What Severe Storms?

Okay, I'm back.

Although the worst of the nasty weather forecast in New Jersey for today was to supposed to stay south of where I live, it turned out that it went farther south than initially forecast.  What could have been the worst severe-weather outbreak in  New Jersey to date - especially with the enhanced-risk zone affecting areas just south of Trenton - was as this morning expected to be nothing more than garden-variety showers and thunderstorms for the state's northern tier, a marginal risk for most of the rest of the state, and a slight risk for just Cape May County. 

And not only did the storm system producing severe weather move south, it dissipated.  As early as this morning, central Virginia along the U.S. 17 corridor and southern Maryland between the Potomac River and the Chesapeake Bay were in an enhanced-risk zone, and I know someone who lives in that part of Maryland.  But now Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey's Cape May County are all in a marginal-risk zone, the slight-risk zone being pushed into southern Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee and the enhanced-risk zone eliminated altogether, as seen below. That's a reversal you don't often see in weather projections.

One caveat, though . . ..  Summer still has a month to go, and it could be abnormally warm in late September and early October (and don't get me started about the peak of hurricane season).  We need to remain weather-aware for awhile.