Updated Weather Report

As you have already gathered, Hurricane Dorian had no impact on New Jersey, but it did have an impact on Nova Scotia.  But nowhere did it have a greater impact than in the Bahamas, where it's created a humanitarian tragedy that is the worst crisis in the country's 46 years of independence.  And yet Donald Trump is all obsessed about trying to explain why he thought Dorian would hit Alabama - and used a Sharpie on a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map to include the state in the cone of uncertainty.  But what was certain about Dorian is that Alabama wouldn't be affected. 

So while Trump's government denies asylum seekers staying in the Bahamas the opportunity to come here after Dorian made much of the Bahamas uninhabitable, Trump's Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, threatened to fire NOAA staffers in Alabama for contradicting a Trump statement that Trump can't admit was a mistake.

Well, he'd better stop obsessing over the last storm and start obsessing over the next one - a tropical depression that's expected to become Tropical Storm Humberto.  Not only will it go over the Bahamas, it will move over Florida and possibly part of Georgia.

Alabama will be fine.

The Picture of Dorian

This is it.

And it's a hell of a storm. It is expected to approach the eastern coast of Florida sometime after the Labor Day holiday as a Category 4 hurricane. While the likeliest scenario for Dorian is that it makes landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula, there are computer projections suggesting that it might stop short of landfall and hug the coast as it turns north.  

Whatever happens in Florida, though, may only be the first chapter in this story.  If Dorian were to stay off shore as it moves north, it could have a serious impact on Georgia and the Carolinas.  And depending how the upper winds steer it, it could affect areas farther north than that.

I'll come out and say it - Dorian could strengthen over the ocean and possibly affect the greater New York area, where I live, this time next week!  Fortunately, the chances of that remain low . . . for now.

All that said, It's too early to tell where it ultimately goes until it makes landfall - or doesn't make landfall - in Florida.  And even though the storm may seem to stay the same, its picture gets stronger!