Elder Statesman

Talk radio host Larry Elder comes across as an odd bird - a black conservative Republican who dismisses New Deal social programs and gives air time to climate-change deniers and vaccine-resistant folks who think COVID is a bigger hoax than global warming. His campaign has been anything but orthodox.  He allegedly brandished a gun against his fiancée.   And yet here he is, running for governor of California in the September 14 recall election absent incumbent governor Gavin Newsom.  He's offended everyone in the mainstream press in his campaign, refusing to acknowledge them and giving time to GOP-friendly outlets in the media. 

And here's the scary part - he could actually win.

Here's the deal.  Gavin Newsom is in over his head.  He's done a haphazard job handling the COVID crisis in California, the state is literally burning up with all of those wildfires, there's a growing homelessness crisis, a fraud scandal has dealt a blow to the state's unemployment bureau, and a lot of people in California are so ticked off at the dude that they're willing to try anything different - even a black conservative nut job who threatens women and denies the very climate-change phenomenon that is fueling those wildfires in the first place.

The polls show a close race between those who support recalling Newsom and those who don't, but Newsom has the edge right now.  And Elder is hardly a shoo-in.  California voters who vote no on recalling Newsom can still vote for a governor to replace him, and those who vote no would likely vote for Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a real estate broker (but not a developer - he's not a Trump!) and a financial analyst who.. like Elder, has never held public office, but who is seen as a safer and more moderate choice than Elder.  If enough people who support the recall split their votes for their preferred candidate between Elder and other Republicans (and there are many), it could allow Paffrath to squeak by and win the governorship should the recall go through.

Alas, the betting money is on Elder to become the forty-first governor of California in the event of a successful recall, and it would be big blow not only to California Democrats but to Democrats across the country if Newsom, like Gray Davis before him, were to be fired by the voters.  But Davis at least lost to a popular movie actor who is a moderate Republican that believes in science.  Losing to a motormouth like Elder would be a bigger disaster for Newsom, though, on the bright side, Elder likely wouldn't win a full term in 2022 against another Democrat.  But the very idea of him being governor of California for even sixteen months is scary.

Come back, Caitlyn Jenner .  All is forgiven.