One Week To Go

Joe Biden goes into the final week of the 2020 presidential campaign against Donald Trump about eight points ahead in the polls if you combine the two averages everyone goes by, FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics.  If this were like any other year, I would predict a Biden victory next week with Biden winning the Presidency by six points, because winning presidential candidates usually win by two points less than what the polls the week before say they're going to win by.  In 1988, George H.W. Bush was up over Michael Dukakis by ten points going into the final week of the campaign; he won by eight.  Bill Clinton was up over President Bush in the polls by seven points going into the final week of the 1992 campaign; he won by five.

Thanks to the pandemic, Trump's dirty tricks, and the closeness of several swing-state polls, however, that standard doesn't apply.  Two thousand twenty has been like no other year, and hopefully we won't have another year like it again any time soon. But with everything that's happened so far in this crazy year, anything can happen in the days ahead, and Trump - now counting on rallies in the swing states to save his re-election campaign - could defy expectations once again.  And if the vote is close enough in states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona, Trump can be expected to sue to prevent a proper ballot count.

Even Biden says he believes that Trump can still win; after what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016, he's taking no chances.  That's why he's not taking any votes for granted and why he's remaining engaged right to the end.

Maybe he will win by six percentage points nationally.  After all, that standard of winning by two points less than what the polls from the week before say held in 2016.  Hillary Clinton was up by four points going into the 2016 presidential campaign; she won the popular vote by two.

The electoral vote, on the other hand . . .

Stay tuned, the 2020 presidential campaign is going to get even more interesting in its last seven days.