Caroline, No

It seemed so obvious. It looked like it would really happen. Instead, Caroline Kennedy will not be the next United States senator from New York.

I haven't gotten a chance to comment on Ms. Kennedy or her non-appointment to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat, so now's my chance. Ms. Kennedy - whose only experience in Washington was playing on the South Lawn of the White House - might very well have served in Congress's upper house with distinction and honor. After all, she's a strong advocate for public education, and she's been involved on this and other issues in New York City. But her Bushian inarticulateness and her tightly controlled accessibility to the press hurt her, as did the inference that, having been a devoted wife and mother for so long, was ready to try a Senate stint to get out of the house. In fact, her husband reportedly balked at trading a New York address for a D.C. one, and his objections may have been the "personal reasons" she cited when she withdrew. But her withdrawal was likely involuntary; the question is not so much whether she jumped or was pushed, but rather, who pushed her.

New York Governor David Paterson - ironically, an unelected holder of elective office seeking to appoint another official to elective office - was hardly adroit in his handling of the appointment. Even Rod Blagojevich's appointment of Roland Burris to President Obama's Senate seat was done more cleanly. His haphazard process did not serve New York well, nor did it honor Ms. Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, or the ultimate appointee, Kirsten Gillebrand.

Speaking of whom, I'm having a hard time gauging this apparent novice. A devout Catholic, Gillebrand is nonetheless pro-choice on abortion and also pro-choice on guns; she supports the right to choose to have one. I don't know what this means for New York's representation in Washington (and, as a New Jerseyan, I ultimately don't give a twit), but both Ms. Kennedy and Ms. Gillebrand both have a common advantage over the woman they sought to replace.

They've actually lived in the state of New York most of their lives.