You So Can't Do That

Before Paul Ryan's Medicare fiasco and Kathy Hochul's House special election victory in upstate New York (and certainly before former New York congressman Anthony Weiner's scandal), Democratic congressman Steve Israel, also of New York, expressed confidence to MSNBC's Chuck Todd that, as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, he could orchestrate winning the 25 (now 24, thanks to Hochul) seats necessary to win back control of the House of Representatives from the Republicans in 2012. Todd was unpersuaded. "Not too many people think you can do that," he told Israel.

I wanted Todd to explain why he believed not too many people thought Israel could pull off what he proposed to do, though Todd never did explain why. I know why I don't think the Democrats can retake the House in 2012 - because of redistricting and reapportioning. But I wanted to know if Todd reached the same conclusion as I did for the same reasons.

Anyway, with Hochul in and Weiner gone, the Democrats think they can pick up where they left off and focus once again on Republican efforts to get rid of Medicare and other popular Great Society programs. I don't think they can do that. Republicans have succeeded in making deficit and debt reduction the largest priority in Washington by tying it to job creation; they've managed to convince enough people that cutting spending and the debt will generate more economic activity. Which is why they keep blocking job bills in Congress without paying a price for their intransigence - it's just more "government spending." By setting the perimeters of the debate, the Republicans have effectively neutered their opposition. Democrats may get a victory from preserving Medicare, but effectively sell an alternative agenda? Not too many people think they can do that.

In a country where only 22 percent of the voters identify themselves as "liberal" and where half the voters considers the debt an important issue, it's actually kind of pathetic to see progressive Democrats fantasize of coming out strong with their own agendas and policy proposals. Keep a Democratic majority in the Senate as well as regain the House in 2012? Not too many people think they can do that. Amend the health care law with a public insurance option in 2013? Not too many people think they can do that. Promote a green economy? Not too many people think they can do that. Pass a sweeping infrastructure bill? Not too many people think they can do that. Get people to even care about infrastructure? Not too many people think they can do that. Repeal the Bush tax cuts? Absolutely no one thinks they can do that.

I'd like to offer words of hope and optimism to my progressive friends. But not too many people think they I can do that.