Primary Election Fallout: May 2010

Many pundits have found an anti-incumbent trend in the voting in yesterday's primaries for U.S. Senate seats. Arlen Specter, who has served five terms as a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, was denied the opportunity to seek a sixth term as a Democrat, the former Republican losing to Delaware County congressman Joe Sestak. Meanwhile, the strong showing of Senate candidate D.C. Morrison in Arkansas forced Senator Blanche Lincoln in a runoff with Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter scheduled for June 8. Lincoln got the most votes but was denied a majority. In Kentucky, establishment Republican Senate candidate Trey Grayson was defeated by eye surgeon Rand Paul, son of Texas congressman Ron Paul and a darling of the Tea Party movement. Neither President Obama nor Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell have been able to get any of their chosen candidates elected or re-nominated recently.

The mainstream media are likely to focus on the strength of the Tea Party movement in getting one of their own nominated to run for Senate, and they are already saying that Democrats are in trouble because of the anti-incumbent sentiment, but they're missing a lot if they focus on the Tea Party exclusively. More Democrats voted in Kentucky's Democratic Senate primary than in the Republican primary than Republicans in the Republican primary, which stands to help Jack Conway, the Democratic nominee. Defeated Democratic candidate Dan Mongiardo, who came very close to winning, demanded a recount between himself Conway, but changed his mind and conceded. Though Rand Paul believes he can win in a state where Obama is unpopular, some of his proposals - like repealing civil rights laws and the Americans With Disabilities Act - might make him, uh, hard to relate to. The success of Joe Sestak suggests that people want a candidate far more progressive than the Democratic establishment has offered. Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Lincoln is running scared against a populist upstart who has support from unions, and this is in a right-to-work state.

The anti-incumbent trend is likely to snag at least as many Republicans as Democrats. Republican senator Richard Burr of North Carolina is vulnerable, for example. and if Democrats are associate with the sluggish economy and bound to fail, how does that explain Democrat Mark Critz's success in a special election, winning the House seat of the late John Murtha in a Pennsylvania congressional district carried by John McCain in the 2008 presidential election?

Ed Schultz believes that liberal Democrats will be energized by the likes of Sestak and possibly Halter on their respective state ballots in November, and this could only help elect more progressives and help Obama pass his agenda. It's hard to argue with that analysis, especially given the unexpected enthusiasm by progressives in yesterday's voting.

A lot happened last night that still needs to be analyzed and explained. Many are arguing what was the biggest surprise from yesterday's results was.

I would say the biggest surprise was that a man named Mongiardo could make such a strong showing in a state like Kentucky. :-D