With a Soulful, Bounding Leap . . .

The most recent polls suggest that Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina and win big. Any Democrats nervous about the possibility of Bernie Sanders as the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee and are secretly rooting for Biden but don't want to admit it to avoid being seen as uncool should feel comforted by that.  Because the national polls suggest that, despite the Ukraine flap, Biden could still beat Trump in November like a drum.

Biden hopes to use this Leap Day contest as a springboard for the rest of the 2020 campaign, but problem is that, even if Biden wins the South Carolina primary today, he only has three days to capitalize on his victory for the Super Tuesday contests, and given Sanders' huge support in key states like California, Biden might not get very many delegates out of his momentum.  Even worse, there are still six other candidates for the Democratic residential nomination who show no sign of withdrawing or have no reason to withdraw.  Except for Tulsi Gabbard, who, despite her spectacularly vacant candidacy, is not going to withdraw either.

Tom Steyer may have gotten out by now if he weren't doing so well in South Carolina himself.  Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have pockets of support to sustain them.  Elizabeth Warren is hell-bent on staying in, and Michael Bloomberg has vowed to stay in until "the bitter end."  That is, New Jersey.  The Garden State's last-in-the-nation primary on June 2 may be the Democrats' last chance to avoid a brokered convention, as Super Tuesday will likely resolve nothing.  Bloomberg has the money but not the momentum; after South Carolina, Biden may have the momentum, but he doesn't have the money.  Sanders has both, but the jury is still out whether he can win in November; analysis of his chances in the media is as divided as Americans' political opinions.

Thus, even if one or two candidates do withdraw after Tuesday's fourteen primaries and caucuses, the Democratic presidential nomination campaign will still be as confused as ever.  Thank goodness that, like Leap Day, this ritual only happens once every four years.