Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Or maybe it is . . .

Democrats in Wisconsin managed to pick off two Republican state senators in Tuesday's recall elections, but fell short of winning a third seat to capture a majority in the state Senate. Democrat Sandy Pasch camethisclose to defeating Republican incumbent Alberta Darling in the state's Eighth Senate District (Assembly and Senate districts are separate in Wisconsin, as opposed to legislative districts in states like New Jersey, where both houses represent the same real estate), but in the end Pasch was forced to concede.

Needless to say, Republicans are crowing over this result, calling it a humiliation for progressives and labor and declaring it a victory for Governor Scott Walker. But this analysis ignores several stubborn facts. First, the results involved 12 percent of Wisconsin's electorate, so continued Republican control of the state Senate doesn't reflect a mandate from the whole state. Secondly, newly elected Democratic senators Jennifer Shilling and Jessica King won in mainly Republican districts - representing areas of the state that had not sent Democrats to the state Senate in over a hundred years - and Sandy Pasch made her race in a similarly Republican region of Wisconsin competitive. Thirdly, Walker himself remains widely unpopular in Wisconsin, so the effort to recall him in January - which would involve a statewide vote - is unlikely to lose steam.

Walker is in trouble, and he knows it. He's suddenly become more conciliatory and more bipartisan in suggesting that the two parties work together in Madison to address jobs, even as he claims that unemployment in Wisconsin is easing (in fact, it's not). Walker allies are even conspiring to try to make gubernatorial recall elections tougher to set up. And, he has another to reason to be fearful - Dale Schultz, a maverick Republican state senator who sometimes votes with the Democrats, could provide the crucial seventeenth Senate vote in measures aimed at repealing or blocking Walker's agenda. Schultz was the only Republican state senator to vote against Walker's anti-union budget bill, and he represents a district that solidly went for John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election and Barack Obama in 2008. Schultz now holds the balance of power in Madison and could help Democrats block the most insufferable components of Walker's legislative agenda.

As progressive commentators have been saying, this is a marathon, not a sprint. Even if Democrats had taken over the Wisconsin State Senate outright, there'd still be a long road ahead for the progressive movement. But victories two out of three recall elections not only "ain't bad," it's an excellent start.