Strait Jacket

When Iran got attacked, the Iranians took control of and closed the Strait of Hormuz, Trump responded by . . . blocking it?  A blockade of a strait that was already closed?  So no one could pay tolls to the Iranian government that Trump promised he would help the Iranian people overthrow? Blocking blockers?  That don't even make good nonsense.

Then Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz yesterday and Trump said the war would be over soon.  The stock market jumped.  But Trump never bothered to lift the U.S. blockade on the strait, so . . . Iran closed the strait again today and . . . well, apparently Trump made a killing off the killing by manipulating the market and then saying he plans to bomb Iran again soon.

Well, I've long since stopped trying to make sense out of all this, but I know that as long as the strait is closed, the Persian Gulf is the maritime equivalent of Willy Wonka's chocolate factory - no one goes in, no one comes out.  And since so many resources that make modern civilization function, including oil and helium, come out of the Gulf region, it means that much of the West and a good deal of the rest of the world will suffer really severe shortages of almost everything.  And given Iran's newfound power in the region and the United States' lost credibility, the Omanis and the Emiratis ought to consider a canal across the Musandam Peninsula to bypass the strait . . . though it would take at least a decade or so to even plan it before they could start building it.

Trump won't live long enough to deal with a long-term Iranian domination of the strait.  And that's assuming he even lives to see January 2029. 

Iran Amok Again

At a pre-inaugural party for President-elect Ronald Reagan in January 1981, as the Iran hostage crisis was nearing its end - the American hostages were released on January 20, 1981, the day President Reagan was sworn in - Bob Hope, always one for a zinger that bordered on bad taste but was still trenchant, told the following joke: "What's big, sandy, and glows in the dark?  Iran, after Reagan's inaugurated." 

Ronald Reagan, of course, had no intention of nuking anyone, viewing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip in which to negotiate with the United States' adversaries - "Peace is only achieved by a projection of strength" - in hammering out a treaty.  Like the Flintstones" character the Great Gazoo and his button for destroying the universe, Reagan never had any intention of using the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  He just liked the idea of having one.

Trump does want to use nuclear weapons - because he figures that there's no sense in having them if you don't use them - and so threatened to wipe out Iran and seven thousand years of its history and heritage with said nukes to make Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, which would still be open today if Trump hadn't started a war with Iran in the first place.  But then, at the last minute, Trump announced a "cease-fire" that he tried to treat as a victory and as a testament to his negotiating skills.  Right.  Only the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and the Iranians are charging fees - tolls, if you will - for oil tankers, and the "deal" does nothing regrading Iran's nuclear program.  Meanwhile, the "cease-fire" is being violated by the U.S.'s closest and only partner, Israel, which is busy bombing pro-Iranian militias in southern Lebanon.

All indications that, short of nuking Iran proper, Trump plans a ground assault on Kharg Island, the strategic island where Iran's oil exports are stored and sent out, which could involve a force as big as 50,000 service personnel.  It would be a fruitless - a fatally fruitless - endeavor, for the war is already lost.

Anyone who's been to a gas station can attest to that.  

As for rising gasoline prices . . . get used to it, SUV owners.  Good luck in finding a more fuel-efficient replacement.

Gas Up . . .

 . . . before gas is up.

Trump's war on Iran has caused gasoline prices to start climbing, and the Iranians have closed the Strait of Hormuz that separates the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea.  This strait, one of the narrowest maritime bottlenecks in the world, is the only way Arab oil can get out into the world because that's where the Persian Gulf is from where the Gulf states ship their oil exports.

Which is very inconvenient for people who own a Ford Expedition.

Or just about any other sport utility vehicle on the market today.

Of course, if you have a Honda Civic, you'll get off easier.  Maybe not by much, but you'll still be able to drive by a gasoline station and honk your horn in merriment while some guy is blowing 140 bucks to fill the gas tank in his Chevrolet Tahoe.  

But if you prefer to try to save money on gasoline, no matter what vehicle you own, you'd better be prepared for spending more money on gas and liking it, because mass transit, never very comprehensive in most of These States, has been contracting and cratering of late.  As I noted on this blog, it's almost impossible to take a bus into new York City from parts of northern New Jersey.

No matter . . . given how long and protracted this oil shock will be - because even though the U.S. is a leading oil producer, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz raises oil prices everywhere, because it's a global commodity, and they won't drop for a long time even if the war in Iran is over tomorrow - that means that the era of the sport utility vehicle and the daily-driver pickup truck is almost over.

It's too bad that General Motors and Ford don't have any existing car platforms, especially in the compact segment, to replace the light trucks and crossovers that are suddenly going to be even more hard to sell than they already are.  Stellantis may be able to retool its American factories with cars based on Opel and Peugeot platforms. 

And I have one question to ask of Volkswagen . . .

VW?  Can we have the Polo here now?  Pleeeeeeeeeeeeez????