Quo Vadis, Democrats?

The Democrats didn't just resist Trumpism in last week's elections; they overran it.  In Virginia, Democrat Ralph Northam not only held on to win the governorship, he won by nine percentage points - thrice the margin the polls predicted.  And if that weren't enough, Virginia Democrats held the lieutenant governorship (elected on a separate ballot, unlike in New Jersey), held the attorney general's office (New Jersey's attorney general is appointed by the governor), and possibly won enough seats in the lower chamber of the legislature, called the House of Delegates, to get a majority, though that outcome is still uncertain.  What's more certain is that the House of Delegates' new Democratic caucus will have a more diverse membership, including an Asian woman, Hispanics, a transsexual, and an anti-gun advocate who was a news anchor at a Roanoke TV station . . . and saw his fiancée, a reporter at the same station, shot to death on live television. :-(

In New Jersey, Phil Murphy was elected governor easily, despite some nervousness caused by projections of low voter turnout and some closing of the gap by Kim Guadagno, his Republican opponent.  And while Virginia will have its first black lieutenant governor - a man whose last name is (and this is so ironic who knows anything about the history of Virginia's aristocratic families) Fairfax - New Jersey will have a black woman as its lieutenant governor, our second lieutenant governor overall since the office was created in 2009.  (No one with a Y chromosome has held it yet, as Guadagno is the current lieutenant governor.)  The Democrats already have majorities in both houses of the legislature. 

All across the land, Democrats scored big in down-ballot races in 2017 (including a special-election victory for a state Senate seat in Oklahoma on November 14), demonstrating that people are ready to fight back against Trump.  However, there's one thing the party still lacks - a message.  Democratic efforts to craft a message that resonates with the voters have largely fallen flat - the "better deal" biz has been forgotten four months after that silly slogan was unveiled! - and their gains were mostly concessions from the Republicans more than they were earned victories.  That is, it wasn't so much that the Democrats won as it was that the Republicans lost.

Here's one other thing the Democrats lack - a strategy. While the Republicans are trying to keep their raucous caucus together - and stave off the stench of Roy Moore - the Democrats are going into 2018 with the wind at their backs.  Unfortunately, that wind may be their own.  Democrats are looking to win back the House and the Senate, but two factors stand in their way.  First, voter suppression is still very much a problem in many states.  Second, many House seats and most Senate seats up in 2018  - particularly the Senate seats, most of them Democratic seats being in states Trump won - are in constituencies so Republican that the voters wouldn't even elect a Democrat even if the Democrats nominated Mother Teresa for office.  The Democratic Party has so far shown no evidence of any game plan or agenda to counteract this.  And need I mention the 36 governorships up in 2018? Wisconsin's Scott Walker has all but neutralized his opposition, and Republican governors like Larry Hogan in Maryland and Charlie Baker in Massachusetts have governed so much like moderate Republicans of yore that it's hard for Democrats in either state to paint them as Trump manques . . . or even as Scott Walker manques.   And in Ohio and Florida, where Republican governors are term-limited, the Democrats don't have any obvious contenders who could win the general elections. In Ohio, Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former U.S. Senator and a legend in Ohio politics, looks like the favorite, though Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, who is stepping down from that post to run for governor of Ohio, looks like a promising Democratic candidate.

Centrist Democrats are already talking about moderation as a message - the same losing message that's been costing the party for three decades.  It's time for the party to boldly embrace a liberal - don't say "progressive," we know that's a euphemism for "liberal" like "African-American," or "urban," is a euphemism for "black" - agenda and stick with it.  The template for a liberal agenda and a liberal message can be found in New Jersey, where Phil Murphy won the  governorship running  on a staunchly liberal platform in a moderate, suburban state and won big time after eight years of Chris Christie's boneheaded conservatism.  Murphy still has to deliver as governor, but if he does, it should inspire Democrats in other states running for office in 2018 to pursue an agenda that will be more about the people than about the moneyed interests. 

If the Democrats want to know where they're going, they have to see where they've been - not just with the Clintons but with the Kennedys and with Franklin Roosevelt.  Then maybe they'll remember what they're supposed to stand for.  My reports on the Democrats going the way of the Whigs have turned out to be greatly exaggerated, but they're not out of the woods just yet.