Iran News

I've chosen to step back from my earlier prediction of the Islamic Republic in Iran being overthrown, because it appears that many in Iran want to settle the election disputes within the framework of the current system. But maybe not for much longer. The government is divided on how to deal with the reformers, and the hardliners seem to be in danger of losing control of the situation.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in this week's news from Iran. Reports of torture of dissidents in Iranian prisons have surfaced, and a protest near the grave of killed demonstrator Neda Soltan, whose death has become the focus of so much ire in the country. Riot police were brought in to beat back the illegal demonstration with tear gas and clubs, but some police officers treated the protesters lightly and hinted at solidarity with them. This is the first time there have been hints of such discord among the official security forces, suggesting that if the government is to survive, it has a lot to deal with internally.

Former presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who tried to join the demonstration but was blocked for doing so, has called for protests throughout the week. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to be sworn in for a second term as president of Iran. This isn't over yet.

Vote Early and Often

President Obama's speech in Cairo had such a positive effect on the Muslim world that pro-American politicians won elections in Lebanon, Given that, and given the President's conciliatory moves toward Iran, it seemed likely that that reformist presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi would comfortably defeat incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad going into this past Friday's vote.

It didn't quite turn out like that. As anyone who had the good sense to ensure that their television sets had digital reception beforehand knows already, the vote count in Iran gave Ahmadinejad a 2-1 victory . . . but with many provinces reporting far more votes than any one candidate could possibly expect to win, making a lot of people very upset. President Ahmadinejad dismissed the reaction of Mousavi supporters as comparable to soccer fans blowing off steam after a match.

Dude, this doesn't look like Manchester United fans bitching about a loss to Everton.

The Iranian people are rising up en masse to protest a voted that was most likely rigged in favor of the incumbent President, who's known to be the preferred candidate of the cleric councilors who actually run the country. Internet access has been cut, demonstrations have been banned, and Mousavi is under pressure to concede, and the people are not taking the results at face value. The supreme religious council is so unnerved that they've even called for an investigation into the vote themselves, although it could be mere window dressing. More likely, they're really scared.

If only the American people had been this much up in arms when Albert Gore had the presidency stolen from him in 2000.

If this happened in a Latin American country, it would mean a new government in a week, and I have an Argentine friend who can possibly vouch for me on that. No one is predicting a revolution in Iran like the one that toppled the Shah thirty years ago, because some of the mullahs support continued electoral and democratic reform and Mousavi had planned to support, and govern within the framework of, the Islamic Republic. But with the Iranian economy a mess, unemployment rising, and Ahmadinejad increasingly clueless, the "experts" could be wrong. Iran is and always will be a devoutly Islamic country, but many Iranians, including younger ones, are looking beyond the theocratic model of governance and looking for a more enlightened civic path.

I trust this blog will not reach anyone in Iran.