A Wiser Republican Party?

Having returned from my Easter hiatus, I comment once again on the body politic in America, such as it is.

It seems that the Republican party, much to the chagrin of its many detractors, might regain enough of its collective sanity to, if not get President Barack Obama voted out of office, hold on to the House and take the Senate. The battle for the Senate is the easy part; they only need to gain four seats from the Democrats, and they are defending less than half as many seats as the Democrats - and those ten Republican seats are all considered ultra-safe, even Scott Brown's in Massachusetts. The House is less clear. Democrats only need 25 House seats to retake control, but added seats in Republican states at the expense of seats in Democratic and swing states - many of which happen to currently be under Republican governors and have Republican majorities in one or both houses of their legislature - could give the GOP an advantage in the redistricting based on the 2010 census, which is handled by elected officials in the states. But Paul Ryan's Medicare "reform" proposals could complicate things for the Republicans. The Democrats' chances of re-taking the House should become clearer once the redistricting is finalized.

Two Western Republicans, realizing the stakes, have reacted for the good of their party. In Arizona, Governor Jan Brewer wisely vetoed a bill that would have required presidential candidates to present their birth certificates to be allowed on state ballots. Calling it "a bridge too far," and obviously wanting to dissociate herself from the GOP lunatic fringe, Brewer would have none of this. She clearly wants the party to focus less on the "birther" theories circulating about Obama in Republican circles and concentrate on the issues.

She also vetoed, by the way, a bill that would have allowed students at colleges and universities to carry concealed firearms, calling it "poorly written." In the wake of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting in Tucson in January, it was poorly proposed as well. Brewer has her faults. Many of them. But fanaticism is not of them.

Meanwhile, Nevada senator John Ensign announced his resignation over the weekend regarding corruption charges referred to earlier on this blog. Nevada's Republican governor, Brian Sandoval, will likely appoint U.S. Representative Dean Heller to the seat. Heller, who had already planned to run for Ensign's seat when Ensign announced he would not seek re-election next year, now has the power of the incumbency and should be able to secure an already safe GOP seat. But maybe not. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com crunched the numbers, and he declared that appointed senators of either party historically have only a 50 percent chance of winning a term in their own right.

It looks to be an exciting election cycle next year . . ..

Ensign Strikes His Colors

John Ensign, the junior and juvenile Republican senator from Nevada, has announced that he will not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2012, and it wasn't so surprising. Ensign, who had an affair with Cindy Hampton, one of his fundraising aides, is under investigation by the Senate Ethics Committee. The committee hopes to determine whether Ensign violated Senate rules by giving Cindy Hampton's husband and Ensign's ex-friend Doug Hampton lobbying work and then encouraging him to connect lobbying clients with the senator's office. Ensign's parents, meanwhile, gave money to the Hamptons - $96,000, which Ensign's lawyer described as a gift. This was all apparently done in the effort to keep news of the affair from leaking. Doug Hampton himself may be under investigation for similarly violating lobbying rules by steering clients to Ensign per the senator's suggestions. Hampton has suggested that the investigation of Ensign by the Senate - the Justice Department has determined that no criminal charges against the senator are necessary - is costing the government money and time, and Ensign should just resign his seat right now.

Wait: Ensign's parents got mixed up in all this?

Anyway, it's a big mess. Meanwhile, Republican Representative Dean Heller has become the favorite for the 2012 Republican nomination for Ensign's seat; his fellow congressional delegate Shelley Berkley is the favorite for the Democratic nomination. While Heller may have the edge as the national momentum is still with the Republicans, the growth of Nevada's Hispanic population - and Harry Reid's unexpectedly impressive performance in winning a fifth term over Republican challenger Sharron Angle - could help tilt this seat to the Democrats despite Ensign's retirement.

And Sharron Angle may be back for another crack at a Senate seat. Remember, Ensign almost beat Reid in 1998, then picked up Nevada's other Senate seat - vacated by Richard Bryan - in 2000. So there's a precedent here.

Regarding Ensign, Margaret Carlson of Bloomberg News suggests that the senator might have survived the sex scandal the way Louisiana Republican senator David Vitter survived his own prostitution scandal - by confessing publicly and apologizing. Carlson pointed out that it wasn't the crime that brought down Ensign, but the cover-up. After Watergate, you'd think people (people other than Vitter, anyway) would figure that out.

News of the Weird

U.S. Senator John Ensign of Nevada looked to be in big trouble when it turned out he had an affair with a staffer's wife, but when the Republican lawmaker announced the affair himself to short-circuit an extortion scheme against him, it got him a warm reception from his fellow GOP senators. They applauded him at their weekly luncheon. That showed 'em! :-D

Meanwhile, Mark Sanford, South Carolina's Republican governor, went on a five-day hike on the Appalachian Trail without telling his wife, the lieutenant governor, the South Carolina state police, and just about everyone else in the state.

Oh yeah, he might have hiked naked.

I didn't know Republicans were trying to get themselves back to the garden. Sanford wanted to get back to Eden!

He has a better chance than John Ensign.