Scenes From a Marriage Debate

With the Supreme Court having decided to take up the merits of California's ban on same-sex marriages, as well as the provisions of the federal 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which denies tax breaks and health and pension  benefits to legally married same-sex couples, many gay rights activists think that this is their moment to gain full marriage equality in America.  They're more likely to take a small step toward that goal; if the Supreme Court gives them a victory, it will likely be a partial victory that may overturn the California law and ask Congress to re-assess the federal law but does not throw out bans on gay marriage nationally.  The Court may not even provide a ruling favorable to gays in any way, shape or form.       

The state of gay marriage in America is a mixed grill.  Forty-one states ban gay marriages, with thirty of them having written such bans into their state constitutions.  On the other hand, gay marriage - a wedge issue the Republicans used effectively as part of their strategy in the presidential election of 2004 (the only year the GOP has won the popular vote in a presidential election since 1988) - now has majority support nationwide.  However, while the Obama administration has decided not to enforce the Defense of Marriage Act, a lot of Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have decided not to let that slide. They've made their displeasure with the White House's position very clear.

Still, the momentum appears to be slightly on the side of gay rights activists.  Some conservatives have had to  come to terms with the presence of gays in America, largely because some of their own children are gay (Dick Cheney, et. al.), and it's possible that the conservative justices on the Supreme Court may be sympathetic to that reality.  However, even as some states like Maine, Maryland, and Washington have approved gay marriage, North Carolina earlier this year emphatically rendered it unconstitutional, and the conservative majority on the Court may be more swayed by states' rights issues rather than by civil rights issues.  On the other hand, if part or all of the Defense of Marriage Act is rendered unconstitutional out of fairness to legally married same-sex couples in the nine states where gay marriage is allowed, that would, ironically, recognize the rights of those states that have legalized same-sex marriage.

My guess is that the Court's rulings on the California and federal laws will try to offer something for both sides without pleasing either one of them.  Whatever the Supreme Court says won't be the last word on this contentious issue.