Off To the Races

I'm not assessing former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg as a presidential candidate because I already did that in an earlier post this month - except to say that he hopes to do what Joe Biden (but also Michael Bennet and Steve Bullock) is trying to do, which is bring together the moderates, independents and suburban women who helped the Democrats win back the House of Representatives in 2018 to win.  Except that people are resenting Bloomberg for jumping in so late with the idea that he can buy the Democratic presidential nomination. Which might help Biden, who knows he has to earn it and is an ordinary guy without a lot of money.

And Biden needs all the help he can get.  His debate performance probably would have been judged more favorably by the pundits if he hadn't identified former Illinois senator Carol Moseley Braun, the first black woman in to be elected to the Senate, as the only black woman elected to the Senate when trumpeting her endorsement of his candidacy - with the second black woman elected to the Senate, Kamala Harris, standing a few feet away from him.  The last thing you want to do is diss a sista like that, especially when your whole candidacy depends on black support.  But that's better than all of the brothas and sistas dissing you.  Ask Pete Buttigieg.

But then, it's perfectly understandable that Biden would forget Harris' existence.  So have the voters.  At least Andrew Yang remembered Beto O'Rourke.

So where do I put everyone's chances in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination campaign?  They all have a 50-50 chance, because I'm beginning to think that there will be a brokered convention.  Everyone is dismissing Bloomberg's strategy to run a national primary campaign - when, unlike France, there is no national primary - and skip the first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina)  simply because it's never worked before.  Well, there's always a first time, isn't there?  I could say Bloomberg isn't going to win, but then in 2015 I said the same thing about Trump, and look how that turned out.  One caveat, though:  The New York mayor's office has long been a dead end for politicians ambitious for higher office, as Bill de Blasio, Rudolph Giuliani, and Fiorello La Guardia all found out when they sought or thought of seeking the Presidency and as Ed Koch found out when he ran for governor of New York State, while the New York State governorship proved to be the springboard for both Roosevelts to assume the Presidency.

Andrew Cuomo, you should have run for President.  Just don't bother running now.