The Republicans In Michigan

It will be very interesting to see how the Republican primary in Michigan today shakes out. Mitt Romney is trying to prove he can win a major state by staking everything on the state he was born and raised in, while John McCain is counting on the support he had here in 2000 to keep his current campaign going. An unknown variable is Mike Huckabee, whose mix of Christian conservatism and economic populism will undoubtedly play favorably in state with constituencies in both realms of influence.

Romney is also stressing the need to bring back lost automotive jobs to Michigan, but history is against him. Several trade agreements and market preferences have allowed the Japanese to gain an upper hand not just in the U.S. auto market but worldwide, and a considerable number of the automobile brands and companies that existed when Romney's father ran American Motors - including American Motors itself - are gone. McCain stresses the need for new jobs in new and up-and-coming industries to replace the ones lost in Michigan, but while that stance gives him points for honesty, it remains to be seen if it will translate into voted for him.

The absence of Rudolph Giuliani is telling. Giuliani has based his campaign on the theme of keeping people safe from terrorism, but that message obviously doesn't play well in a state plagued by economic stagnation, with cities known for violent crime. Michigan didn't go for George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004, and McCain won the last contested Republican primary here. Giuliani's message is all wrong for Michigan, but even if it clicks in Florida, it will be hard for him to jump-start his campaign with a win in the South.

Ask Al Gore, who tried a jump start for his 1988 presidential campaign in Dixie with contests on Super Tuesday. He won six states, but no one noticed. It got him to the New York primary (then held in April), but he didn't get beyond that.