Iran Amok Again

The conditions in the Middle East that existed before the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani seem to have been restored, now that the Iranian government has admitted to shooting down a Ukrainian jet airliner by accident after having denied it.  The Iranian people are mad at the government for not being straight with them, and they're tired of being taken for fools by their authoritarian leaders.

And all the world is wondering and watching . . . not watching Iran, but watching Donald Trump and wondering how he's going to screw this up.

Every time something happens in the Middle East to the United States' advantage, Trump seems to undermine the very country he promised to put first and restore greatness to.   And the Democrats still haven't figured out how to respond to unfolding events either, if Nancy Pelosi's convoluted effort to criticize Trump for escalating tensions with Iran that may have led to the downing of this jetliner - with a lot of Iranian students - while making clear that she does not support the actions of Iran's government is any indication.  She was immediately attacked as pro-Iran, which, as I warned, is a good strategy in a culture that favors slogans over nuance.

Fortunately, Pelosi doesn't have to worry about that so much when Trump and his Cabinet are stepping on their own and each other's toes.  They can't even agree on whether or not multiple embassies were targeted by Soleimani before they took him out, and Trump reportedly authorized the operation back in May or June of 2019 and waited for the right (read politically expedient) moment to carry it out.  Yet, while a majority of Americans agree that the assassination of Soleimani makes the country less safe, a plurality of Americans supported the operation.  And the Iranian government has made it clear that they're not done with avenging his death just yet.

I think the best thing for America to do is let events in Iran run its course while keeping an eye out for possible proxy retaliations for Soleimani's death in the near future.  The protests in Iran right now could lead to a new regime in a relatively short time because that's more or less how the revolution against the Shah transpired - strikes and protests against his reign that began in late 1977 and picked up steam in late 1978 led to the Islamic Republic in early 1979.  This time I suspect that the timetable will be quicker.

Imminent Stupidity

When I heard Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insist that the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was justified because of imminent threat to U.S. embassies in Iraq and elsewhere without providing any proof or explaining just how close they were to happening, I merely looked at him on the TV screen and had one thought in response:

"Nice tie!" 

I don't think American credibility has been lower than it is right now, but with Trump still in the White House and possibility getting his lease on it renewed in November (more about that in a minute), it could plummet to greater depths than the Marianas Trench soon.  European nations are angry with us and refuse to work with us now to secure Iraq, which wants our military out of its territory and has demanded a meeting to discuss the details of a withdrawal.  (Pompeo refused.)  Senators of both parties are disgusted with Trump about the briefing over the Soleimani killing because of the lack of transparency.  Trump's operation as also united Iraqis and Iranians against America (not to mention turning the entire planet against America!) and has turned Iranians to supporting their government after demonstrating against it. 

Get used to it.  In November, the voters will cast their ballots on two issues.  One is the economy and I can't remember what the other issue is.  And in fact, the economy is chugging full steam ahead.  And no matter how Democrats insist that they are not sorry Soleimani, who made a name for himself murdering Americans, is gone while saying simultaneously that now or any other time was not the right time to take him out because of the backlash it started, Trump will paint them as being soft on terrorism and unpatriotic.  And it will work - especially among older voters who remember the Iran hostage crisis of 1979-81.  He'll likely compare Democratic dissatisfaction with the Soleimani operation and how and where it was carried out (in Baghdad's airport) to opposition to executing Hermann Göring (who actually escaped a hanging at Nuremberg by committing suicide).  Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders - the wrong man at the wrong time - is ahead in Iowa while Joe Biden is in fourth place and attractive candidates like Michael Bennet are getting no place.  (Bright side: Marianne Williamson finally quit the race.)  The Democrats ought to prove themselves in appealing to the general electorate and getting the voters to think of something more essential and more important than the economy, but the 2020 presidential campaign suggests that they're not capable of doing either.

Nice tie.

Iran: My Prediction

Now that Iran has fired rockets into Iraqi bases housing America servicemen to avenge the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the year 2020 will likely become the disaster I figured it would be when I posted my New Year's Day blog entry last week.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely to cause more trouble in response to any trouble Donald Trump - who wants to be America's Supreme Leader - causes.  And then we'll have another endless war.  Here's what will happen.

Trump's approval rating will go up forty points.

It will go back down again after the stock market falls - but not terribly far down, as defense contractors will prop up stock values overall.

Then the stock market will go full bear market when the price of oil on the global market skyrockets and causes gasoline in America to go up to eight dollars a gallon.

And when Main Street feels Wall Street's pain, that's when Trump 's approval rating will go down fifty points.

Either way, prepare for austerity.