Europe Rises, America Falls

Having not experienced an age of antiquity, a medieval period, or a Renaissance, and having broken all ties with our mother country, which has experienced all that, the United States has long lacked the maturity or the wisdom to be a world leader.  This was evident as soon as the U.S. replaced Great Britain and France as the leading power of the West in the late 1940s, when the Chinese Communists drove Chiang Kai-shek from the mainland to Taiwan and the leading paranoiacs in Washington rhetorically asked, "Who lost China?", as if a country so old even its laundry secrets date back to antiquity was ever ours to lose.  The one thing that gave us legitimacy as a world leader was our values system - our commitment to the rule of law, our generosity to other countries in the form of the Peace Corps and the United States Agency for International Development, and our support for international health and education standards - but most of all our commitment to other countries fighting for their freedom and for their sovereignty.  Yes, we made some blunders - overthrowing democratically elected socialist governments in Latin America, invading Iraq - but overall our commitment to freedom remained strong.

Not . . . any . . . more.

This past week, American leaders, from the Orange Man in the White House to his vice presidential lackey to the drunk running the Pentagon (replacing a brilliant black man like Lloyd Austin with Pete Hegseth to lead Defense is like a '60s oldies radio station playing Sam Cooke records switching to a '90s oldies format that plays Michael Bolton covers of Sam Cooke songs), have made it clear that they will no longer back Ukraine in its fight against Russia.  Not because we can't afford it, or because we care about the carnage in the war, but because . . . we just don't want to.  Our so-called leaders have decided that a commitment to a free and democratic Ukraine and a fair and just peace for Ukraine and for all of Europe is no business of ours.  This is the same country that never recognized the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union, of which Ukraine was one of the original republics (though not by choice).  This is the same country that, until President Biden was gone, continued to commit to helping Ukraine in its fight against Vladmir Putin.  Trump, rather than redouble American efforts to aid the Ukrainians, chose instead to have a summit with Putin for which neither Ukraine nor the European Union were to be consulted, to discuss a peace deal that neither Ukraine nor the European Union support - one that would support Russian claims to Ukrainian territory.  

Oh yeah, and Americans would get the rights to half of Ukraine's mineral resources.  Trump tried to get Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign a document to that effect, but Zelensky refused.  Meanwhile, Pete Hegseth reaffirmed Russian claims to Ukrainian territory and its own regional interests by saying it was inconceivable that Ukraine regain its land from before the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and should not allowed to join the European Union or NATO.  (So, even while Trump and Putin were acting like Ribbentrop and Molotov in pilfering Eastern Europe, Hegseth was appeasing the Russians for peace in our time while in . . . Munich.)

Now the Europeans, with encouragement from President Zelensky and leadership from President Emanuel Macron of France, are planning to combine their military forces to come to Ukraine's aid.  Great Britain - no longer an EU member but still having an interest in Continental affairs - has committed more aid to Ukraine.  The nations of Europe are banding together to help Ukraine because they no longer trust us anymore.  Why should they?  A plurality of us just put Trump back into the White House and he's still getting broad support in the polls.  Not only is America withdrawing from its international commitments, American voters seem to be just fine - happy, even - with that.  The Europeans knew that Trump's return was inevitable, largely, because they've long known what I said at the beginning of this post - Americans are not mature enough and wise enough to lead the world, and the large support Trump enjoys among voters signified to them that we were no longer committed to a value system - the one thing that legitimized as as a superpower in the first place.  

When Joe Biden assumed the Presidency in 2021, he famously said, "America is back!"  To which world leaders replied, "But for how long?"  The answer - four years.  And even if "America is back"  in 2029 should a Democrat be elected President, the rest of the world won't want us back.  We're too unlearned and too foolish, too mercurial and too unstable, The question is no longer whether the European Union should lead the free world . . . they must lead it!   Because not only will Trump not lead it . . . he's too busy working with Musk to make sure we're no longer part of it. 

Union Jerk

The United Kingdom is officially out of the European Union (EU), the withdrawal having taken place this past Friday.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is looking forward to negotiating new trade deals with the EU before the end of the withdrawal process on December 31.

Good luck with that, Boris.  Experts who know a whole lot more about these things than I do say that Johnson will have a tremendously difficult time negotiating with a 27-nation economic bloc with a hundred million or so more people than the U.S., a country that would theoretically benefit from Britain's new free-agent status in terms of trade. Britain is a country of only sixty million people or so.  What's Johnson's leverage?

The British probably dream of restoring their empire, which is pretty hard to do when you remember that its collection of overseas dependencies is down to Bermuda, a few islands in the Caribbean, the Falkland Islands, a military base on some forgotten atoll in the Indian Ocean, and a rock on the Spanish coast.  They probably hope to re-affirm their close ties to the Commonwealth formed out of its former colonies, particularly its economic ties, but at this point re-affirming its connections to Canada and India, and other places mentioned in that Kinks song, would sort of be a parent-child relationship in which the children take care of the mother country.  Ironically, it was the Commonwealth that served as a reason for French President Charles de Gaulle to block British entry into the EU, then called the European Economic Community (EEC), or the Common Market, and worries about the fragmentation of the Commonwealth made joining the EEC made it a hot issue in Britain for the Wilson and Heath governments.  (Britain joined in 1973.)  

Britain is not profiting off its exit from the EU just yet and may not do so for a long time.  The pound is sinking (to cop a song title from Paul McCartney),  and economic growth has stagnated.  Scotland, where the EU is more popular, is thinking of seceding and joining the EU, and Ulster could re-unite with the rest of Ireland on the basis of Scottish independence.  But no matter how dumb this withdrawal from the EU may be, Brexit is nowhere nearly as stupid as the U.S. exiting the Paris Agreement.  Crashing out of a continental market is much less severe than crashing into the climate. >:-( 

Brexit Redux Redux

The British are doing their process of withdrawal from the European Union over again.  And again.  And again.  And yet . . . again.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has worked out a deal for British withdrawal from the European Union - "Brexit" - that phases in new tax and trade regulations gradually and offers a deal over goods crossing the U.K.-Irish border that separates British Ulster from the rest of Ireland, which boils down to a streamlined set of rules that avoids unnecessary disruptions.  (If I tried to explain the new Brexit deal in detail, I'd be here too long.)  Instead of pleasing enough Members of Parliament (MPs) to vote for the detail, Johnson angered more MPs than satisfied them, with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists fearing that the deal would allow for Irish unification under the Republic of Ireland rather than allow Ulster to remain in the United Kingdom, and Scottish MPs increasing their demands for Scotland's independence.  And Labour, which wanted the United Kingdom to remain in the European Union (EU), doesn't like the deal at any rate.  Parliament instead passed a resolution requiring Johnson to ask the EU for yet another delay, beyond the current October 31 deadline.  Johnson has vowed not to ask for another delay, which means the U.K. could crash out of the EU, Johnson could call an election to expand his conservative majority in Parliament and get Brexit passed at a time when the Tories are ahead in the polls, or have an election after a hypothetical crashing-out.  People in Britain are sick of this ongoing soap opera, and I'm tried of following it.

I have to hand it to Brits opposed to Brexit, though . . . they have plenty of power to block Johnson's initiatives.  In America, whenever Trump wants to pull our of anything - Syria being the latest example - Trump pulls out, and despite protests form his opponents, that's the end of it.  Thee's no appeal to a Trump decision.  Not even on protecting the Kurds, as Mitch McConnell is about to find out.     

Boris On the Brink

Boris Johnson - he of the messy blond Beatle haircut - made an effort to get a no-deal Brexit plan through Parliament and got . . . no deal.  The House of Commons wouldn't go along with it.  Then when he tried to call for snap elections to get something resembling legitimacy for his prime ministership, Labour Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn blocked the effort.  Johnson's efforts were stymied by defections from his own Conservative, or Tory, party, and numerous Tories resigned their Member of Parliament (MP) seats.  Two of them were relatives of famous British prime ministers.  One was the grandson of Winston Churchill, and the other was the brother of . . . Boris Johnson. 

The United Kingdom may still leave the European Union, but Johnson's efforts to subvert Parliament - including an effort to dissolve it - are being met with resistance from a bipartisan group of MPs, the sort of national interest you do not see among Republicans in Congress when Donald Trump tries to buy Greenland or, I don;t know, occupy the Rhineland.  British lawmakers stand up to Johnson when he tries to pull a fast one to take the U.K. out of the European Union.  Here, Trump can force the United States to make pullouts of its own, like withdrawals form the Paris Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, and that's the end of it.  No one can figure out how to appeal a Trump decision.

Just remember, the British perfected democracy long before we did.

What a Mess . . .

The inspector general of the United States is investigating FBI Director James Comey's handling of the investigation of Hillary Clinton's e-mails, while the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee has decided - reluctantly - to investigate charges of Russian hacking into the election.  And all this comes just before Donald Trump gets sworn in as President.  

Meanwhile, Trump has managed to tick off the entire European continent, dismissing NATO and the European Union as irrelevant and risking bitter relations between the United States and EU members - and, by cozying up to the Russians, possibly risking the independence of the Baltic States as well. 

And while all this is going on, Trump  has reached out to Martin Luther King III even as he dissed John Lewis because the Georgia Democratic House member and civil rights icon actually . . . expressed concern that the presidential election might have been rigged! Heavens to Betsy, a congressman actually spoke his mind!  What next?

Meanwhile . . . let the demonstrations begin!  People are marching to protect the Affordable Care Act.  A women's march against Trump is slated for Saturday.  People are calling their congressional representatives (both houses) every day to demand action against the policies of the incoming administration.  How cute - they actually think the Republican majorities in Congress will listen!  

I'm sorry . . . I just can't comment on this any more than I already have.  Suffice to say, the system is so broken, it's no wonder we'll never get any high-speed trains in this country. 

Luck of the Irish

Given the Irish bailout and the wrecked economy Ireland now faces, it's plain to see that if you had the luck of the Irish . . . you'd wish you were English instead. Why not? The English are among Ireland's biggest creditors now! Them and the European Union.

The Irish nation had been struggling to build an solid Irish state after receiving independence in 1922, following nine hundred years of occupation. After years of poverty and misery, Ireland seemed to have entered modernity with a prosperous middle class and a dynamic economy. It's all crashed down. I have no doubt in Ireland's ability to recover, but it's going to take a long time, of course. The country's attempt to achieve genuine independence has been severely compromised by this financial crisis, as it has always had great difficulty in achieving economic freedom to complement its political freedom. And it went through nine centuries of genocide, land confiscation, and religious oppression at the hands of an occupying power from which it has only begun to recover.

Right now, Enda Kenny, Ireland's new prime minister, is trying to get the European Union to lower the interest rate on money the country has borrowed but resisting EU demands to raise its corporate tax rate, fearing further disincentives for business to invest in the country. This crisis makes this St. Patrick's Day more bittersweet than previous ones. But again, I have hope. That's what the Irish have lived on for years.

To understand the Irish psyche, consider what the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan said, just after President Kennedy was assassinated. "I don't think there's any point in being Irish if you know the world is going to break your heart eventually."

But the Irish keep coming back to try again.

Happy St. Patrick's Day. :-)

Luck Of the Irish

Ireland became the latest country in the sixteen-nation zone that uses the euro currency to apply for a bailout, totalling nearly $140 billion, which would come from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The Irish Finance Ministry reported that the money was needed for a credit line for its state-backed banks, which have lost $69 billion as the Irish economy has tanked and its deficit has soared to 32 percent of its gross domestic product - ten times the amount allowed in the Eurozone. The Irish economy - not too long ago the envy of Europe - is strugling in the aftermath of the global recession and the Irish government's own decision to insure its banks against all losses. The Iberian countries - Spain and Portugal - may be next, due to their heavy borrowing costs on bond markets.

In what also amounts to a cosmic joke, several British banks are also lending money to Ireland in an effort to protect their own investments in Irish banks. This amounts to the Irish taking a helping hand from their stepmother country, a country that oppressed the Irish people for nine hundred years. Hmm, I wonder what the interest rates are on a loan like that?

Ireland hopes to get its books in order by 2014 with a program of severe budget cuts and tax increases. The prospect of being at the mercy of bankers from the United Kingdom should give them some incentive to get it done sooner.

Greece Is The Word

Greece is one of those countries that seemed to have achieved a model society after democracy was restored there in 1975 following a period of military rule. Like many European countries, it had a generous social welfare system and a stable economy. But the roof caved in almost as quickly as one of its own ruined temples earlier this year when, in the aftermath of a global recession, the Greek government revealed that it couldn't pay its bills. Having borrowed money to keep its overextended public sector afloat, Greece's budget deficit accounted for more than twelve percent of its gross domestic product, four times what the countries of the euro zone allows, and its national debt was reported at $410 billion.

Prime Minister George Papandreou attempted to put together an austerity plan that would raise taxes through the roof, cutting spending to the bone, and laying off public sector employees. Greek workers responded with raucous demonstrations in city streets, and the Greek government has had trouble coming up with a plan to satisfy the European Union. Athens's bid for a bailout of €45 billion ($59.8 billion) has been met with resistance by the Germans, who would pay for the largest share of any bailout, an Greece's credit rating was reduced to junk status.

Any good news in this? Yes. The euro is falling to lows against the U.S. dollar not seen in years.

Americans have often been derided for living beyond their means and letting their country head toward bankruptcy, but the Greeks are even more resistant to tightening the belts, and their crisis stems from spending on the kind of generous social programs Americans can only dream of enjoying. Except that the government can't get the Greek people to agree to any cuts to get their country out of trouble.

The Greeks are trying to get some kind of budget they can present to the EU in an effort to show how serious they are in getting its spending under control in order to get a bailout.

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.