Forgetting Elaine Marshall

At the beginning of the year, political pundits suggested that while 2010 would be a tough year for Democrats in which they were expected to lose seats in Congress due to the economy and the fact that the party not holding the White House does better in midterm elections, all incumbents regardless of party affiliation would have a tough time this year. Now these same pundits are suggesting that Republican incumbents are in much better shape because of all the momentum on their side. No one has come out and said so, but the punditocracy seems to expect a year like 1994, in which the Republicans not only took over the House but took over the Senate with every incumbent Republican senator being re-elected and every open seat going Republican, with two incumbent Democrats going down to defeat.

And so, it must seem silly to cover Senate races with incumbent Republicans this year. Maybe that's why you haven't heard much of this year's U.S. Senate campaign in North Carolina - except here on this blog, of course.

You remember North Carolina, a state with an incumbent Republican senator - Richard Burr - so well favored that Chuck Todd at MSNBC couldn't be bothered to talk a lot about it? You probably haven't heard all that much about the Democratic challenger, Elaine Marshall. She is North Carolina's Secretary of State, and has a distinguished record of accomplishment including the recovery of $340 million from Wall Street banks. Well, I don't mean to laugh at Chuck Todd - HA HA HA HA HA HA HA - but despite national disinterest in this race, she's moved up to two points behind Burr in one poll and moved ahead, also by two points, in a poll taken by WWAY-TV in Wilimington.

Burr is so unpopular in the Tar Heel State and is so connected with politics as usual in Washington he could lose his election running unopposed. Fortunately for him, though, he has a Democratic opponent whom he can define as too radical and too out of the mainstream for this very conservative state. Not if Elaine Marshall defines herself first. She doesn't have as much money, but she has a spirited group of progressive backers who are willing to contribute to and work for her campaign. Marshall also has free media at her disposal, and if she does enough interviews and hits the right notes, she can overcome Burr's financial advantage very easily. Most importantly, she, as a progressive, gives voters reasons to vote for her, not merely against Burr. This is how she defeated a White House-backed candidate for the Democratic Senate nomination, and this is why she is in a better position to win in North Carolina than Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, who's down by twenty points in her race.

Most pundits made note of Bill Halter's loss to Lincoln in the Arkansas Senate primary runoff and decided that it's not such a good idea for progressives to cast their lots with and spend their time and money on candidates not backed by the Democratic establishment. The likeliest reason they ignored Marshall's Senate primary runoff victory in North Carolina is because, while she defeated White House-supported candidate Cal Cunningham, Cunningham wasn't an incumbent senator like Blanche Lincoln is, and Marshall still has to defeat Burr. (And they act as if Joe Sestak's Senate primary victory in Pennsylvania, where he took out incumbent Democratic senator Arlen Specter, never happened.) But the passion is clearly on Marshall's side in North Carolina. She's surging in the polls, and it looks like a possible pickup that could offset Democratic losses elsewhere (like Arkansas). If I were Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey - who currently chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee - this year, I'd be getting ready to pout more money into this race. It looks competitive now.

Only solid support from Menendez's committee and grass-roots Democrats and progressives can help Elaine Marshall. If she wins, no one will forget about her then.