Here Comes Ian

I wish I were talking about Anderson or Gillian, but no, this isn't a post about seventies classic rock.  It's about the first hurricane -possibly a major hurricane - of the season to hit the mainland United States.  

Most forecasters expect this new storm called Ian to hit the Tampa Bay area in Florida (thought the GFS keeps projecting it go hit Mobile, Alabama), Where it goes next is unclear, but for now most computer projections show it going inland and becoming a garden-variety rainfall of areas farther north.  Some projections, however, show it going up the coast a as full-fledged storm that could wreck havoc on all coastal metropolitan areas north of the 36'30" parallel line, from Norfolk on up.

It could very well be another meteorologically troublesome October this year.

Hurricane Season

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season begins today, and I'm happy to report that we did not get a storm forming in the Atlantic before today.  So for once, at least, the season beginning when it's supposed to.

Alas, it could be off to a quick start.  Hurricane Agatha from the Pacific is now a tropical depression drifting across Mexico that could very well re-form as a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico - in which case it would be an entirely new storm, called Alex. If it does form, as is likely, it would then make landfall over Florida before going out over the Atlantic Ocean itself.

What's more, we can expect numerous storms in the Atlantic basin thanks to a La Niña pattern that helps tropical systems form easily and flat-out refuses to dissipate after dominating the Atlantic Ocean for nearly three years. In short, 2022 is going to be as busy as 2020 and 2021 were, meaning that even if the American Northeast doesn't get a direct hit, it could still get a storm's remnants, which, as the "remnants" of Ida proved this past September, can be as bad as the full storm. 😢