of being down for the count.  Then the Supreme Court handed down the Citizens United decision that allowed Republicans to raise so much campaign money that the Democrats couldn't possibly compete with them on an even playing field.  In short order, the Republicans won back the House of Representatives in 2010 and came within striking distance of taking over the Senate, but staggered terms prevented that.  Since gaining power in the states, though, the GOP has passed numerous voter suppression laws and diminished the public workers' unions, the last place Democrats can count on campaign financing in a big way. Now, with the House seats reapportioned to favor Republican states and new House district maps drawn to favor Republican voters, and with the chances of the Democrats holding on to the Senate numerically difficult if not impossible, the Republicans are poised to take over Presidency and everything else and keep it all until . . . the end of time.  Which, if a Romney administration invades Iran, could be as soon as February.

Go down, Cowboy Bob, sooner or later we all have to die . . .. 

It's gong to take a real Hollywood ending for the Democrats to get out of this.  President Obama might eke out a victory in November - Nate Silver at the New York Times'  FiveThirtyEight blog gives him a good chance - and they may hold off a GOP takeover of the Senate, possibly with fifty Democratic senators and Joe Biden's vote if Obama slides by - but the Republicans, despite their general unpopularity and overall loathsomeness, may be too daunting to hold back from the gates for long.

I am so glad I'm not paying attention to the convention . . ..