Ole Miss

Could Mike Espy be the Doug Jones of 2018?

The former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and former Mississippi congressman is running against incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in a runoff of a special election (think of that, a special election, then a runoff!), and even though women are always excited to see female candidates triumph, this time they'll be mightily embarrassed if Hyde-Smith wins this one.

Hyde-Smith was appointed to fill the unexpired term of Republican Senator Thad Cochran, who resigned in April 2018 due to health reasons. Cochran epitomized the classic Southern gentleman with his cultured drawl, his pinstripe suits, and his courtly manner.  By contrast, Hyde-Smith has no dignified air to her whatsoever; she's crude, obnoxious, and blatantly racist, having made an insensitive remark about lynchings and being slow to apologize for it.  Espy, vying to be the first black U.S. Senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction, is running a campaign based on bringing people together, and he's doing it with the same message and campaign staffers that helped Doug Jones win his special Senate election in Alabama in 2017.     

Right now, the polls favor Hyde-Smith - because, hey, it's Mississippi.  Some pundits who say Espy can win point to the good numbers Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum racked up in their bids to win the governorships of Georgia and Florida, respectively, citing coalitions of blacks and left-of-center whites.  

There are two things wrong with that comparison.  First, Abrams and Gillum lost.  Secondly, while whites are more bipartisan in Georgia and Florida, Mississippi whites are solidly Republican, which has allowed the GOP to win every U.S. Senate election in the state from 1984 on.  If Abrams and Gillum couldn't gain enough white votes to win their respective races, how could Espy do the same in Mississippi?                            

But - and you know I was coming to a "but," and it's a heck of a "but" - Espy has a few things in his favor that can help him pull an upset.  First, Mississippi has the largest black population of any state per capita - 35 percent - which means that Espy would only need one out of four white votes if blacks turn out at high enough numbers.  Second, Espy is running as a moderate, which appeals to white voters - one Mississippi Republican told NBC News he plans to vote for Espy because of the wonderful job he did for his congressional district when Espy represented it in the House.  Thirdly, Hyde-Smith is so awful, she's lost corporate support for her campaign.  Espy is out to do what pundits said Doug Jones couldn't do in Alabama.  Since Alabama and Mississippi are neighbors, lightning, while it may not strike twice in the same place, could strike close enough this time down South.

The special runoff election is tomorrow.