Day of Decision

Well, today's the big day in Alabama, and I honestly don't know who is going to win the special Senate election.  But the Republicans will have many headaches in the near - and far - future if Roy Moore wins.

As for Al Franken . . . what happens in Alabama may have an impact on what happens in Minnesota.  For now, Franken's Senate seat is safely in Democratic hands, and Mark Dayton, the Democratic governor, will appoint a Democratic caretaker senator in Franken's place until a special election is held.  But Republicans have gained so much support in mainly Democratic Minnesota over the years, and they've been so competitive in recent statewide elections, that a special Senate election isn't a gimme for the Democrats. Although the state has not been carried by a Republican presidential candidate since 1972,  Republicans have done very well in Senate elections.  In 1976, the state was represented by two liberal icons in the Senate, Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale; a little over two years later, with Humphrey dead and Mondale as Vice President (you will note that I did not take the obvious easy shot), both of Minnesota's senators were Republicans.  More recently, Franken won a close 2008 race for his seat against incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman that wasn't called for months.  And by the way, Hillary Clinton only won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 1.5 percentage points.

Michael Smerconish of CNN has suggested - not reported, only suggested - that Franken could rescind his resignation if Moore wins today's election in Alabama.  But Franken could also choose to run in a special election to clear his name and let the voters ultimately decide whether he should go back to the Senate.  I don't know of any precedent for such a ploy in the modern era, but in 1881, when U.S. Senators were elected by state legislatures,  Republican senators Roscoe Conkling and Thomas Platt of New York resigned their seats to protest President James Garfield's civil service reform policy and offered themselves as candidates in the special election for the very seats they vacated, hoping for a win to demonstrate their political power.  Just one word of warning to Franken - Conkling's and Platt's strategy failed.  They were conservatives at a time when the New York state legislature was dominated by moderate Republicans, and so the two ex-senators were not re-elected.

As for Doug Jones, the Democrat opposing Roy Moore in Alabama and a former federal prosecutor, don't count him out.  He has been very competitive, he has a reputation for fairness and justice, and he is revered by black voters in Alabama for successfully prosecuting the perpetrators of the 1963 Birmingham church bombing as U.S. Attorney in northern Alabama.  He also was instrumental in coordinating  state and federal resources against Centennial Olympic Park bomber Eric Rudolph for another bombing in  Birmingham - an abortion clinic in 1997.  Jones also advocated that Rudolph be tried first in Alabama for the clinic bombing before his trial in for the Olympic park bombing in Georgia.  If Jones loses, it won't be for lack of trying.  But even some conservatives, like radio host Hugh Hewitt, think he's going to win.

Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be bumpy night . . ..