Nikki Nullified

South Carolina Republicans have fallen out of love with their former governor, Nikki Haley.

She lost the state's Republican primary to Donald Trump by twenty percentage points.  She didn't lose by as much as the polls had predicted, and some pundits will find some way to spin it as being a revealing look at Trump's disadvantages and weaknesses in a general-election matchup with Joe Biden, but it's still a crushing loss.  The one-on-one knock-out, drag-down fight that people had been hoping for between Trump and an anti-Trump has finally happened, but it's Haley who is getting knocked out and dragged down.

This is a loss that Haley richly deserves.  Some pundits have actually applauded her for finding her voice and lashing out at Trump at long last, but the truth of the matter is that she's merely changing her message to appeal to the anti-Trump faction in the GOP after treating Trump with kid gloves didn't work out.  But then bashing Trump for his numerous deficiencies was something Chris Christie had done in his 2024 presidential campaign since day one, and he didn't get any credit for finding his voice. What he got was an early exit from the campaign when he tried to gain traction but ended up in traction.  Haley only bashes Trump with the knowledge that she has nothing left to lose, so why not go full tilt boogie in being the anti-Trump when no one gives a twit?

But I'll be happy to see her continue her campaign long enough to drive Trump crazy. 😉 

Haley vows to stay in the presidential campaign for as long as she has the money.  She could theoretically stay until the bitter end.  But Chris Christie knows better than to plan to vote for Haley in the last-in-the-nation New Jersey presidential primary in June, because Trump will have long before won all the delegates needed for the Republican presidential nomination.  

Biden Blowout

One of the old lions of the Democratic Party just stormed into March like one.  Joe Biden won a decisive victory in South Carolina primary.

He came close to winning a majority of the popular vote, something Tom Steyer - who has since withdrawn as a presidential candidate - likely prevented him from doing after spending money on TV ads in the state like a working stiff who drank a lot of take-home pay (is that a great Billy Joel lyric, or what?).  But a win is a win, and this was a big win for Uncle Joe.  As of this writing, Biden has won for delegates in South Carolina for every one delegate Bernie Sanders - who came in a distant second at 28 percentage points behind - picked up, 28 to 7.  Biden's speech about restoring decency and goodness to America encapsulated what this campaign is and should be about, as Donald Trump represents the exact opposite.

U.S. Representative James Clyburn (above, with Biden) introduced Biden at the victory party for the former Vice President as a good man and as a man one can trust. Biden showed how much he earned that trust by urging people to consider what's at stake in November and reaffirming his commitment to the very virtues of America that Trump has undermined.  Clyburn underlined all that in his introduction of the former Vice President by reminding people that only a good nation can be a great nation.  Biden's speech got him some favorable free media that could compensate for his lack of money, for now at least, and it could help him in key Super Tuesday contests coming up this week.

The biggest loser in South Carolina was probably Donald Trump, who appeared in the state in a really the day before the primary to troll the candidates and tried to get Republicans to vote in the open primary for Sanders to help the candidate he thinks he defeat the most handily (didn't work, did it?), and he made himself look even more foolish than usual.  Biden still has his work cut out for him  He has to face Sanders in upcoming primaries and caucuses and also has to deal with the formidable Michael Bloomberg for dominance of the center-left Democratic faction.  But right now, things are looking up for him.  And it makes sense that one of the greatest soul records ever served as the theme music at Biden's South Carolina victory celebration.       

With a Soulful, Bounding Leap . . .

The most recent polls suggest that Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina and win big. Any Democrats nervous about the possibility of Bernie Sanders as the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee and are secretly rooting for Biden but don't want to admit it to avoid being seen as uncool should feel comforted by that.  Because the national polls suggest that, despite the Ukraine flap, Biden could still beat Trump in November like a drum.

Biden hopes to use this Leap Day contest as a springboard for the rest of the 2020 campaign, but problem is that, even if Biden wins the South Carolina primary today, he only has three days to capitalize on his victory for the Super Tuesday contests, and given Sanders' huge support in key states like California, Biden might not get very many delegates out of his momentum.  Even worse, there are still six other candidates for the Democratic residential nomination who show no sign of withdrawing or have no reason to withdraw.  Except for Tulsi Gabbard, who, despite her spectacularly vacant candidacy, is not going to withdraw either.

Tom Steyer may have gotten out by now if he weren't doing so well in South Carolina himself.  Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have pockets of support to sustain them.  Elizabeth Warren is hell-bent on staying in, and Michael Bloomberg has vowed to stay in until "the bitter end."  That is, New Jersey.  The Garden State's last-in-the-nation primary on June 2 may be the Democrats' last chance to avoid a brokered convention, as Super Tuesday will likely resolve nothing.  Bloomberg has the money but not the momentum; after South Carolina, Biden may have the momentum, but he doesn't have the money.  Sanders has both, but the jury is still out whether he can win in November; analysis of his chances in the media is as divided as Americans' political opinions.

Thus, even if one or two candidates do withdraw after Tuesday's fourteen primaries and caucuses, the Democratic presidential nomination campaign will still be as confused as ever.  Thank goodness that, like Leap Day, this ritual only happens once every four years.    

Biden His Time Again

I gotta tell ya, I thought Joe Biden was left for dead on the side of the road to the White House, and I was actually looking very hard at Michael Bloomberg for awhile, but the former Vice President seems to be picking up momentum at just the time he needs it.

South Carolina congressman James Clyburn, the highest-ranking black member of the House of Representatives, endorsed Biden publicly yesterday, and after struggling in the polls against Bernie Sanders and the insufferable Tom Steyer in the Palmetto State, Biden found himself leading in the South Carolina primary in a new Clemson University poll by eighteen points.  Despite a few gaffes in Tuesday's debate that could only be called Bidenesque - he grossly overstated the number of Americans killed since 2007 as a result of gun violence by tens of millions - he came across as confident, knowledgeable, and strong.  He demonstrated the indignation and outrage against the Trump administration that led him to campaign for the Presidency in 2020 in the first place.  If he wins big in South Carolina that could change everything about the 2020 Democratic presidential primary campaign.  If he loses big in South Carolina, that too could change everything about the 2020 Democratic presidential primary campaign.

Bloomberg did better in the debate, and he regained some of his footing in my opinion, but his mere existence continues to irk Elizabeth Warren and distracts from some of the more shocking statements made about Fidel Castro and the Nicaraguan Sandinistas coming from Bernie Sanders.  Sanders is proving to be something of a loose cannon that could fire a volley into the Democrats' own chances of winning the Presidency in November, and either Biden or Bloomberg will likely be in a better than position going against Sanders than Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar after Super Tuesday on March 3 depending on what happens on this rare Leap Day primary in South Carolina.  After seeing this debate, I feel a little better about the Democrats' chances of unseating Trump.

Until I see that the the Republican National Committee has twenty dollars for every one dollar the Democratic National Committee has.  That's where Bloomberg's money will come in handy, whether he's the party's presidential nominee of not.         

Joe Biden's Last Hope

Imagine the headlines in the Sunday papers the day after the South Carolina primary on February 29:

BIDEN LEAPS BACK TO FRONT RUNNER STATUS  

LEAP DAY WIN HELPS BIDEN LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY 

AFTER 2/29 WIN IN SC, BIDEN LEAPS INTO MARCH LIKE A LION

Well, I'm sure that's what Biden would like to see.  And the former Vice President can still pull it off.  He still has the lead in the polls, and he's fighting like hell in South Carolina.  But even with that, it may not be enough.  Not only is Tom Steyer - who undistinguished himself in Iowa by winning a mere 0.3 percent, half of what Martin O'Malley got in 2016 - gaining in the South Carolina polls, so is Bernie Sanders.  One projection even has Sanders winning.

A solid performance in the Nevada caucuses on February 22 might help Biden gain traction in time for the South Carolina primary, but he faces two obstacles.  One is that Sanders is much better organized there despite opposition to his single-payer health care proposal due to the generous health benefits offered by the culinary worker's union, a big force in Nevada politics thanks to the hospitality business in Las Vegas and Reno.  Another is that the culinary union, whose support Biden was counting on to give him a boost in the Silver State, has decided not to endorse anyone.  Sort of reminds me of the "Muppet Show" episode parodying awards shows in which Miss Piggy is in both sketches up for Best Muppet Sketch and knows she can't lose . . . until the judges decide not to give out the award.  Biden must be fuming in private about losing his chance to grab a major endorsement and get some desperately needed positive media attention.

Biden doesn't seem to be doing enough to shore up his support in South Carolina, especially among black voters, and his palmetto firewall is showing cracks and splits.  He still has a chance to turn things around, but the feeble, lackadaisical nature of his campaign in recent weeks suggest that he's not up to the task.  He might have to withdraw as a candidate on March 1 . . . and the Democrats could leap into chaos in time for Super Tuesday.

Who Won?!?

Newt won the South Carolina primary?

This cancels out what I said about him a week and a half ago.

And Santorum actually won the Iowa caucuses?

This cancels out everything I've said about Mitt Romney since the year began.

Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.