Thursday, October 18, 2012

My Electoral Map

The Huffington Post's Politics Web page allows readers to create their own presidential electoral maps by clicking on different swing states and choosing which candidate will win each state.  I tried that myself  and this was the map I came up with:


So, I predicted an Obama victory, but not a huge one - 294 electoral votes to 244.  (The names of the swing states are highlighted in yellow.)  Note that I conceded Florida and even Colorado to Romney.  That's just the way I see the polls going there right now.  I was probably a little too generous in giving Colorado to Romney, but I was probably too generous in giving Virginia to Obama as well. 
For the record, Obama would win be an electoral vote of 290 to 248 on this projection map if I added Colorado to his column and gave Virginia to Romney.  If I gave Obama both Colorado and Virginia, he would win by an electoral vote of 303 to 235.  If I gave Romney both states, Obama would still win, 281 to 257, which is more in line with the projection Web sites' current forecasts.
I'm confident that Obama can win Ohio, especially given the news that early voting on the weekend before Election Day can go ahead in that state, but I'm especially certain that Romney will win Florida.  Rick Scott won't have it any other way. :-O   

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