Democratic Brownout

Scott Brown's tell-all memoir revealing his history of child abuse may seem in part like a campaign device for the Massachusetts Republican's next U.S. Senate election campaign in 2012, but its early release suggests that he's getting the tale of his past out now to avoid the appearance of a campaign stunt later. And it would seem rather crass to tell about the abuse suffered as a child for purely political reasons. Some would disagree on the nature of the timing of Brown's book, though, suggesting that it's a way for Brown to get ahead of any potential Democratic challenger now. Indeed, the 2012 election campaign may have already begun. Six U.S. Senators to date - the latest being Democrat Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico - have announced that they will not seek re-election in 2012, allowing potential candidates in their states to prepare for the primary campaigns.

The field still looks dismal for Democrats, having to defend twice as many Senate seats next year with many vulnerable incumbents while the few Republicans up for re-election all but assured another six years in office. That includes Scott Brown. Despite Massachusetts being a heavily Democratic state, even Boston mayor Tom Menino, a Democrat, declares that the moderate, pragmatic Brown is unbeatable. In which case, the Democrats might as well run Martha Coakley against him again.

Among incumbent Senate Democrats, the most vulnerable ones for 2012 include Claire McCaskill of Missouri, who enthusiastically supported a health care law that only generates enthusiasm among its opponents, Sherrod Brown of economically depressed Ohio, and Jon Tester of Montana, who will likely face a Republican opponent - Denny Rehberg, the state's only House member - more popular than he is. Vulnerable Democratic seats in Florida and Nebraska have Republicans looking to execute a half Nelson (take out Bill of Florida or Ben of Nebraska) or a full Nelson (take out both). And, if not Brown, whom can the Democrats unseat on the Republican side? Roger Wicker of Mississippi? Bob Corker of Tennessee? Get real!

Democratic hopes for continued Senate control rest on open seats. Olympia Snowe's seat could open up if the Tea Party defeats her in a primary with one of their own candidates, but Democrats shouldn't assume that they would beat such a candidate. Look at Paul LePage, Maine's loudmouth Tea Party governor, who won that office in November. Right now, Democrats are considering the possibility of picking up Republican Jon Kyl's seat in Arizona. With former Arizona governor and current Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano ruling herself out, though, there aren't that many other prospects for the Democrats. I was just thinking how, if only Gabrielle Giffords hadn't been shot, she could run for Kyl's seat. She'd be a slam dunk.

It turns out that Giffords, due to her steadily progressive recovery from the January 8 massacre in Tucson, is being considered, and there are many calls for her to seek the Senate seat. U.S. Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz,a Florida Democrat and a Giffords ally, is currently helping to raise money for Giffords's re-election campaign to the House, though, and says that any idea of a Giffords Senate candidacy is premature.

So, for that matter, is the idea of a Republican takeover of the Senate, as the number of retirements from both parties is changing the landscape in the coming races. But Democrats still have an uphill battle to keep control of the upper house, given the number of Democratic seats up and the fact that it was this volatile class of seats that gave Republicans the majority in 1994, rendered the Senate evenly divided in 2000 (until Vermont Republican Jim Jeffords became an independent and switched party caucuses), and gave Democrats the majority in 2006.

And God help losing Democratic incumbents and challengers, because the party won't. Unlike losing Republicans, they won't asked to come back (like George Allen) and they won't be asked to try again (like John Thune). Democrats who lose in 2012, be it for the Senate or for the House, will be forgotten quickly.

That goes double for the guy in the White House at the top of the ticket as well. :-O