Lee Ashore?

Hurricane Lee is churning in the Atlantic Ocean, and it's already a major hurricane.  The National Hurricane Center might have to add a sixth category to the Saffir-Simpson scale to gauge the strength of this one.   

The question is whether it will remain out to sea or strike land - and if it does strike land, where.  Most of the forecast projections have kept it away from the greater New York area, but several of them have brought it into Maine or Atlantic Canada.

These are the ensemble maps as of yesterday, September 8.  The GEFS is above and the GEPS is below.  Both keep the storm away from the American East Coast and one takes it into the Canadian Maritimes.  Both ensembles have Lee reaching the 40th parallel north in about a week.

These are merely projections, though, not forecasts, and that means the trajectory of the storm could change - and for the worse - for millions of people in the time before it gets as far north as the 40th parallel.  I guarantee that a lot of folks - myself included - are going to be nervous for the next several days. 

Here Comes Ian

I wish I were talking about Anderson or Gillian, but no, this isn't a post about seventies classic rock.  It's about the first hurricane -possibly a major hurricane - of the season to hit the mainland United States.  

Most forecasters expect this new storm called Ian to hit the Tampa Bay area in Florida (thought the GFS keeps projecting it go hit Mobile, Alabama), Where it goes next is unclear, but for now most computer projections show it going inland and becoming a garden-variety rainfall of areas farther north.  Some projections, however, show it going up the coast a as full-fledged storm that could wreck havoc on all coastal metropolitan areas north of the 36'30" parallel line, from Norfolk on up.

It could very well be another meteorologically troublesome October this year.

Delta Dawning

Hurricane Delta, the fourth tropical cyclone named for a Greek letter and the twenty-fifth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, has approached major-hurricane status and is lashing the Yucatan Peninsula before it's expected to close in on the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Delta is going to hit the delta.

The storm is likely going to do a number on New Orleans and affect a good deal of Mississippi before becoming a depression and moving northeast, its remnants possibly affecting New Jersey or Pennsylvania by Columbus Day.  Right now, as I type, there are no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin that could form a tropical system, so the mid-October hurricane that the almanacs predicted for the Northeast is not going to happen.  That doesn't mean that there won't be tropical activity later.

This all happens as Sir David Attenborough is promoting a new film saying how the earth is living on borrowed time due to climate change.  Maybe we should listen to him.

The Picture of Dorian

This is it.

And it's a hell of a storm. It is expected to approach the eastern coast of Florida sometime after the Labor Day holiday as a Category 4 hurricane. While the likeliest scenario for Dorian is that it makes landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula, there are computer projections suggesting that it might stop short of landfall and hug the coast as it turns north.  

Whatever happens in Florida, though, may only be the first chapter in this story.  If Dorian were to stay off shore as it moves north, it could have a serious impact on Georgia and the Carolinas.  And depending how the upper winds steer it, it could affect areas farther north than that.

I'll come out and say it - Dorian could strengthen over the ocean and possibly affect the greater New York area, where I live, this time next week!  Fortunately, the chances of that remain low . . . for now.

All that said, It's too early to tell where it ultimately goes until it makes landfall - or doesn't make landfall - in Florida.  And even though the storm may seem to stay the same, its picture gets stronger!