One Hundred Days

Do you remember what you were doing on April 17 of this year?  Probably watching Andrew Cuomo on the news while staying home due to the pandemic, right?  You may at least remember that it was a Friday.  I ask because we are a hundred days after that date, and we are also a hundred days away from the presidential election, so Election Day, November 3, is no farther in the future than April 17 is in the past.

Joe Biden seems to be in control in the presidential campaign going into these last one hundred days.  But I'm worried.  Trump just hired a crackerjack numbers guy, former Chris Christie aide Bill Stepien, to run his campaign, and his efforts to get Trump to discipline himself and stay on message appear to be working. Trump is doubling down on law and order, and his new TV ads drive the point home like a hammer into a nail, and with just as much subtlety.  And while people are laughing at Trump's boasting of his ability to pass a cognitive test, Trump's recitation of five simple words in a predetermined order is a way of reminding voters that Biden has some trouble doing that. Not enough people seem to believe Biden's explanation that it's a stutter, least of all his most rabid detractors.  Trump supporters?  No - Bernie bros! And they're not completely sold on Uncle Joe either, despite Bernie Sanders' efforts to get them to vote for Biden.

I may be getting a little too anxious.  So far, there's no evidence that Trump's change of style and tone seem to be swaying enough voters to make a difference in the campaign.  While Bill Stepien seems to boast about Trump campaign' swagger and strength to the media, Biden's campaign staffers, led by campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, have been working under the radar as if they're carefully plotting and strategizing out of sight and mind to avoid giving away too much. And they see Trump's campaign moves as clearly as anyone else while moving forward themselves. 

But a lot can still happen.  Even at this point, Biden still hasn't named a vice presidential running mate, which could work for or against him.  A major riot - no doubt one sparked by the Department of Homeland Security - could turn moderate votes against the Black Lives Matter movement and against Biden.  The COVID-19 crisis could ease well enough to improve Trump's standing.   Or, COVID-19 could affect the ballot process.  A natural disaster might alter the course of the campaign.  And a man-made disaster - say,  a classic Biden gaffe - might do the same.  And  Biden's low-key campaign strategy might no longer work as circumstances change.

Keep your fingers crossed day and night, boys and girls.  It's not over yet.  And don't put too much stock in the polls.