Murphy's Law of Reassessment

The past week and change has caused me to look at the aftermath of the 2021 elections again, especially the gubernatorial election in New Jersey.

As you may recall, I mildly criticized Governor Phil Murphy for winning by less than the polls indicated he would.  Well, I was apparently too harsh on him, even if professional pundits continue to be.  As of this writing, Murphy has won 51 percent of the vote, and he leads Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by 2.8 percentage points. His vote count has only gone up since last Tuesday.  A clear majority of New Jersey voters obviously want him to have another term. The last time a Democratic governor of New Jersey was re-elected, the top song in the country was "You Light Up My Life."  It was that long ago (1977, for the record).  And also, when you remember that there were four key races this year - this, the New York City mayoral election, the California gubernatorial recall election, and the Virginia gubernatorial election - the Democrats won all but one of them. 

Three out of four ain't bad, but you'd never know that from TV commentators not named Rachel by their mothers or named Maddow by their fathers.  You'd also never know how historic it was that Murphy was the first re-elected Democratic governor since Brendan Byrne (who won re-election the same year that Ed Koch was first elected mayor of New York City - again, 1977 was that long ago).  And so the takeaway is that the Democrats got shellacked, largely on the basis of  Republican wins in local races in New York State that no one cares about nationally and on the fact that the Democrats lost control of the Virginia House of Delegates - never mind that they still control both houses of the New Jersey legislature.

In no way am I suggesting that the Democrats don't have to worry about messaging or responding to voters' concerns in 2022; that's still a big deal. So is the presence of "progressives" who want to take money away from police departments when Eric Adams, the biggest winner in the Democratic Part this year, won the mayor's office in New York City by pledging to defend the police rather than defund them.  (He's an ex-cop.)  But the lashes the Democratic Party took last week were more from a wet noodle than a cat of nine tails.

However, the election in New Jersey is still a concern, because Jack Ciattarelli still won't concede to Murphy, despite being behind him by a larger percentage of the vote than Terry McAuliffe ended up behind Republican Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin in Virginia - and McAuliffe has already conceded.  In no other major election this year has a losing Republican refused to concede, mainly because they lost by a lot.  But by losing by only less than three points, Ciattarelli has remained adamant about waiting it out until the last vote is counted - and then he might ask for an expensive recount.  And Ciattarelli supporters are already making charges of fraud and vote rigging, though the candidate has not endorsed these charges.

I was afraid of this.  The first Republican challenge to the results of an election after President Biden's inauguration is taking place not in California or in New York City but in New Jersey.  New Jersey, a state whose residents are known for their hard-handed, hard-edged belligerence.  We have rappers from Essex County who could scare the hell out of South Bronx rappers, and I'm just talking about the sista rappers.  "The Sopranos" played like a documentary about the state, and in some ways, it is.  The unofficial state motto is an expletive.  Our largest city, Newark, is nicknamed Brick City.  We're so tough, we made a state park out of a rail yard.  And a lot of our bad-asses voted Republican in this election.  So, you can imagine how scared we should be if Ciattarelli supporters descend on Trenton to disrupt Governor Murphy's re-inauguration.

Jack should concede now, if he doesn't want a demonstration in Trenton in January 2022 to make January 6 look like a church social.  This is dangerous. 😱