November Surprise

The gubernatorial race in Virginia is so close, although Democrat Ralph Northam seems to have the edge, that no one can call it and Republican Ed Gillespie can still pull victory from the jaws of defeat.  In the New Jersey gubernatorial election,  Phil Murphy appears to be on course to win but Kim Guadagno is still pegging away and could gain enough last-minute momentum to pull an upset.  You scoff at that suggestion? Well, you remember what they said about the ant who tried to fell a rubber tree.     

Up to now, I've been worried about a surprise development that could cost Murphy the election.  At the height of hurricane season, I feared that a storm would strike New Jersey and Governor Chris Christie would put Guadagno in charge of emergency operations and allow her to prove herself as a leader . . . and overtake Murphy in the polls.  No.  Then I feared that Murphy's lieutenant-gubernatorial running mate Sheila Oliver's vote in the state Assembly against a bill meant to deny state contracts to companies that boycott Israel would cost him the extremely important Jewish vote.  Not quite.  Then came his promise to make New Jersey a sanctuary state for undocumented immigrants, which could cost New Jersey in federal aid (you mean we actually get some??)   It's driven up anti-Murphy enthusiasm among Republican voters but not so much for pro-Murphy voters in the immigrant-heavy Democratic base in the state . . . but no, Murphy's poll numbers are still holding.  But anything could happen, given all of the garbage that Guadagno has dumped on him.  I've even been wondering if the October 31 terrorist attack in Lower Manhattan, given the fact that an Uzbek national living in New Jersey (albeit on a legal visa) perpetrated it, would play into Guadagno's naked immigrant-bashing as well as the line that Democrats are soft on terrorism.  

The most gratifying sight of Murphy advocating sanctuary for undocumented immigrants, apart from the fact that it's the right thing to do, is that Murphy could have talked his way out of his hardline stand with the mealy-mouthed language commonly associated with wimpy Democrats and backpedaled on it to avoid offending centrist independents, but instead he doubled down and stood on his principles.  If he wins, his courageous stand for immigrants will hopefully embolden Democrats in other states as the 2018 midterm elections approach.        

I'm still nervous, if only because the last Republican woman to face a Democrat in a New Jersey governor's election, Christine Todd Whitman, upset the conventional wisdom by winning, something Whitman herself has recently made a point of in advocating for Guadagno.  (Except that Whitman was seven points behind Democrat Jim Florio going into the 1993 election, not fourteen points behind like Guadagno is behind Murphy, and Florio was an unpopular incumbent governor - much like Guadagno's boss, Chris Christie.)  But Murphy, who says he has our backs, has Democrats who have his back.  Including this one.

Yes, that's Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland and 2016 presidential candidate, stumping for Phil Murphy on October 29 in Paterson, near where I live.  (I didn't learn about it until after the fact, of course.)  It was one of four stops O'Malley made in New Jersey on that rainy day.  He didn't attract the number of people that Hillary Clinton might (okay, would), but with each person he meets and interacts with while campaigning for Democratic candidates nationwide, he makes a presidential run in 2020 more doable . . . one voter at a time.

I recall that ant and the rubber tree again . .  .