Weather Weary

We're nearing the  peak of hurricane season soon, and it's too soon to say whether Tropical Storms Fay and Isaias are the worst storms my area is getting for this season.  Last week, we had a triple threat of severe thunderstorms - Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday - and we got at least one severe storm that passed before it could do any damage. But there are no indications that we're going to get anything comparable to those storms in the next two weeks.

That's not to say we won't get any inclement weather in the next two weeks.  A cold front arriving on Labor Day is expected to being showers and thunderstorms all up and down the Northeast . . . and it's going to stay here for much of the week.  It's too soon, though, to say whether any of them will be severe.  But tropical cyclones, though they will still form, will mostly stay away from the East Coast.  As I type, one tropical depression that formed off the East Coast and has become a tropical storm, though its trajectory will take it out to sea.  Any storm that forms off the west coast of Africa is likely to also remain out at sea, what's called a "fish storm" because those are the only living creatures affected.   (As for frog storms, you can read about those in the Old Testament.)  There is one potential cyclone that could affect land - a storm heading west across the Caribbean toward Central America.

It should be noted that even though the East Coast will not be affected by a tropical cyclone during hurricane peak period - September 10 and a couple of days before and after - we in the Northeast could still be hit by a hurricane much later.  Repeat: Sandy hit us in late October.  But for now, at least, the weather is giving us a break.

Maria, Maria, Maria, Maria . . .

The most frightening sound I’ve ever heard.  All the horrifying sounds of the world (particularly the sounds of climate change) in a single word.

Hurricane Maria went full tilt boogie over Puerto Rico, setting that island back about five hundred years.  There isn't a single resident of the island with electricity, and only one in ten residents of Puerto Rico have running water.

I'm sorry to say that restoring power there isn't going to be a piece of cake.  San Juan may be without power for up to six months.  It's worse than Irma hitting Florida. Not everyone lost power, and those who did got help from utility companies outside Florida, like Public Service Electric and Gas (PSE&G) of New Jersey and New York), whose crews drove their trucks down to the Sunshine State  to get everyone who lost power back online.

I regret to point out that Puerto Rico is different for one obvious reason: PSE&G doesn't have boats. :-(

And Maria's future path?  Computer projections have mostly been consistent showing a scenario that involves Maria coming north along the East Coast and making a close call - the Outer Banks of North Carolina and either Virginia Beach or the Delmarva Peninsula would be likeliest places for a glancing blow - but the upper air patterns steering the storm and jet stream going over the continent, the idiosyncrasies of which I do not pretend to understand, could move Maria toward a possible landfall.  Some forecasts even note a disturbance coming in from the east that could interact with Maria and create a Sandy-type "superstorm."

Also, Jose - now a tropical storm is doing what the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said it would do, even though it seemed comical at the time - looping around in a cloverleaf off the coast of Massachusetts, like it had done near the Bahamas, and possibly heading back to the coast near the Delaware Bay as a depression.  This looping could either help steer Maria out to sea or pull Maria into the East Coast and cause to make landfall somewhere between Virginia Beach and New York City.  Or, Jose could dissipate and allow Maria to go out to sea or make landfall.

Got all that?

Anyway, here's an ensemble of all the hurricane path projections as of 6 PM Eastern, September 20, from the Global Ensemble Forecast System, courtesy of weather geek Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits Web site:

As you can see, the ensemble is very confident that, despite everything in play, Maria will miss the East Coast completely.  But because everything is in play, landfall somewhere north of the 36th parallel can't be ruled out yet, and as Mr. Cowan noted on this very map, you should not use this map to plan or decide anything.  After all, this is projection and not a forecast.

On a personal note, this September has been a lousy month for me.  I've had issues too personal to share here, and I've had to deal with a lot of crap in between.  With all that in mind, and after anxiety over Irma and Jose, the last thing I need is yet another hurricane to worry about, especially if this one turns out to have a better chance of hitting the area where I live than the previous two.  I just hope everyone in Puerto Rico - including someone I know and friends of relatives of mainland Puerto Ricans I know personally - are all right. :-(